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All,

Apparently, the force of 200 B-17's stationed in the Philippines were supposed to deter a Japanese attack.

They represented the biggest concentration of 'heavy-hitters' at that time.

If we look at the Japanese war plans, it is obviously correct that Pearl Harbour was of secondary importance. The big prize was the oil; hence Philippines had to be invaded.

That PH had to be neutralised (e.g. the carriers) was clear if the Japanese logic is followed. That it did not happen testifies to the failure of the Japanese plans.

Not so with the Philippines. Thanks to 'our friend' MacArthur, the Philippines represented a strategic defeat within hours.

The question is: how credible were 200 B-17's at that time? taking into account:

- The B-17 (YB-17A and B-17B) of 1941 was different to the later models B-17F found in Europe in 1943/4
- Less Powerful engines
- Bombing from altitude was still a bit of an art form
- Bombing ships from level flights not developed into what it became later.
- Not the full amount of the 200 B-17's having arrived yet

Did Japan regard the B-17 as a strategic asset at the same level as the US did?

If MacArthur had implemented his 'Rainbow 5' war plan, would it have made a difference?

How effective would the bombing of Formosa have been, taking into account that we are talking 1941 and not the precision bombing of the 1944/5 time frame?

Would he have lost his bomber force to the Zero fighters over Formosa?

As it was the Philippines fell relatively quickly and air power as a strategic asset was not proven this time around.

So, What IF
- there were 200 B-17's
- The Formosa bombing went in according to plan

What would be the consequences in terms of perceiving air force as a strategic asset now proven in combat

The likely outcome on Singapore (which the B-17's was supposed to protect)

Or: WHAT IF
- It was proven that high-level bombing was not accurate
- Bombing of ships is very difficult
- the (early) B-17 could not defend itself against the Zero's
- The loss rate was extremely high

Ivan
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