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Hello, first post. Now this is something I've been pondering after going through some Philippine history books. Searching the threads, there are a few topics that mention the anti-Spanish war of independence of the country so I'm relieved I'm not discussing a wholly new subject here.

In real life (OTL, heh), the separatist secret society Kataastaasang Kagalanggalang na Katipunan ng mga Anak ng Bayan (Highest and Most Respected Society of the Sons of the Country) was exposed to the Spanish colonial authorities in August 1896 and their members (Katipuneros)decided to start their revolution ASAP despite the lack of firearms. Their plan was to attack the capital, Manila, on 12:00 am midnight of the 29th/30th. After the decision to revolt was finalized on the 23rd/24th by the Katipunan ruling council, a manifesto was released by Katipunan leader Andres Bonifacio on the 28th:

...please let all the brethren know that on Saturday, the 29th of the current month, the revolution shall commence according to our agreement. For this purpose, it is necessary for all towns to rise simultaneously and attack Manila at the same time.
Now local historians have usually focused on "the first big battle" where Bonifacio led an attack on the town of San Juan del Monte to capture its powder magazine and water station. This attack was driven back with heavy casualties. But at the same time the various towns and areas around the walled city proper (Intramuros) rose up in revolt as well.

The conventional view is that the San Juan attack took place instead of the planned general offensive on Manila (possibly due to the lack of guns - hence, "let's attack the armory instead") and this triggered a general state of rebellion in the area, extending to the provinces surrounding Manila. However, recent books note that the fighting in the Manila region proper took place exactly where the Katipuneros advanced toward the city. A number of generals had been appointed to lead troops toward the city, taking different routes through the surrounding towns. This shows the battle plans were not some spur-of-the-moment thing. But Spanish intelligence had discovered these plans and thus lines of defense were set around Intramuros to receive and intercept the rebels. In short, the attack on Manila did take place.

Also, rebels from Cavite province were supposed to join the attack on the city. They didn't. Finally, a whole regiment of native infantry stationed in Manila was supposed to defect to the rebels, but the Spanish found out and transferred them to Mindanao island in the south before they could aid the rebels. It's likely Bonifacio did not find this out until it was too late.

Where does the POD come in? Before he issued the above manifesto on the 28th but after the decision to revolt had been made, Bonifacio received a written protest by one of the two Katipunan councils in Cavite who were against starting the revolt because they lacked guns and ammo. He also considered retreating to the mountains to build a fortress for the Katipunan but was advised against this because he was needed in the field for the upcoming battle. Now the Spanish Governor-General had ordered the disciplinary transfer of the suspect native regiment on the 25th after a skirmish between rebels and Civil Guards was brought to his attention.

POD: Word reaches Bonifacio that the sympathetic native regiment is going to be transferred on the day of the planned offensive itself.

As I imagine it, the double whammy of unreliable troops from Cavite and the removal of the native colonial troops from the scene forces Bonifacio to call off the Manila offensive. If the Spanish know about the planned defection, they must know about his battle plans as well. Instead of attempting to take out the government in one coordinated attack (cutting off the head of the snake, as one historian put it), he is forced to order his men to engage in a protracted guerrilla war, with an emphasis on seizing what guns they can from civil guard outposts and hiding in the mountains in forts that will have to be built. He endorses this hit-and-run plan in the manifesto of the 28th. Later, the San Juan armory is judged too dangerous to attack because of the Spanish defense lines.

In reality Bonifacio was forced to wage war guerrilla fashion after defeats in San Juan and a couple other places. I've made him take this tack earlier. This was the way for rebels pretty much everywhere except Cavite, because the rebels there succeeded in capturing virtually the entire province. This was due in no small part to the withdrawal of the Spanish troops there to counter the rebels in the Manila area.
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