Andrés Novales was a Filipino soldier who led a brief revolt against Spanish colonial rule in June 1, 1823. Unfortunately for him, although he and his followers captured several important buildings in Manila, they failed to seize Fort Santiago since its commander, despite being Andrés' brother, refused to open its gates. As a result, the revolt was crushed by the Spanish the next day, and Novales was executed.
But what if the rebels managed to take over the fort somehow, giving them a strong defensive position as well as control of Manila? Could they take over the rest of the Philippines, or would the Spanish trap them in the capital and shell it to smithereens?
What would be the consequences of an independent Philippines so much earlier than IOTL? Could they become a mini-Japan of sorts?
This would depend. But Philippines does have technological advantage from 1823 versus the neighbors. Industrialization has not happened. Philippines is still capable of building the largest ship possible. It is the 1890s equivalent of a battleship. Human development is still higher due to Spain focusing on Philippines as a trading nation along that comes with it, shipbuilding and education.
Philippines does not have a developed mining industry nor an agriculture industry yet despite the existence of agriculture and mining. The Spanish did not develop crops like sugar until 1850-60s with British investment.
Philippines pre 1820s relies on trade and shipbuilding, kind of like a poorer version of the Dutch who's economy is in Trade and shipbuilding.
At Pod, Philippines or even just Luzon has a larger economy than Chile. So you can get an idea how much money the rebels can squeeze once you get from independence or during the rebellion.
After independence, it really depends. If you want it to have the same problems as Spanish Americas, you can due to its cultural affinity specially the initial rebels. But it does not have neighbors that are too powerful (Mexico vs USA) or cannot expand further due to having the Spanish speaking neighbors. Philippine neighbors are like more backward than Spain. South you got Brunei, Moros and Celebes. North got China and Japan. West got Vietnam, Thailand. The Dutch have not fully conquered Indonesia, while the British have not made it in Brunei yet. Even the Javan war vs Dutch has not started yet.
There is a high chance that Philippines could take advantage of this weakness like growing opium and selling it to China which I agree with
@Slime_blob s take on opium.
What would an independent Philippines look like at this time, in regards to its culture and economy? Novales was proclaimed an emperor so it'd probably be some kind of monarchy (at least at first), but beyond that, did the rebels have a plan on how to govern the archipelago? Most importantly, would they be able to defeat the Spanish garrison at Pampanga if they consolidated their hold over Intramuros?
The Spanish garrison can turn if they want to. Novales is part of the Spanish Army. The rebellion is due to discrimination felt by criollos and mestizos. There are more of them than the Iberian born Spanish even within the Spanish Army and Navy including in garrisons.
But if they don't turn it is a 50% chance having the same knowledge, tech and doctrine. The Rebels also have the loyalty of Manila populace. I just dont know if the Spanish can recruit native Indios to fight the mestizo rebels much like during the Seven years war when it was an easy decision for any local to join Spain vs an invading British army.
So I just found out about this:
en.wikipedia.org
Could Novales and the Bohol rebels ally against the Spanish?
Bohol rebels are far and live in the mountains. Nor do they have significant weapons and training as the Spanish. It is easier to convince the Spanish garrison in Bohol or nearby islands- Spanish white born in the Philippines, Insulares, or the Americanos, migrants from Americas, or mestizos, mixed race soldiers.
One more thing, could the
Sultanate of Maguindanao take advantage of the turmoil in Luzon to extend its authority over all of Mindanao? Perhaps if the British or Dutch (who had colonies nearby) gave them some weapons?
Maguindanao or the Moro sultanates can return back the Pagans as tributaries. The Moros dont have the strength to occupy a more populous Pagan population.
They can attack Christian settlements in Mindanao near them. Zamboanga may be harder to crack due to its fortification and garrison. But doable on ideal conditions, preparation, timing, etc.
The Christian garrisons near Mindanao or in Mindanao either join or not the rebels. They are not the same as the garrison in Luzon. If they do all join, the Spanish forces/rebel forces in the south are still full strength not unless they are going to fight among themselves.
The British and the Dutch can sell Moro weapons. But the one occupying Manila will always have more money or coin, just a food for thought.
