So
@Namayan made a very interesting post in the Philippine politics thread regarding the Magsaysay and Garcia administrations, which I'll quote here:
Considering the points made in this post, is it possible the Philippines could have more infrastructure ITTL, particularly when it comes to rail transport? Would the
Filipino First policy still happen? Assuming the answer is no, how would the Philippine economy be affected?
I think Magsaysay's projects would have gone ahead. There would be more railroads throughout Luzon. The Filipino First Policy will definitely happen, but I can't say much how it will change the economy for I am unfamiliar on that aspect.
Filipino First Policy is not wrong per se. It simply recommends Filipino citizens for business first and foremost.
What discouraged investments are the policies like tariffs. Before Garcia, the new and necessary industries act was in place which gave industries tax exemptions. That law was changed with a combination of Garcias tax and tariffs discouraged foreigner owners to expand industry or invest. There also wont be devaluation of the peso keeping it pegged to dollar. US wont do much as long as the foreign policies are very pro active in favor US similiar to Magsaysay. US has a history of letting local policies be as long as foreign policy is aligned.
Garcia also lacked the influence Magsaysay. That could get away with better deals with US and World Bank loans, loans which in OTL President Garcia could not get since he could not managed financially as Quirino or Magsaysay.
e.g. Iligan steel mills needed money to expand which Magsaysay can easily finance thru fiscal management or loans. During Garcias time it was stagnant. Could get only loans during Macapagal and was force to sell to a private ownership to get loans.
This would push steel production earlier. So by the time assuming Korean POSCO becomes alive in 1968, iligan steel mills could produce 500k tons of steel at least per annum.
All this moot if Macapagal or Marcos wins the presidency in ATL. Macapagal selling off government owned corporations, cancelling rail projects puttng highways while a Marcos presidency will be bad financially and bureaucratic culture and political tradition.
Let us say Magsaysay and US gets Magsaysay ally like Manuel Manahan elected in 1961.
The policies would be the same as Magsaysay. free market enterprise mixed with government owned corporations. At this point government owned corporations are rail, steel, shipbuilding,cement, etc. Which differs from OTL south Korea of chaebols.
Land reform and more irrigation (which was Magsaysay doing before his death)would chop more lands to 5 to 12 hectares resulting into better lives for poor rural populace but bad for market prices, consumers and production due to lack of scale. There would also better social net like housing. This would result also into less attraction to Communist revival like OTL NPA in 1969.
Foreign policy most likely will send a large amount of troops to Vietnam or wherever US needs allied contribution like in Laos. A Magsaysay and Manahan presidency could effect Permesta rebellion, Konfrontasi and West Papua though,
If the soviets starts arming Indonesia like OTL Magsaysay/Manahan would probably enlarge the navy more to counter the perceive threat.
This could also effect ASEAN and its formation in 1967. Or even the formation of Malaysia. Giving a very small chance with an independent Sabah and Sarawak with a more nosy Philippines.
Regional offices of American companies that were once based in Manila that will move to Singapore in OTL will stay in the Philippines. E.g. IBM
Philippines under Magsaysay leadership wont be haven for foreign investments like the semiconductor factories that will be invested in Hong Kong and Taiwan in early 1960s. But Philippine economy would be ahead of South Korean in heavy industries by 1969 and US will most likely buy goods to supply Vietnam war or any regional war from Philippines under Magsaysay or Manahan than South Korea led by Park Chung Hee.
