Philipene insurrection halted

Outline for an Alternate History World.
Intended for Common Creative License release
by Alan B. Cohen

Common point with our world: Spanish American War, 1898.
Point of departure: Philippine revolutionaries accept American promises of future independence instead of continuing their previous rebellions against Spain (similar to the deal accepted by uhe Cuban revolutionaries).

Instead of wearing American troops out in a counter-insurgency war, American Manifest Destiny proponents turn their attention to Mexico and the Central American region (in our timeline, just Panama and later interference in banana republics). U.S. buys Baja California to bolster West Coast defenses and annexes Panama and Nicaragua. Panama Canal is built on American territory. The U.S. buys the Dutch West Indies for defense of its territories in Central America.

Since the U.S. populace has not turned isolationist following a Philipene insurrection, the U.S. enters The Great War in 1915, following the sinking of the Lusitania in May. Massive American forces upset the balance of the trench war early in 1916; the war is over in the West in 1917. The new democratic government in Russia sues for an indecisive peace in the East; the Bolshevik revolution fails with U.S., British, and French support for the new Russian government.
On the heels of the great victory, Wilson pushes League of Nations membership through Congress. The Treaty of Zurich ends the war in Europe. The war, while painful, does not destroy the next generation of British and French populations. U.S. is ceded the British West Indies and Jamaica for its support in the Great War. With the exception of Hispanola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic), the Gulf of Mexico is an American lake. Mexico, still restive, is squeezed between the American states to the north and its new territories to the south and west. The reparations levied on Germany are much less severe than those that would have been levied at Versailles. The Kaiser is not removed and the Wiemar Republic doesn't happen. Austria-Hungary is dismantled; Polanski, Croatia, Slovakia, and Czechia become countries. Serbia expands into what would have been the rest of Yugoslavia, including MonteNegro.

While inflation runs rampant in Europe and South America in the Twenties, it never reaches the level it did in our timeline. Fascists still come to power in Italy, Spain and Argentina. But in Germany, the Nazis fall to infighting, never gain a foothold, Adolf Hitler dies in the violence.

The Thirties start with a world-wide recession, following trade-limiting tariff wars and the collapse of the American stock market. The U.S. recovers quickly with its economic dominance of the whole continent. Canada, while still independent and part of the incipient British Commonwealth, is economically tied to its southern neighbor. Newfoundland, nominally independent, grows closer to Canada while Quebec becomes more restive as it looks to a vibrant Paris.
A still expanding Manifest Destiny U.S., needing the markets of South America to recover from the depression, occupies the rest of Columbia. Having been denied their independence by the continued Manifest Destiny-controlled American government, revolution breaks out in Cuba, Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Philippines.

When the Kaiser attempts to re-militarize in 1936, France and Britain stop their resumed squabbling and step in to prevent the rearming of Germany. Italy is once again trying to expand in to Ethiopia to link Eritrea with Italian Somalia. Croatia and Serbia are skirmishing again. In the mean time, democracy has failed in Russia and the autocratic nobles have taken over, returning Russia to semi-feudal anarchy. The Baltic countries, taking advantage of the Russian disruption, break free of Russian domination and form a defense pact with France, Polanski, and Finland. Polanski, seeking its ancient glory, attacks and annexes Lithuania and Belarussia (from Russia). The Ukraine breaks free from Russian domination, as do many of the Caucusian ethnic groups.

In Asia, Japanese expansion continues as in our timeline. First Korea and Manchuria, later China and Taiwan. The U.S. is alarmed as the Japanese empire expands towards its Philippine territory and commercial interests in China. After earlier threats, cuts off oil and scrap metal shipments to the empire. In early 1941, Japan lashes out, attacking American military bases throughout Asia and the Pacific. The Pacific War has begun. The empire moves, quickly seizing the Philippines, Guam, Midway and Hawaii. To hold their flank, the American forces bolster the Aleutians, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California as the only places to respond. Emboldened, Japan puts backup plans in action to get stable oil and rubber supplies by attacking Malaya, Singapore, and the British and Dutch East Indies. Britain and Holland declare war on Japan. France, fearing for its control of already restive Indochina, backs out of its treaties with Britain, claiming they only apply to European conflicts. Tahiti and other French territories in the Pacific fall under Japanese 'protection' and are ignored in Europe. Holland's only option is a small number of troops to support British troops in India and China. However, the British Navy is effective in defending Australia and New Zealand from Japanese invasion.

Canadian troops join American troops defending Alaska and the West Coast. American troops are sent to Australia to prevent Japan from overrunning New Guinea. The war in the western Pacific becomes a holding action as the U.S. focuses on regaining Hawaii and Midway as the major stepping stones to regaining the Pacific. But American troops are also busy fighting in Cuba and Columbia. Retaking Hawaii from San Diego and San Francisco bases is difficult, given the distances and marauding Japanese submarines The islands are not recaptured until mid-1943. Since the Allies do not attempt to develop the atomic bomb (Nazi Germany doesn't exist), Ultimately, a conventional seaborne invasion of the Japanese home islands is necessary in 1947. The Japanese-developed jet and rocket interceptors are effective short-range defensive weapons while the British-developed jet bombers don't have adequate range in the Pacific, except in China. The Communist warlords come to power in China. Backed by Russian warlords from Siberia and reinvigorated Mongols, Chinese troops occupy Korea, then attack the Japanese home islands. The Yellow Bloodbath started in the Thirties continues unabated. Casualties are very high on both sides; millions of Japanese, Chinese, and Spanish-speaking U.S.-led troops die by the Pacific War's end in 1952.

Elsewhere, India (united) and Indochina force their independence. Persia regains its independence from the British and war breaks out between an Egyptian-led Sunni Arab coalition and Shiite Persia. Taking advantage of the disruptions all around, Kurdistan reemerges from Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. Israel never comes into existence. Boer-led South Africa expands northward in the former German, Portuguese, and British colonies with the tacit acceptance of the British and Americans who need the seaways around Africa as the Suez Canal is blocked by the Middle East War. Argentina goes to war with Chile and Bolivia for their mineral resources, becoming the predominate Spanish speaking section of South America. Paraguay is ignored as not worth the effort to occupy. Brazil takes the three Guineas to defend against U.S. expansion. Uruguay retains a tenuous independence from its neighbors as the Switzerland of South America. French colonies in North Africa break free after significant and long wars for independence. Russia remains in internal turmoil.
 
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