Philip of Swabia lives...effects on HRE and "Regno" in Sicily

If Philip of Swabia, King of the Germans, is not assassinated by the mad Count Otto VIII of Bavaria what would the future hold for the HRE and Sicily? By all accounts Philip was an effective ruler and true heir of his father (Barbarossa) and brother (the ambitious Henry VI), at the moment of his death he was very crush to crushing the Welf revolt let by his primary competitor for the German throne, Otto IV.

If he survives, goes on to secure the HRE and remains upon its throne what happens to Frederick II Hohenstaufen as he comes of age? Will Frederick rule over Sicily while Philip reigns in Germany? What sorts of tensions could one expect between these two rulers, especially if Philip eventually has a son who could claim the realm as his heir?
 
Well, at the time of his OTL death, Philip had no surviving sons and a brood of daughters, none of whom were of marriageable age at the time. So his heir would either be Frederick of Sicily or a son-in-law, who might not be their OTL husbands.
 
There is a lot of things to consider: supposing Philip got a son (he was 31 and his wife 29, it's possible) things get better.

After Henry VI's death, his widow Constance made sure that Frederick and Sicily would be separated from the Empire, so when Frederick (forever know as just Frederick I of Sicily) comes of age he would be pretty disinterested in the HRE.

One thing that I find interesting (but maybe a stretch) is that Philip was also Duke of Tuscany, but to win the Imperial coronation he was willing to hand over to the Pope's nephew. Why is it important? With Imperial power pretty much broken after Legnano and with Philip having no major success down there like Henry's conquest of Sicily, we may have a Emperor that is pretty much absent and negligent of Italy (of course, I maybe daydreaming :rolleyes:)
 
It would certainly possible for Philip to still have a son, and, as mentioned above, Constance's separation of the Sicilian and German realms would leave Philip and any heirs focused on centralizing HRE power in Germany...
 
The question is how they centralize Germany. What's the power base for the Staufens?

The Power base would be in Swabia (the traditional realm of the family), as well as any Welf territory Philip seizes from Otto IV Welf during the Civil War over the throne.

Would Philip make any forays south of the Alps into Lombardy or Tuscany as his father and brother had attempted? I would assume so once he has defeated the Welfs...

And last but not least, what would OTLs Frederick II of Sicily do in this scenario? Would he focus upon the Regno and expand into N. Africa and perhaps the Holy Land?
 
The powerbase of the Hohenstaufen wasn't only in Swabia, they also were the heirs of the dynastic lands of the Salian dynasty in Franconia. Moreover at this point there still were substantial Imperial lands throughout the Empire, these only lost significance during the reign of Charles IV, though they were in decline since the Great Interregnum.
 
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Here is map of the "imperial lands" during Freddy II's reign.

heiliges-roemisches-reich-ueberblick.jpg
 
@Monter: that map combines imperial lands and Hohenstaufen dynastic lands. Edit: OTOH I haven't seen similar maps, which distinguish between the two.

Also by the reign of Philip of Swabia, the Welf powerbase had been broken down significantly and redistributed between various dynasties.
 
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@Monter: that map combines imperial lands and Hohenstaufen dynastic lands. Edit: OTOH I haven't seen similar maps, which distinguish between the two.

Also by the reign of Philip of Swabia, the Welf powerbase had been broken down significantly and redistributed between various dynasties.

The D'Estes lost their control of Milan as well, if the Hohenstauffens got what they wanted, they would have transferred Provence to the House of Toulouse..but Aragon were more stronger than the Hohestauffens and the Capets.
 
The D'Estes lost their control of Milan as well, if the Hohenstauffens got what they wanted, they would have transferred Provence to the House of Toulouse..but Aragon were more stronger than the Hohestauffens and the Capets.

Actually the house of Toulouse managed to get a part of the Provence, a part of the northwest was separated from the county of Provence creating the margraviate of Provence for the house of Toulouse. Though I agree, that the house of Barcelona got a larger share of the Provence.
 
If Philip survives after 1208, what are his chances of expanding down into Tuscany? The area was known to have many Ghibelline supporters/towns present...especially Pisa.
 
Also, from what I've read Philip appeared to have been quite focused upon affairs in the German lands during his reign...quite understandable considering the conflict with Otto IV Welf. Perhaps with a longer reign (perhaps until say, 1230) he could have furthered the hold of his dynasty on the Imperial throne...per the Erbreichsplan
 
Philip was already giving up Tuscany to Innocent III in order to reconciliate the Crown with the Church.

Also, Philip wouldn't be able to ensure Primogeniture since it pretty much questions his legitimacy. Maybe his son or grandson.
 
Philip was already giving up Tuscany to Innocent III in order to reconciliate the Crown with the Church.

Also, Philip wouldn't be able to ensure Primogeniture since it pretty much questions his legitimacy. Maybe his son or grandson.

IOTL the reconciliation finally fell through though; and Tuscany would have been granted to a cousin of Innocence III, who had to marry a daughter of Philip of Swabia. I'm not sure, that said cousin would have been granted all the Matildine lands Philip had possessed. Maybe, like how the Hohenstaufen handled the former stem duchies Saxony and Bavaria, he'd grant possessions outside Tuscany to someone else? (Or keep those himself.) OTL Matilda of Tuscany also had possessions in Lombardy, Emilia and Romagna, outside Tuscany.
 
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