Philip II of Spain dies in 1559

Actualy I think the Dutch would prefer that. The trouble begins with the reformormation. When the Netherlands is slowly turning protestant, it suddenly becomes a lot harder to ignore them (I doubt a catholic monarch would allow a significant part of their realm turn protestant in the 16th century). A good ruler would be able to handle it, but is hard. A Dutch revolt is still likely, but not unavoidable.

Believe it or not, the Protestants were a minority even in the Dutch provinces when the rebellion began, albeit a powerful one--and there's a good chance without Philip's heavy-handed championing of Catholicism, they might have stayed one.
 
Yeah.

Initially (~1550-1570), the population was very uncaring about religion at all. The excesses of the RC Church meant most were not really interested in that church anymore, but around ~1540-1560 the other side of the medal were people like the anabaptists who had made a real mess of things during the Munster Rebellion, so also not a great example to follow.

It was only when the political situation and especially the heavyhanded measures of Alba (e.g. the 'Blood Council') forced people to make a choice that most people really made the choice for the Reformation or back to the RC Church.
 
Nothing like associating fervent Catholicism with all the things that people were objecting to to get people looking at it as a bad thing.
 
Carlos regularly declared himself in love with Anne of Austria (who he'd never met) and willing to accept no other bride. How much this was a sincere attitude on his part, and how much it was a political pose meant to scare away craziness like the Juanna marriage is impossible to tell.
Before being engaged with Anne of Austria he was (almost?) engaged with Elizabeth of Valois and if Philip II die before marry Elizabeth, Carlos will likely send someone to Henri to assure the King who we will marry Elizabeth instead of his father without any trouble for preserving the peace and the treaty
 
As I understand it that marriage with Anne was only considered a while after Cateau-Cambresis, when her mother (his aunt) Maria lamented she couldn't marry him herself. He was already crazy and had suffered his accident by then. Perhaps if he inherits earlier, prior to his accident, and marriage to Juanna is a condition that Cortés imposes..?
 
Didn't Mary Queen of Scots try to negotiate a marriage with Don Carlos IOTL? Maybe he could accept that without his father to be against it.
 
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