Petropavlosk never hit mines

What would happen if Russian pre-dreadnought battleship Petropavlosk never hit a mine? Thus the famous Admiral Makarov was never killed and was able to participate in the coming Tsushima battle?
 

Germaniac

Donor
THe only way Russia is avoiding Tushima is if they dont enter the tushima straights, They Must go around Japan and take the longer route if they are going to survive. It doesnt matter who is leading the fleet they are trapped suprised and destroyed if the battle happens in the Tushima straights.
 
RJW was so ASBish, any change (especially as massive as keeping most able Russian admiral alive) is bound to produce an avalanche of consequences.
 
What would happen if Russian pre-dreadnought battleship Petropavlosk never hit a mine? Thus the famous Admiral Makarov was never killed and was able to participate in the coming Tsushima battle?

The best that Makarov can do is either to keep his fleet in tact as a 'fleet in being' in order to keep Togo occupied while the Second Pacific Squadron comes around the world or successfully evacuate his ships from Port Arthur and get them to Vladivostock. The first is very hard to do since Port Arthur was eventually cut off from other Russian forces and eventually besieged. Barring a lucky strike, as in Vitegift being killed, its likely that Makarov could possibly get his forces to Vladivostock and continue to threaten Japanese shipping lanes between the Home Islands and Korea/China.

The best long term possibility would be that the Battle of Tsushima still occurs with the Russians being defeated and Makarov, safe in Vladivostock, can be the nucleus of the rebuilding of a newer and stronger Russian fleet. Also Russia will continue to have a major Far East presence, tho the fleet is now stationed out of Vladivostock.
 
I think that excepting a huge ASB like aliens abducting the entire Japanese fleet, Russia still would've been porked. Japanese shells were faaar more effective, as the Russians noted in their reports about Port Arthur and Tsushima, Russian fuses were defective potentially 80% of the time (estimate from a Russian officer on the flagship), the Japanese were faaar better gunners, and the Russians had older ships than the Japanese. I think if the Petropavlosk hadn't hit a mine and Tsushima hadn't happened, it would've been sunk at a later naval battle.
 
RJW was so ASBish, any change (especially as massive as keeping most able Russian admiral alive) is bound to produce an avalanche of consequences.

I would go as far as to say that. I agre that makarov surviving will have a major influence on the course of the war, but the odds were never quite as long as you seem to be suggesting.

IMO, the question is what does Makarov do before his reinforcements arrive. Left to his own devices, he may prove a match for Togo. But if the Russians are forced into any scenario where their fleet has to fight a tsushima style action, as postulated in the OP, the Baltic fleet is in deep trouble.
 
I agre that makarov surviving will have a major influence on the course of the war, but the odds were never quite as long as you seem to be suggesting.
Try to assess what would happen on Western Front in WWII if Eisenhower, Patton, Monti are killed within 6 months of war and each V2 hit either major military command center, or main ammunition storage, or incapacitates main railway hub or port in Great Britain. That's essentially what happened to Russia in RJW. Number of Japan's lucky shots would make any self-respecting statistician cringe in disbelief.
 
I think that excepting a huge ASB like aliens abducting the entire Japanese fleet, Russia still would've been porked. Japanese shells were faaar more effective, as the Russians noted in their reports about Port Arthur and Tsushima, Russian fuses were defective potentially 80% of the time (estimate from a Russian officer on the flagship), the Japanese were faaar better gunners, and the Russians had older ships than the Japanese. I think if the Petropavlosk hadn't hit a mine and Tsushima hadn't happened, it would've been sunk at a later naval battle.

I'm not sure where you're getting all this. The Russians had a pretty effective fleet and an excellent commander in Makarov. Their greatest problem was wear-and-tear and overloading due to the long voyage. With effective leadership the Japanese were rather outclassed - their individual ships were generally a bit better, but the Russians had a lot more of them. I think you're vastly overrating the Japanese and vastly underrating the Russians.

I can't think of any other conflict, ever, where one side had so many incredibly unlikely lucky things happen, and the death of Makarov is at the top of the list.
 
My information came from the statement of a Russian officer on board the Russian flagship at Tsushima published in The Mammoth Book of Naval Battles. The officer is Valdimir Semenoff and he remarks that he couldn't hardly see any hits at all on the Japanese fleet, meanwhile the Suvoroff was getting devestated.
 
My information came from the statement of a Russian officer on board the Russian flagship at Tsushima published in The Mammoth Book of Naval Battles. The officer is Valdimir Semenoff and he remarks that he couldn't hardly see any hits at all on the Japanese fleet, meanwhile the Suvoroff was getting devestated.

An explanation I have read (will look for links later) is that the Japanese used picric acid as the main component of their HE shells, while Russians used dynamite. As the latter is far more likely to detonate from hitting - or from too rapid acceleration - Russian gunners had to use smaller powder loads in the cannons to reduce the danger of premature shell explosions,, resulting in a smaller reach. Japanese ships could fire at the Russian fleet from a safe distance.
 
Well, I know their detonating charges were small guncotton charges which were fairly unreliable, so that would've contributed, but as far as anything I've read, the Russians were in range but I dunno.
 
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