Peter the Great Killed as a Child

If the plot by Princess Sophia against her half brother, later to become Peter the Great, had succeeded, would the lack of the reforms he instituted during his reign prevent Russia from expanding East?
If so, who would fill the vacuum? The Qing Dynasty?
And would they have the will or means to begin colonising the West coast of the Americas, as Russia did?
 
Actually, Russia's eastern expansion was set in stone by Ivan the Terrible's conquest of Astrakhan and Sibir. With those subjugated it was merely a question of "when", not "if".
 
First off, Sophia unchallenged ends in either of two ways: she and Golitsyn get their way and Russia modernises albeit on a totally different trajectory from Peter's - or the boyars collude with the church and restrain her, leading to Muscovite business as usual, whatever that may be.

Secondly, Russia had reached the Pacific already in Alexei's time. That is not going to change. Sophia's Nerchinsk treaty with China was actually upheld by Peter. In fact, their foreign policy seems to have been hugely similar. Anti-Turk, anti-Swede, anti-Persian. Peace with Qing. Peacetime influence over Poland. She was more pro-Austrian, he was more pro-Dutch, but hey.

Thirdly, if Golitsyn's land reform actually takes place (a big, huge if), you might actually get a lot of free but landless settlers (not wishing to get caught in the landowners' boundary-beating contests) heading out east to farm, fish and collect yasak part-time. Siberia may actually profit, though that's hard to say either way.

And just because Qing could potentially take over the Amur valley, it does not mean they would suddenly develop ocean-going ambitions. On the other hand, Sophia's government is unlikely to be as navy-focused as Peter's, so Russia may never get Alaska at all, or perhaps rely on the promyshelnniki, or perhaps even the Dutch instead.
 
First off, Sophia unchallenged ends in either of two ways: she and Golitsyn get their way and Russia modernises albeit on a totally different trajectory from Peter's - or the boyars collude with the church and restrain her, leading to Muscovite business as usual, whatever that may be.

Secondly, Russia had reached the Pacific already in Alexei's time. That is not going to change. Sophia's Nerchinsk treaty with China was actually upheld by Peter. In fact, their foreign policy seems to have been hugely similar. Anti-Turk, anti-Swede, anti-Persian. Peace with Qing. Peacetime influence over Poland. She was more pro-Austrian, he was more pro-Dutch, but hey.

Thirdly, if Golitsyn's land reform actually takes place (a big, huge if), you might actually get a lot of free but landless settlers (not wishing to get caught in the landowners' boundary-beating contests) heading out east to farm, fish and collect yasak part-time. Siberia may actually profit, though that's hard to say either way.

And just because Qing could potentially take over the Amur valley, it does not mean they would suddenly develop ocean-going ambitions. On the other hand, Sophia's government is unlikely to be as navy-focused as Peter's, so Russia may never get Alaska at all, or perhaps rely on the promyshelnniki, or perhaps even the Dutch instead.


I think sophia would have helped russia a lot more then Peter did.

and about the naval question I think that maybe under a later emperor would probably colonise Alaska... maybe that will be better for russia.
 
No Peter very likely means a rather different Great Northern War - and more Swedish control over Estonia. It could also mean all kinds of butterflies in Poland.
 
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