Let's say this is an accident (to prevent bringing in more factionalism than is needed for the POD)
His heir is Alexius, a young adult and capable of taking the throne for himself
A lot of Peter's OTL reforms remain half-done or not-yet-done
Poltava is only two years previous, and IIRC he recently lost Azov back to the Ottomans
So, what is Russia's path through history now ?
Best Regards
Grey Wolf