Peter I is dead in 1710

In October of 1710 “capitulation” had signed by Boris Sheremetev on one side and the Baltic nobility and burghers on the other confirming existing laws and privileges of the provinces swearing oath of loyalty to Peter; earlier agreements with August flew out of the window (you know, “window to Europe”).

During the celebrations (which traditionally included heavy drinking of low quality vodka) Peter got an aggravated fit of the urinary tract (one of his numerous health problems). The doctors performed a surgery but it ended with a gangrene and in few days Peter died without regaining a consciousness.

Framework:

Family:

Alexei - 20 years old, undisputed successor, not married yet but already betrothed to emperor’s niece. Going to marry her within a year.

Catherine - presumably secretly married to Peter in 1707 (but this may not count, in OTL he later married her officially); there are 2 daughters, Anna and Elizabeth

Political situation:

Charles is in the Ottoman Empire but the GNW is not over even if because he does not want to make peace involving any territorial losses.

In the PLC August is restored but, as I said, Livonia is out of his reach.

At home Alexei has support of pretty much everybody in “who is who” list except for Menshikov who was intriguing against him and humiliating him for years, especially after he managed to supply Peter with Martha Skavronskaya (Catherine). Menshikov is a powerful figure but with Peter’s death his power is gone and military establishment, led by Fieldmarshal Sheremetev and Anikita Repnin (Governor General of Riga) remains loyal to the legitimate (and only) heir.

Menshikov is accused of embezzlement and a number of other crimes, his property is confiscated and he sent to die in Siberia.

Alexei inherits:

An army with a somewhat overblown reputation after Poltava and conquest of Baltica

A navy which does not yet have any reputation

Administrative system in a state of the never-ending transition. Boyar Duma still formally exists but it was not called for years (last mentioning is in 1708) and everything is decided in Personal Chancellory and “Consillium” which is something like Council of Ministers (in OTL Governing Senate was created only in 1711). To address a popular misconception, there are no long-bearded conservative boyars in a traditional dress hiding in the dark corners and waiting for return of the good all times: all of those who matter are clean shaved, wearing western costumes and wigs and actively engaged in military and civic administration.

Seriously empty treasury and economy and society under a constant barrage of Peter’s regulations.

Most of what we know about Alexei is a byproduct of Peter’s PR campaign launched to justify his murder but it seems that he was well-educated (had German tutors, knew French and German, studied “politics”, history, geometry and fortification), traveled abroad. By 1710 was actively involved in recruiting of the new troops and fortification of Moscow (not to his father’s satisfaction mostly because he went to visit his mother).

Presumably, he was not too fond of Peter’s naval program but, to be fair, by 1710, with a lot of money and effort being spent, newly built Baltic fleet had very little to show.

As a capital he seemingly preferred Moscow but in OTL St-Petersburg did not became an official capital until 1713 and in 1728 - 32 capital was moved back to Moscow without visible negative impact on the Russian state.

Most probably, Alexei is not going to conduct aggressive ‘imperial’ policy of his father: attempt to convert Baltic Sea into the Russian lake, war with the Ottomans, invasion of Persia. OTOH, he would have to continue the GNW - simply giving away the conquests is not a realistic option.

Now, how things can proceed from this point on?
 
I think Alexei would have to relax his grip on his nobles a bit considering his fathers despotism is what led to him gaining supporters otl, and he was avowedly Pacific compared to his father, so even though he’d continue the GNW, I think he’d be looking to extricate himself from it without looking like he’s just given up everything his father obtained- perhaps he could convince Charles to allow the territorial losses in return for an uncontested sphere of influence in the plc, or he spins it as a victory if he returns some of the Swedish Baltic in return for uncontested influence in the plc himself, with perhaps annexation of sparsely populated and rebellious but strategically important polish Ukraine.

He would likely break off his engagement and marry a Russian girl, which probably means a return to brideshows considering how much he hated that he was being forced to marry a westerner. Moreover, considering the strength of the autocrat in relation to his subjects I can see him actually outlawing German and french use in court, and perhaps banning as many western elements at court as he could- while there are no conservative Boyars crawling out of the woodwork, to curry favour with the tsar I think it’s plausible that boyars feign traditionalism.

I’m pretty sure the navies funding would be pretty inconsequential and after the gnw is concluded, the army too is likely to see massive funding cuts to save money.

I also potentially see a return of a Russian patriarchy rather than synod considering how important his mothers orthodox religion was to Alexei.
 
Sweden had raised a new army after Poltava, which won the battle of Helsingborg in February 1710. OTL this army was shipped to Germany to protect Sweden's German provinces against Hannover-Lubeck, Denmark and Brandenburg-Prussia, won at Gadebusch 1712 but was encirkled and forced to surrender at Tönning 1713.

If Peter dies, Karl XII might take it as a sign of divine providence and return to Sweden to take this army to Ingria to finally defeat Russia instead of as OTL stay in the Ottoman Empire and try to provoke the OTL battle of Prut.

How would Alexei and the military establishment handle a renewed Swedish invasion (even if just in Ingria) or the OTL Prut situation? The Swedes alleged that Peter bribed the Ottoman leadership to allow him to escape being surrounded OTL.
 
The duke of Brunswick breaks his daughter's betrothal to Alexei and offers her to Carl XII instead (he essentially played coin toss with Charlotte).

There's a defunct TL called "A Brief History of the House of Hannover" which incorporates Pyotr dying before Alexei is married. Alexei marries Tatiana Kuriakina (?) and Stanislas Leszczynski holds on as king of Poland.
 
The duke of Brunswick breaks his daughter's betrothal to Alexei and offers her to Carl XII instead (he essentially played coin toss with Charlotte).

There's a defunct TL called "A Brief History of the House of Hannover" which incorporates Pyotr dying before Alexei is married. Alexei marries Tatiana Kuriakina (?) and Stanislas Leszczynski holds on as king of Poland.

Sorry, but I see no logic in this schema: why would marriage to heir of the throne be cancelled by a single reason of him becoming a monarch? If anything, marriage becomes more desirable.
 
Kurakina (Kuriakin is a "Man from UNCLE" character). And it was rejected because the girl is his maternal first cousin. I remember cause I stuck the nose in nitpicking this error.

My mistake.

Sorry, but I see no logic in this schema: why would marriage to heir of the throne be cancelled by a single reason of him becoming a monarch? If anything, marriage becomes more desirable.

Because Alexei is essentially an uknown quantity. Ludwig Rudolf/Anton Ulrich wed Charlotte to Alexei because Pyotr was winning. With Pyotr dead and Alexei's opinion on the war being decidedly less grandiose, not to mention Alexei being LESS than enthusiastic about a Western bride means that the duke of Brunswick might walk back from the idea. He's ambitious enough he might not, but if Carl looks like a better vehicle to drive said ambition, then he'll switch horses midstream
 
Civil war breaks out and Charles XII rides home a few years earlier and takes command of the Swedish army.
 
My mistake.



Because Alexei is essentially an uknown quantity. Ludwig Rudolf/Anton Ulrich wed Charlotte to Alexei because Pyotr was winning. With Pyotr dead and Alexei's opinion on the war being decidedly less grandiose, not to mention Alexei being LESS than enthusiastic about a Western bride means that the duke of Brunswick might walk back from the idea. He's ambitious enough he might not, but if Carl looks like a better vehicle to drive said ambition, then he'll switch horses midstream

Actually, discussion of the match started in 1707, I have no idea where did you get information on Alexei's absence of enthusiasm and the argument regarding "less grandiose war" is absolutely unconvincing: to start with, Peter's "grandiose view", when it became clear in 1715, made pretty much everybody unhappy, then in 1711 "a better vehicle" is still sitting in Benderi without any clear way out and with his Baltic provinces lost to Russia. Then, of course, why would the Duke of Brunswick be looking for a loser with the greater plans rather for a winner with a much greater territory?
 
Actually, discussion of the match started in 1707, I have no idea where did you get information on Alexei's absence of enthusiasm and the argument regarding "less grandiose war" is absolutely unconvincing: to start with, Peter's "grandiose view", when it became clear in 1715, made pretty much everybody unhappy, then in 1711 "a better vehicle" is still sitting in Benderi without any clear way out and with his Baltic provinces lost to Russia. Then, of course, why would the Duke of Brunswick be looking for a loser with the greater plans rather for a winner with a much greater territory?
A common (pro-Petrine) historiography view was that he hated the arranged marriage. However, there are numerous problems with this:
- Marriage of his great-grandfather to Eudoxia Streshneva is the nearest match in Romanov line that can be assuredly called a love match (OK, Alexis I and Natalia Naryshkina may ALSO count; but this had its own problems);
- Being in-law to HRE comes with much greater perks than being tied into domestic clan struggle - and Alexei was anything but stupid, it appears;

However, there is one (1) clause that can ruin the match - while Peter agreed on marriage without conversion, it's unlikely that Alexei would keep this lack of demand - he was at least a bit more pious than his dad.
 
Actually, discussion of the match started in 1707, I have no idea where did you get information on Alexei's absence of enthusiasm and the argument regarding "less grandiose war" is absolutely unconvincing: to start with, Peter's "grandiose view", when it became clear in 1715, made pretty much everybody unhappy, then in 1711 "a better vehicle" is still sitting in Benderi without any clear way out and with his Baltic provinces lost to Russia. Then, of course, why would the Duke of Brunswick be looking for a loser with the greater plans rather for a winner with a much greater territory?

Besides, Karl XII actively rejected the notion of marriage before he had brought the war to a successful conclusion. And then he intended to marry for love - which might prove problematic considering what was probably a very low libido compared to contemporary monarchs.

The only way I see Karl XII accepting a betrothal during the war is if it brings a significant advantage in the war to Sweden (bringing in a major power on his side), which is not happening.

Side note, a victorious Karl XII might even forego marriage and adopt his nephew Karl Fredrik Duke of Holstein-Gottorp to raise as his hier (which would cause... interesting side effects in the long run if he still marries Anna Petrovna).
 
Sweden had raised a new army after Poltava, which won the battle of Helsingborg in February 1710. OTL this army was shipped to Germany to protect Sweden's German provinces against Hannover-Lubeck, Denmark and Brandenburg-Prussia, won at Gadebusch 1712 but was encirkled and forced to surrender at Tönning 1713.

If Peter dies, Karl XII might take it as a sign of divine providence and return to Sweden to take this army to Ingria to finally defeat Russia instead of as OTL stay in the Ottoman Empire and try to provoke the OTL battle of Prut.

He did not stay with the Ottomans just because he wanted to provoke Peter to start a war with them foreseeing that it would end with Peter's defeat at Pruth (no offense but he was not a visionary or strategic genius of a needed caliber). He stayed by a very simple reason: he could not leave because he had to travel through the territories of his direct (Poland) and indirect (HRE) enemies. So timing of his return was dictated by the end of the War of the Spanish Succession and not by his visions. :winkytongue:

How would Alexei and the military establishment handle a renewed Swedish invasion (even if just in Ingria) or the OTL Prut situation? The Swedes alleged that Peter bribed the Ottoman leadership to allow him to escape being surrounded OTL.

Charles did try that in OTL. But before invading Russia he needed to secure the base in Pomerania which was under attack by the Prussian, Danish, Russian coalition. There is no objective reason to think that he would go to Ingria instead of trying to relieve Stralsund which was, IIRC, his 1st military action upon the return. It also was a spectacular failure demonstrating that even his famous tactics was not working anymore. So his grand schema of a two-pronged advance on Russia (Swedes from Pomerania and Ottomans, whom he forgot to ask, from the South) failed on the Swedish end leaving him without a base from which he wanted to launch his attack.

Now, for the Ottoman's end of Charls' grand schema. With Alexei taking throne in 1710 Pruth campaign most probably is not going to happen (it was one of the typical Peter's adventures: going somewhere based upon inadequate knowledge and expecting an easy success) and the Ottomans remain neutral. There is very little for them to gain in Russia because even concessions by the Peace of Constantinople (1700) had been minimal. OTOH, there were scores to settle with Venice and Hapsburgs.

As for the Russian military establishment, after Poltava the "Swedish legend" was gone (and so did most of the best-trained Swedish troops) and it became reasonably clear how to deal with Charles' tactics. Probably it is safe to say that Peter's absence would be even somewhat beneficial: Russian military establishment already produced a number of the experienced generals, the troops had been adequately trained and an absence of the wild adventures like unprovoked war against the Ottomans or meddling into Mecklenburg's affairs would be beneficial.
 
I think Alexei would have to relax his grip on his nobles a bit considering his fathers despotism is what led to him gaining supporters otl, and he was avowedly Pacific compared to his father, so even though he’d continue the GNW, I think he’d be looking to extricate himself from it without looking like he’s just given up everything his father obtained- perhaps he could convince Charles to allow the territorial losses in return for an uncontested sphere of influence in the plc, or he spins it as a victory if he returns some of the Swedish Baltic in return for uncontested influence in the plc himself, with perhaps annexation of sparsely populated and rebellious but strategically important polish Ukraine.

Sorry, you are talking about Charles XII which means that no peace is possible until Sweden regains all territories lost. Charles simply would not have it. Not sure who is spinning what in your schema related to the PLC but the Baltic provinces just swore loyalty to Russia and Alexei can't give them away. August II is back on the PLC throne so there is no need to negotiate with Sweden "sphere of influence" there. "Polish Ukraine" was strategically important only in one context: war against the Ottomans. If Alexei is not planning it, then it is "Więcej smród niż zysk" (more stench than gain) ;)

He would likely break off his engagement and marry a Russian girl,

As I understand, the main source of this idea is some old TL rather than real facts.


Moreover, considering the strength of the autocrat in relation to his subjects I can see him actually outlawing German and french use in court, and perhaps banning as many western elements at court as he could- while there are no conservative Boyars crawling out of the woodwork, to curry favour with the tsar I think it’s plausible that boyars feign traditionalism.

Sight. I wonder why people keep repeating these things without bothering to learn relevant history. To start with, neither German nor French had been widely used at Peter's court. Peter was talking and writing in a wild mixture of the Russian, Dutch, German and perhaps English as well. French as a society language belongs to the end of the XVIII and German never was a court language even if he was routinely used by the Russian Germans. Alexei, unlike his father (who was not good even in literary Russian) was well versed in both German and French, had German tutors and traveled abroad so there is absolutely no reason to assume that he would return the old costumes or whatever you think amounts to the old habits (not that Peter was trying to eliminate all of them). As for the "western elements at court", he may cancel so-called "assemblies" (which died out after Peter's death, anyway) with their enforced drinking.

I’m pretty sure the navies funding would be pretty inconsequential and after the gnw is concluded, the army too is likely to see massive funding cuts to save money.

Guess what? Both things happened in OTL during the reign of Anne: it was impossible to maintain a military budget amounting to 90% of state income.

I also potentially see a return of a Russian patriarchy rather than synod considering how important his mothers orthodox religion was to Alexei.

In case you missed it, his father also was an Orthodox and there is no reason to assume that Eudoxia was extremely religious woman: she was forced into a nunnery and, until "Alexei's affair", lived there relatively free and even had a lover (whom Peter ordered to impale).
 
The only religion related problem may be re. conversion of Alexei's intended bride (if the young Tsar's advisors go for this demand - though I think that say Dolgorukovs would see the political reality of this marriage).

A Synod (or a selection of pet patriatrch) is a necessary thing given the attempts of the Tsars to force religious reforms since late 1670ies at the very least. If there is a chance to FINALLY force through some stuff like breaking Siberian metropolitan diocese in two for better management of eastern ass end of Empire...

French as a society language belongs to the end of the XVIII
More likely to Elisabeth's reign - she was better literate in French than in Russian, due to adventurous plan by her ADHD-suffering father to marry her to French court, so she was a Francophile supreme regarding language and fashion. But that's offtopic.
 
The only religion related problem may be re. conversion of Alexei's intended bride (if the young Tsar's advisors go for this demand - though I think that say Dolgorukovs would see the political reality of this marriage).

A Synod (or a selection of pet patriatrch) is a necessary thing given the attempts of the Tsars to force religious reforms since late 1670ies at the very least. If there is a chance to FINALLY force through some stuff like breaking Siberian metropolitan diocese in two for better management of eastern ass end of Empire...


More likely to Elisabeth's reign - she was better literate in French than in Russian, due to adventurous plan by her ADHD-suffering father to marry her to French court, so she was a Francophile supreme regarding language and fashion. But that's offtopic.

In OTL Charlotte was allowed to keep her faith and because marriage arrangements were approved by Peter, this would stay as a part of his legacy.

Synod was created only in 1721 but I think that by 1710 the Orthodox Church was already under complete control of a ruler.

Yes, probably French made first serious inroads during the time of Elizabeth but I don’t think that it already became the 1st language of communication.
 
Synod was created only in 1721 but I think that by 1710 the Orthodox Church was already under complete control of a ruler.
Yavorski placeholder just gets elected Patriarch formally, best case for institution.

P.S. Edited. Prokopovich is not even known at court by 1710, it's Yavorski who was appointed placeholder.
 
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Yavorski placeholder just gets elected Patriarch formally, best case for institution.

P.S. Edited. Prokopovich is not even known at court by 1710, it's Yavorski who was appointed placeholder.

Any of them would do whatever is required so the difference is not critical.
 
Actually, discussion of the match started in 1707, I have no idea where did you get information on Alexei's absence of enthusiasm and the argument regarding "less grandiose war" is absolutely unconvincing: to start with, Peter's "grandiose view", when it became clear in 1715, made pretty much everybody unhappy, then in 1711 "a better vehicle" is still sitting in Benderi without any clear way out and with his Baltic provinces lost to Russia. Then, of course, why would the Duke of Brunswick be looking for a loser with the greater plans rather for a winner with a much greater territory?

As @Valena pointed out, the book (can't remember the name or author) I read probably suffered from a pro-Petrine bias, and needed to show Alexei/Eudoxia Lophukina is conservative/reactionary etc. My apologies
 
Sweden was not at war with Austria or the Holy Roman Empire and Karl XII and the remnants of his army could get the Emperor's permission to travel through in 1714-15 and could probably get the same in 1711-12.
 
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