Alright, this is going a little obscure on y'all.
IOTL Peter Blaikie almost ran for the leadership of Canada's Progressive Conservative Party in 1976 and 1983, pulling out just before it actually started. He was from Quebec, bilingual, right-wing (in the present day he thinks austerity works, for example), but IOTL he lost the seat he contested in both 1979 and 1980.
So. Let's say he wins the seat, both elections, and thus in 1983 he stays in the running. This kneecaps Michael Wilson in Ontario (the other right-wing economist candidate, who got Blaikie's supporters IOTL) and also weakens Mulroney.
Another point. Blaikie's supporters are almost certainly ex-Claude Wagner supporters. Claude Wagner hated Joe Clark, and his supporters hated Mulroney (and vice-versa). So we can have tons of fun with that as needed.
I see two plausible outcomes:
Joe Clark hangs on. He loses a third of Quebec to Blaikie, some Western/rural voters, but remember Mulroney/Blaikie supporters almost certainly hate each other more than Mulroney supporters hate Clark. So, much as in 1976, Clark comes through the middle once more defeating Blaikie on the last ballot because Mulroney Quebec supporters go with Clark.
Or Blaikie takes it, defeating Mulroney on the final ballot simply because Clark supporters will absolutely not support Mulroney. Being bilingual and from Quebec and right-wing murders Mulroney's base, plus he gets the Michael Wilson (and probably Crosbie) base that went to Mulroney IOTL.
So, depending on what you feel like, PM Joe Clark or PM Peter Blaikie in 1984 (Turner is an idiot, so I figure he'll still lose).
IOTL Peter Blaikie almost ran for the leadership of Canada's Progressive Conservative Party in 1976 and 1983, pulling out just before it actually started. He was from Quebec, bilingual, right-wing (in the present day he thinks austerity works, for example), but IOTL he lost the seat he contested in both 1979 and 1980.
So. Let's say he wins the seat, both elections, and thus in 1983 he stays in the running. This kneecaps Michael Wilson in Ontario (the other right-wing economist candidate, who got Blaikie's supporters IOTL) and also weakens Mulroney.
Another point. Blaikie's supporters are almost certainly ex-Claude Wagner supporters. Claude Wagner hated Joe Clark, and his supporters hated Mulroney (and vice-versa). So we can have tons of fun with that as needed.
I see two plausible outcomes:
Joe Clark hangs on. He loses a third of Quebec to Blaikie, some Western/rural voters, but remember Mulroney/Blaikie supporters almost certainly hate each other more than Mulroney supporters hate Clark. So, much as in 1976, Clark comes through the middle once more defeating Blaikie on the last ballot because Mulroney Quebec supporters go with Clark.
Or Blaikie takes it, defeating Mulroney on the final ballot simply because Clark supporters will absolutely not support Mulroney. Being bilingual and from Quebec and right-wing murders Mulroney's base, plus he gets the Michael Wilson (and probably Crosbie) base that went to Mulroney IOTL.
So, depending on what you feel like, PM Joe Clark or PM Peter Blaikie in 1984 (Turner is an idiot, so I figure he'll still lose).