Peter Blaikie Scrambles Canadian PC Leadership Race, 1983

Alright, this is going a little obscure on y'all.

IOTL Peter Blaikie almost ran for the leadership of Canada's Progressive Conservative Party in 1976 and 1983, pulling out just before it actually started. He was from Quebec, bilingual, right-wing (in the present day he thinks austerity works, for example), but IOTL he lost the seat he contested in both 1979 and 1980.

So. Let's say he wins the seat, both elections, and thus in 1983 he stays in the running. This kneecaps Michael Wilson in Ontario (the other right-wing economist candidate, who got Blaikie's supporters IOTL) and also weakens Mulroney.

Another point. Blaikie's supporters are almost certainly ex-Claude Wagner supporters. Claude Wagner hated Joe Clark, and his supporters hated Mulroney (and vice-versa). So we can have tons of fun with that as needed.

I see two plausible outcomes:
Joe Clark hangs on. He loses a third of Quebec to Blaikie, some Western/rural voters, but remember Mulroney/Blaikie supporters almost certainly hate each other more than Mulroney supporters hate Clark. So, much as in 1976, Clark comes through the middle once more defeating Blaikie on the last ballot because Mulroney Quebec supporters go with Clark.

Or Blaikie takes it, defeating Mulroney on the final ballot simply because Clark supporters will absolutely not support Mulroney. Being bilingual and from Quebec and right-wing murders Mulroney's base, plus he gets the Michael Wilson (and probably Crosbie) base that went to Mulroney IOTL.

So, depending on what you feel like, PM Joe Clark or PM Peter Blaikie in 1984 (Turner is an idiot, so I figure he'll still lose).
 
So. Let's say he wins the seat, both elections, and thus in 1983 he stays in the running.
I hate to pour cold water on this WI, but how does he win the seat ITTL? He lost it big in both elections: by over 16,000 votes in 1979, and nearly 13,000 in 1980.
 
I hate to pour cold water on this WI, but how does he win the seat ITTL? He lost it big in both elections: by over 16,000 votes in 1979, and nearly 13,000 in 1980.

Ah, quite, lol. Smart enough to pick a different seat?

EDIT:

Not there are many possibilites. Looks like Heward Grafftey in Brome—Missisquoi is our best bet. Let's say he loses in 1979--which would become the POD--and doesn't want to run again in 1980, but it is still a very close Liberal-PC riding so Blaikie parachutes in. (It is even fitting, since Grafftey tried for the leadership of the party IOTL, ITTL his successor will.)
 
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Why not have him run in Claude Wagner's old riding, Saint-Hyacinthe, in the 1978 by-election? The Tories kept it surprisingly close (only to lose big to the by-elected Liberal incumbent in 1979).
 
Uhh... Blaikie said in 1990 he would rather live in an independent Quebec than a post-Meech Canada. Not exactly conducive to winning here. If Clark survives as leader then he gets a smaller majority in 1984, I don't see my province voting en masse for Clark. I certainly don't see Blaikie winning the leadership.
 
Uhh... Blaikie said in 1990 he would rather live in an independent Quebec than a post-Meech Canada. Not exactly conducive to winning here. If Clark survives as leader then he gets a smaller majority in 1984, I don't see my province voting en masse for Clark. I certainly don't see Blaikie winning the leadership.

Tis good to argue with you again :)

I never said he'd a good PM :D, in fact I imagine he'd be pretty bad but not understanding math has never hampered a Prime Minister of Canada (nor the UK, for that matter). Also we can't project 1990 Blaikie back, the events he's referring to simply haven't happened yet in 1983 when he did consider running IOTL. ITTL he has a seat since 1978, and has had time to build a base (perhaps Wagner as he moves to the Senate encourages Blaikie?).

However remember that IOTL there are plausible scenarios for Crosbie and that ITTL Blaikie is basically that right-wing candidate except he speaks French, and has Quebec support. So if Mulroney/Clark tear each other apart, Blaikie is the alternative: right-winger from Quebec. Makes everybody but Red Tories happy, essentially.
 
Sure, but I doubt his underlying constitutional view would be different. Mulroney would try and expose that, tying Blaikie to PET. TTL's leadership election is a total CF.
 
Sure, but I doubt his underlying constitutional view would be different. Mulroney would try and expose that, tying Blaikie to PET. TTL's leadership election is a total CF.

No disagreements on that one, be a hell of a convention to attend in an alternate reality :). But yeah, Joe Clark surviving as leader looks like the most plausible outcome.
 
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