Petain’s Panic, or, How the Germans Might Have Won the Great War by Default

All very unlikely.

Petain would just have been sacked, or else had Foch or someone put over him as OTL.

It becomes possible if Paris actually falls, but that's another matter. Most of France's munitions plants are in and around the capital, so if Paris falls, France falls. But as long as they hold onto it they can continue the war. And, of course, if Paris does fall, the German peace terms are hardly likely to be as moderate as here portrayed.
 
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