Peshawar Lancers Redux: Latin America, Caribbean

[Strategos' Risk]

Just some thoughts on the Caribbean on me for potential countries. Please take these with a grain of salt-

Spanish holdings: Could the survivors of the Spanish monarchy flee there? I've heard somewhere that Havana was one of the largest cities in the region at the time.

Black enclave: Perhaps the new African-American freemen flee the mainland from the chaos that results from the Fall? I'm thinking perhaps they might end up settling in Haiti and the Dominican Republic a lot. If the fascist U.S. discussed about in the other thread comes to pass, they might be forcibly resettled there to reduce racial tensions with the redeemer Southern whites.

Scandinavians: People mentioned in the main thread that some of the nations in Northern Europe had very capable navies at the time, and so should deserve to have survived as the Brits, French, the Russians, and the Dutch (Batavians) did in the book. Then people mentioned that, depending on how bad the Fall was, much of Northern Europe may have simply been washed away, or at least the impressive navies aforementioned. I dunno what would happen, but perhaps settling in the Caribbean would be easier than going all of the way to South America?

 

[vultan]

I dunno, I kind of thought that America's new Manifest Destiny would be directed toward the South instead of West, and that, remember, there probably wasn't a whole lot of space in the South for Northern refugees, so maybe displaced Americans might spill over into Cuba and northern Mexico, and African-Americans would probably go to Haiti and Domincan Republic. Just a thought.

 

[RCAF Brat]

Let's just say that Cuba (North-East mostly), Hispaniola (North), The Antilles, The Virgin Islands and the Northern Coast of South America from roughly east of Venezuela are fucked. They all get hit by the tsunami unleashed by the impact off of Virginia. And that one is a monster of at least 100m...

Jamaica and the other (surviving) British possessions have to go it alone for decades until the Raj starts moving in. The return of colonial authorities may not be welcomed with open arms.

With most US commercial shipping gone, at least it will be decades before they really have to start worrying about the Americans again.

Central and South America should do about as good as one can expect under the circumstances.

The Central American states don't have to worry much about Uncle Sam any more. But Brazil and Colombia will be looking for little puppets of their own...

Peru, Bolivia, Colombia and Venezuela should not see much of an influx from either Europe or North America. Brazil, well, they are the big dog now. They may or may not see an influx of refugees from Europe, though with Portugal fucked over by a direct hit from the tsunami, they might not see very many at all. Chile may get a chance to expand east, over the Andes, but there are nations there which may beat them (to the punch?) and expand west instead.

 

[OneUp]

While a lot of the population is diminished in the Caribbean, depending on political circumstances they can make for a substantial comeback and successfully diplomatically play off their larger neighbors right?

 

[chris N]

Brazil could have survived the fall. It was at one point the home of the Portuguese Monarchy and perhaps might have laid claim to Portugal.

Chile would probably be the great power in South America. It might very well have swallowed up a lot more territory as result of the fall and the lack of intervention by outside powers.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I kinda wanna go with keeping it mostly like how the book has it- South America is dominated by Brazil. However, there is indeed a Hispanophone discontent brewing in the former areas of Argentina/Chile, that may or may not successfully revolt and create a new republic.

 

[King Gorilla]

While a lot of the population is diminished in the Caribbean, depending on political circumstances they can make for a substantial comeback and successfully diplomatically play off their larger neighbors right?

The Caribbean is screwed. It doesn't only have to contend with the Virginia impact, there was a smaller still sizable impact in the Gulf of Mexico. Few Caribbean states were self sufficient in food production, and what crops that they had were going to be destroyed by the tidal waves, along with most of the infrastructure and the entirety of their fishing fleets. To top it off, much of their land will be salinated, from being completely deluged by salt water.

As for Latin America I can see Brazil, Argentina, and Chile initially prospering greatly. Their ports were sheltered from the tidal waves. They exist in temperate climates, and produce large surpluses of food. For the first few years after the impact, I imagine that they will acquire the gold reserves of Europe and America, selling grain and salt meat at inflated prices. These nations might see immigration, pre-die off, as all of them wanted to continue "whitening" their population. Given the circumstances of the time though, I'd imagine that immigration would entail lengthy periods of indentured servitude, as the be agricultural produces exploit the new comers as cheap and expendable labor.

When things die down, pardon the pun, it will begin to get interesting. Brazil is likely to throw its weight around and seek out to acquire territory off of its smaller neighbors. I imagine that this would lead to another war against Argentina. Chile will likely war with Peru and Bolivia, the Guano war hasn't occurred yet, and the results might be very different. Columbia, would be well positioned to dominated South America's north. It is well sheltered from the waves, although Cartagena will likely be destroyed. It has vast quantities of fertile volcanic soil and large stockpiles of minerals including coal. This puts it in a very good position to take on its traditional rival of Venezuela, which would have lost most of its population thanks to the Tsunami. Should Columbia, conquer most Venezuela...well its the only South America state with both coal and iron.

 

[chris N]

Actually at this point in time Chile had the most powerful Navy in South America. Its ships were more powerful than the US Navy in OTL for this period. It was definitely stronger than any other Latin American Navy on the Pacific Coast.

 

[Shadow Knight]

The Caribbean is screwed. It doesn't only have to contend with the Virginia impact, there was a smaller still sizable impact in the Gulf of Mexico. Few Caribbean states were self sufficient in food production, and what crops that they had were going to be destroyed by the tidal waves, along with most of the infrastructure and the entirety of their fishing fleets. To top it off, much of their land will be salinated, from being completely deluged by salt water.

Huh? What Virginia impact? What impact in the Gulf?

In the TTL we've constructed so far there was four impacts of good size. One in Russia (the largest to impact on land), one in France (the smallest to hit on land), one in the Atlantic (the largest piece of them all), and one in North America near the US/Canada border in Montana.

The rest should hold true though as that massive tidal wave is going to deluge most of the rest of the Caribbean. Some areas on the southern parts of the island might survive due to being sheltered by mountains.

As for Latin America I can see Brazil, Argentina, and Chile initially prospering greatly. Their ports were sheltered from the tidal waves. They exist in temperate climates, and produce large surpluses of food. For the first few years after the impact, I imagine that they will acquire the gold reserves of Europe and America, selling grain and salt meat at inflated prices. These nations might see immigration, pre-die off, as all of them wanted to continue "whitening" their population. Given the circumstances of the time though, I'd imagine that immigration would entail lengthy periods of indentured servitude, as the be agricultural produces exploit the new comers as cheap and expendable labor.

I agree those nations and the others of SA will come off quite a bit better. But they better be careful not to charge to much as they might find the rest of the world's navies shelling their harbors in retaliation.

When things die down, pardon the pun, it will begin to get interesting. Brazil is likely to throw its weight around and seek out to acquire territory off of its smaller neighbors. I imagine that this would lead to another war against Argentina. Chile will likely war with Peru and Bolivia, the Guano war hasn't occurred yet, and the results might be very different. Columbia, would be well positioned to dominated South America's north. It is well sheltered from the waves, although Cartagena will likely be destroyed. It has vast quantities of fertile volcanic soil and large stockpiles of minerals including coal. This puts it in a very good position to take on its traditional rival of Venezuela, which would have lost most of its population thanks to the Tsunami. Should Columbia, conquer most Venezuela...well its the only South America state with both coal and iron.

Yes plenty of conflict and expansion in SA.

 

[King Gorilla]

Huh? What Virginia impact? What impact in the Gulf?

In the TTL we've constructed so far there was four impacts of good size. One in Russia (the largest to impact on land), one in France (the smallest to hit on land), one in the Atlantic (the largest piece of them all), and one in North America near the US/Canada border in Montana.

The Virginia, impact was the Atlantic one whose civilization destroying powers were located closer to the American side of the Atlantic.

I could have sworn that a smaller impact was mentioned in the gulf of Mexico, which served to flood New Orleans, coastal Texas, and much of the gulf coast.

Anyway South America will have some interesting times ahead of it

 

[Shadow Knight]

The Virginia, impact was the Atlantic one whose civilization destroying powers were located closer to the American side of the Atlantic.

I could have sworn that a smaller impact was mentioned in the gulf of Mexico, which served to flood New Orleans, coastal Texas, and much of the gulf coast.

Anyway South America will have some interesting times ahead of it

Ah okay wasn't quite sure, but Virginia impact it is...even though it was much further out to sea (about 1/3 of the way to Europe).

Nope just those four. While there was definitely flooding and damage in the Gulf it wasn't as bad as it could have been.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I kinda wanna go with keeping it mostly like how the book has it- South America is dominated by Brazil. However, there is indeed a Hispanophone discontent brewing in the former areas of Argentina/Chile, that may or may not successfully revolt and create a new republic.

Anyways yeah I'm just going to arbitrarily agree on the book on this point until someone responds to it. Viva the House of Braganza.

 

[Shadow Knight]

Anyways yeah I'm just going to arbitrarily agree on the book on this point until someone responds to it. Viva the House of Braganza.

Brazil will definitely be the powerhouse, but remember their northern coast is just as bad off as other places. There are some stumbling blocks to Brazil just rampaging around S. America.

For starters Argentinian grain and beef is going to be critical to a starving Europe and battered US. Any interference will likely bring down what remains of those nations navies to prevent that from happening. Also Chile is a long way and across a lot of difficult terrain for Brazil to manage.

So the way I see it is thus:

Brazil the number one power that is able to expand where it can.

Argentina grows from immigration and the wealth of agricultural trade, but successfully fends off Brazilian domination only with outside help.

Chile and Peru/Bolivia are at war at some point in the very near future.

Columbia moves into the devastated Venezuela.

Just my quick thoughts on the matter.

 

[Jord839]

Brazil will definitely be the powerhouse, but remember their northern coast is just as bad off as other places. There are some stumbling blocks to Brazil just rampaging around S. America.

For starters Argentinian grain and beef is going to be critical to a starving Europe and battered US. Any interference will likely bring down what remains of those nations navies to prevent that from happening. Also Chile is a long way and across a lot of difficult terrain for Brazil to manage.

So the way I see it is thus:

Brazil the number one power that is able to expand where it can.

Argentina grows from immigration and the wealth of agricultural trade, but successfully fends off Brazilian domination only with outside help.

Chile and Peru/Bolivia are at war at some point in the very near future.

Columbia moves into the devastated Venezuela.

Just my quick thoughts on the matter.

Perhaps we can work the Argentina thing in with our "Scandanavian exodus" idea? The Scandanavians end up fighting the Brazilians at sea in order to get much needed supplies and in exchange the Argentine government offers them land in Patagonia? Where they become massive parts of the Argentine Navy and start to develop a Neo-Viking mystique?

 

[Shadow Knight]

Perhaps we can work the Argentina thing in with our "Scandanavian exodus" idea? The Scandanavians end up fighting the Brazilians at sea in order to get much needed supplies and in exchange the Argentine government offers them land in Patagonia? Where they become massive parts of the Argentine Navy and start to develop a Neo-Viking mystique?

It could work...I was personally hoping that they'd move into Angola.

 

[Jord839]

It could work...I was personally hoping that they'd move into Angola.

Either way. I just want to see me some neo-vikings.

 

[King Gorilla]

Either way. I just want to see me some neo-vikings.

Oh the Swedo-Norwegian merchant marine, transporting salt beef and grain in exchange for settlement rights since 1878...

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Neo-vikings are cool but it kinda seems that if they go all over the world it just seems far-fetched and smacks of both Dies the Fire-styled medieval revivalim or the classical-focused nature of the 19th century Draka. A bit counter-realistic. Of course, of all the people on this project I'm a bit of a purist (hence my desire to have Latin America dominated by Brazil as per the novel) so you have to take that bias into account.

Well, maybe I can see a large merchant marine-derived band of survivors who end up playing pirate and staying at the haven of a foreign patron, but Patagonia is a long way from home.

 

[Shadow Knight]

Neo-vikings are cool but it kinda seems that if they go all over the world it just seems far-fetched and smacks of both Dies the Fire-styled medieval revivalim or the classical-focused nature of the 19th century Draka. A bit counter-realistic. Of course, of all the people on this project I'm a bit of a purist (hence my desire to have Latin America dominated by Brazil as per the novel) so you have to take that bias into account.

I'd be okay with a SA dominated by Brazil if it made sense which it doesn't (IMO of course).

Hmm...I can see what you mean about it being a bit too far, but then again so is Batavia for the Dutch.

Well, maybe I can see a large merchant marine-derived band of survivors who end up playing pirate and staying at the haven of a foreign patron, but Patagonia is a long way from home.

Maybe they just keep migrating further south over time as their welcome is played out. And the end up in X (Patagonia, Angola, etc.).

 

[chris N]

It is Possible that that Brazil might be the country that Portugal's colonies turn to. In fact Brazil might seek to dominate these colonies, at least the ones in Africa.