Peru–Bolivian Confederation stay together

It depends on how they stay together; winning the War of Confederation is unlikely, but preventing it from happening is not impossible.

The best bet is to make sure the Confederation has more powerful Peruvians, or at least keep Peru from feeling isolated.

The best way to do this IMO is to prevent a serious war between Peru and Gran Colombia, but rather to just have a war-scare or a series of small skirmishes.

This keeps Peru more intact and better off, and gives it impetus to unite with Bolivia.


If Peru and Bolivia stay united, this greatly throws off the balance of power in South America, especially if Gran-Colombia still breaks up.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Simple enough: have a TL where they win the War of the Confederation- perhaps one where the PBC don't have to fight a simultaneous war against the Argentians, allowing them to bring all of their forces to bear against the Chileans? Or if you want a more subtle solution, one where national boundaries remain largely unchanged, you could have a TL where the Chilean Congress adopts a more lenient stance in their initial negotiations, and Santa Cruz's agreement to all of the terms in the Chilean treaty other than the dissolution of the Peru-Bolivian Confederation is accepted as an acceptable resolution, with Chile never declaring war against the Confederation ITTL.

Alternatively, if you want to give it a bit of a wank, you could try strengthening it with an earlier POD- if the dissolution of Gran Columbia had taken place a couple of years earlier, prior to their war with Peru, might you have seen the inclusion of some of its successor states into the Confederacy? Ecuador seems realistic, if they gain the proportionate representation they never got in Gran Columbia; and Venezuela always supported a federalist arrangement in Gran Columbia, so entry into the Confederacy should have some appeal. Even the integration of New Granada shouldn't be impossible- with Bolivar having already been removed from power, his supporters won't be around to veto the federalist constitution and place him upon his dictatorial throne, as they did IOTL.

Bring them all together along with the New Grenadian Panama Territories, and the vastly expanded Confederacy (which obviously wouldn't be known as the Peru-Bolivian Confederacy any more- perhaps the 'Confederacy of Columbia' might be a more fitting name) could have the potential to become immensely powerful. Essentially, Latin America's own counterpart to the United States of America, with control over a larger population, a larger economy and a larger area than the fledgling USA did at this stage. ITTL, 'WI' could be whatever you want it to be- perhaps even usurping the USA's place IOTL as the world's sole superpower...
 
Best way for the Confederation to last, is to have Peru form it as opposed to Bolivia. Santa took advantage of Peru's weakness to form the confederation with Bolivia. Bolivia at any other time was the weaker of the two.

If Peru becomes the centre of the Confederation instead, then the Confederation won't have to fight a two front war against Peru and Chile. As far as Argentina is concerned, they can't fight them. They simply aren't strong enough to take both Chile and Argentina. Try to separate them and you can keep the Confederation. It had a lot of support from it's population, just not a lot of international support.
 

SunDeep

Banned
Best way for the Confederation to last, is to have Peru form it as opposed to Bolivia. Santa took advantage of Peru's weakness to form the confederation with Bolivia. Bolivia at any other time was the weaker of the two.

If Peru becomes the centre of the Confederation instead, then the Confederation won't have to fight a two front war against Peru and Chile. As far as Argentina is concerned, they can't fight them. They simply aren't strong enough to take both Chile and Argentina. Try to separate them and you can keep the Confederation. It had a lot of support from it's population, just not a lot of international support.

Well, it did have official support from the British, French and US of Americans- the French even did them a favor and blockaded Buenos Aires for them during the War of the Confederacy. If any of these major powers had more incentive to intervene to a greater degree, then they would have.
 
Simple enough: have a TL where they win the War of the Confederation- perhaps one where the PBC don't have to fight a simultaneous war against the Argentians, allowing them to bring all of their forces to bear against the Chileans? Or if you want a more subtle solution, one where national boundaries remain largely unchanged, you could have a TL where the Chilean Congress adopts a more lenient stance in their initial negotiations, and Santa Cruz's agreement to all of the terms in the Chilean treaty other than the dissolution of the Peru-Bolivian Confederation is accepted as an acceptable resolution, with Chile never declaring war against the Confederation ITTL.

Alternatively, if you want to give it a bit of a wank, you could try strengthening it with an earlier POD- if the dissolution of Gran Columbia had taken place a couple of years earlier, prior to their war with Peru, might you have seen the inclusion of some of its successor states into the Confederacy? Ecuador seems realistic, if they gain the proportionate representation they never got in Gran Columbia; and Venezuela always supported a federalist arrangement in Gran Columbia, so entry into the Confederacy should have some appeal. Even the integration of New Granada shouldn't be impossible- with Bolivar having already been removed from power, his supporters won't be around to veto the federalist constitution and place him upon his dictatorial throne, as they did IOTL.

Bring them all together along with the New Grenadian Panama Territories, and the vastly expanded Confederacy (which obviously wouldn't be known as the Peru-Bolivian Confederacy any more- perhaps the 'Confederacy of Columbia' might be a more fitting name) could have the potential to become immensely powerful. Essentially, Latin America's own counterpart to the United States of America, with control over a larger population, a larger economy and a larger area than the fledgling USA did at this stage. ITTL, 'WI' could be whatever you want it to be- perhaps even usurping the USA's place IOTL as the world's sole superpower...

It wouldn`t be better the southAmerican Confederation or the Andean Confederation; however there will be some problem still, just which is going to be the capital? Lima, Bogota, Cuzco? and also, even with the greta amount of resources, people and land; there was always a problem in my dear SouthAmerica: the presidents; so, in this case, an appropiated leader should be elected to lead this powerful country.

Best way for the Confederation to last, is to have Peru form it as opposed to Bolivia. Santa took advantage of Peru's weakness to form the confederation with Bolivia. Bolivia at any other time was the weaker of the two.

If Peru becomes the centre of the Confederation instead, then the Confederation won't have to fight a two front war against Peru and Chile. As far as Argentina is concerned, they can't fight them. They simply aren't strong enough to take both Chile and Argentina. Try to separate them and you can keep the Confederation. It had a lot of support from it's population, just not a lot of international support.
Yeah, i guess was the problem, beacuse many peruvian militars (including Castilla) fled to Chile and then return to battle the Confederation; if as you say, the Peruvian position was stronger, then it could have worked; however there was still the problem of the oligarquy., how to deal with them?
 
As far as Argentina is concerned, they can't fight them. They simply aren't strong enough to take both Chile and Argentina.

Except that Argentina was beaten. After a last embarrassing defeat, the forces from Tucumán were forced into an uneasy stalemate with Argentine territory under enemy occupation.

In any case, the Confederation can survive in its OTL incarnation, there’s no need for a Peruvian centered effort (hell it probably wasn’t even the most desirable option given the state of Peruvian finances, while Santa Cruz had worked marvels in Bolivia); Agustin Gamarra is single handedly to blame for its collapse. Have him done away with and the odds of its survival go up 200%, all the other opposition notwithstanding.
 

SunDeep

Banned
It wouldn`t be better the southAmerican Confederation or the Andean Confederation; however there will be some problem still, just which is going to be the capital? Lima, Bogota, Cuzco? and also, even with the greta amount of resources, people and land; there was always a problem in my dear SouthAmerica: the presidents; so, in this case, an appropiated leader should be elected to lead this powerful country.

The things is, in all of these nations at the time, their working name for the continent of South America was Columbia- the nation we now know as Columbia was still New Granada at the time. South American Confederacy, Columbian Confederacy- it'd just be the same thing to them. If it did extend to Venezuela and Panama, it wouldn't be Andean. As for the potentially divisive issue of which city should serve as its capital- couldn't they just follow the example of the USA, founding a new city to serve as the expanded Confederacy's new capital? The Confederacy of Columbia's own District of Columbia?
 
The things is, in all of these nations at the time, their working name for the continent of South America was Columbia- the nation we now know as Columbia was still New Granada at the time. South American Confederacy, Columbian Confederacy- it'd just be the same thing to them. If it did extend to Venezuela and Panama, it wouldn't be Andean. As for the potentially divisive issue of which city should serve as its capital- couldn't they just follow the example of the USA, founding a new city to serve as the expanded Confederacy's new capital? The Confederacy of Columbia's own District of Columbia?
OK, in that point, so, where could it be that new city, in the center or with access to the coast?

The problem with the name, is try to avoid the other countries feel with less importance, or with a minor degree in the country
 
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