Persia and Rome don't weaken each other too much and manage to resist the Arab Invasions.

[Kurd Gossemer]

The POD is that for one reason or another(different emperor or Shah, quicker end to the war, the war never starts to begin with) the last Byzantine–Sasanian War of 602–628 doesn't happen or it could even end earlier, the important is that while both empires end up battered they don't have the will to keep going and end up with a ante bellum status quo.


The real question is how this impacts the Arab invasions, one of the reasons the Muslims were able to so easily conquer the whole region was because they Persians fell into a horrible civil war after their war with the Romans that left them basically bankrupt of men and money to resist while the Romans were pretty much in the same position and were barely saved. With a much stronger Persia and Rome around, I can see the Arabs being defeated or at the very least, be contained to the Arabian peninsula.

How does this affects the spread of Islam as well as the result of a Rome who still controls it's territory and a Persia that is still strong and kicking around?

 

[Pesterfield]

It seems like Islam has a few options:
Peaceful proselytizing into Rome and Persia
Expansion into India and Asia by the maritime trade routes, probable proselytizing again because I can't see any large scale naval military moves.
Going into Africa across the Red Sea, with the shorter naval hop this could be military.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

It seems like Islam has a few options:
Peaceful proselytizing into Rome and Persia
Expansion into India and Asia by the maritime trade routes, probable proselytizing again because I can't see any large scale naval military moves.
Going into Africa across the Red Sea, with the shorter naval hop this could be military.

That's what I imagined, Islam would be more of a local thing, a small religion in the world but with a good presence in coastal India, Eastern Africa as well as Persia, they would probably be forbidden in the Roman Empire for a multitude of reasons, so the Levant and North Africa remain Christian, although it would be interesting seeing it spread to Western Europe on it's own without it being seen with the baggage of "religion of the Moorish invader"

 

[Silver01]

depends on the pod here are some

no civil war of 602
no Heraclian revolt
Heraclius crushes the Persians at antioch
all of these lead to an earlier end to the war

for one its likely the arabs never just go invade , the persians with no war would not be happy to see Mohamed threatening oman and yemen so its likely the first islamic persian war occurs in Arabia proper

 

[kholieken]

There are some instabilities in Persia since Hormidz IV, it still possible for Muslim armies to succeed, especially if they decide to not attack Rome.

Similarly Muslim going to Syria-Egypt might still inflict defeat on Rome. They do have advantage in desert fighting.

Laksmid and Gassanid could still be defeated.

 

[Silver01]

Similarly Muslim going to Syria-Egypt might still inflict defeat on Rome. They do have advantage in desert fighting.

but the defenses has not collapsed and the army is intact rather than scattered figthing and putting his egg in one basket because he really did not have options , a war like that would be more like the sassanid war of 572-591 the romans initially lost heavily to the Persians until they managed to to turn it around

 

[Silver01]

Laksmid and Gassanid could still be defeated.

well considering the lakmid dynasty was dissolved prior to the war

 

[twovultures]

I think your scenario completely torpedoes the spread of Islam out of the Arabian peninsula, and may very well doom it within the Arabian peninsula. A defeat by the 'pagan' Persian army that is strong enough to suppress the Arab invasion will be a major morale blow the warriors in the Muslim societies of the peninsula at an early and tender time for this civilization, a sign that God is no longer on their side and something must have gone wrong to fall out of His good graces. This will lead to recrimination which could very well lead to civil war. Materially, without a source to take wealth externally, Arab soldiers will be sorely tempted to conduct raids against their neighbors on the peninsula, also leading to violence and instability within Arabia.
In such a scenario, Islam is less likely to spread by trade in the Indian Ocean as it did IOTL because Islamic civilization will be much less attractive to outsiders-poorer, a place where resources are extracted from rather than a center of consumption as IOTL.

 

[mrmandias]

How could we get the POD without ending Islam?
What if the Muslims win some major victories against the Persians but have some inopportune deaths among the leadership and/or back home so the invasion fizzles but in a way that doesn't tarnish the aura of triumph? Maybe combine it with some tribute payment or loot so there are bennies to distribute and factionalism doesn't get too harsh.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

I think your scenario completely torpedoes the spread of Islam out of the Arabian peninsula, and may very well doom it within the Arabian peninsula. A defeat by the 'pagan' Persian army that is strong enough to suppress the Arab invasion will be a major morale blow the warriors in the Muslim societies of the peninsula at an early and tender time for this civilization, a sign that God is no longer on their side and something must have gone wrong to fall out of His good graces. This will lead to recrimination which could very well lead to civil war. Materially, without a source to take wealth externally, Arab soldiers will be sorely tempted to conduct raids against their neighbors on the peninsula, also leading to violence and instability within Arabia.
In such a scenario, Islam is less likely to spread by trade in the Indian Ocean as it did IOTL because Islamic civilization will be much less attractive to outsiders-poorer, a place where resources are extracted from rather than a center of consumption as IOTL.

That is a possibility I had been thinking about, without them managing to bring to heel neither Persia nor Rome, they're just going to be stuck to the Peninsula instead.

Although I do wonder how both Persia and Rome would deal with the peninsula afterwards, after all the Arabs are still somewhat united despite the crisis of faith and attempting to meddling in could result in a reignition of attacks or at least raids

 

[Silver01]

What if the Muslims win some major victories against the Persians but have some inopportune deaths among the leadership and/or back home so the invasion fizzles but in a way that doesn't tarnish the aura of triumph? Maybe combine it with some tribute payment or loot so there are bennies to distribute and factionalism doesn't get too harsh

Have the war end circa 617, and khosrow getting ousted creating a smaller civil war like bharam chobin rather than the sassanian interregnum of the otl , with the lakmid buffer gone , the victory at dhi qar and the empire a little weakened some victories close to the gulf are possible the problem with that is that the caliphate wont have to invade the roman empire months after the persian one, bonus if you get an islamic army to defeat a persian one invading arabia proper which is likely

 

[Monter]

With the war ending earlier Mohammed would actually face the Sasanians himself and earlier, as they had direct interests in Arabia and without the Roman side show they would intervene in behalf of its Arab clients.

 

[Silver01]

With the war ending earlier Mohammed would actually face the Sasanians himself and earlier, as they had direct interests in Arabia and without the Roman side show they would intervene in behalf of its Arab clients.

the arabs would not hesitate that they had already won against a smaller force in dhiqar of course it depends when the sassanids intervene muhamed was still a minor player till mid 620s were he began to challenge his powerful tribe however depending on how the war goes an all out campaing like that of shapur II is less likely.

 

[Pesterfield]

How could we get the POD without ending Islam?

Some of the places in East Africa and India that do take up Islam are/become expansionists?

Without expansion from Arabia Arabs won't be a ruling class, and taking different paths also means that local traditions that got adopted into Islam will be different.

If Islam becomes established somewhere in East Africa I do think they might have a chance at North Africa eventually, take advantage of Christian schisms to be another option.

 

[Silver01]

well aksum fell in to a dark age maybe the muslims focus on that but i dont think the romans would like that

 

[Arariboia Guamá]

Long I had the idea of muslim ghazis going on viking-style conquests and piracy across the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.

 

[Collondi]

The real question is how this impacts the Arab invasions, one of the reasons the Muslims were able to so easily conquer the whole region was because they Persians fell into a horrible civil war after their war with the Romans that left them basically bankrupt of men and money to resist while the Romans were pretty much in the same position and were barely saved. With a much stronger Persia and Rome around, I can see the Arabs being defeated or at the very least, be contained to the Arabian peninsula.

I doubt Islam could even establish itself as a religion given how much it relied on its conquests as a source of legitimacy. As others have pointed out I think the house of Sassan would be overthrown eventually even without a devastating defeat by the Romans, rebellion among the nobility had been brewing for a while. For a couple of decades we’d likely see the different noble families of Persia fighting a civil war with each other, with two potential outcomes:

A) one noble family manages to come out on top and creates a new dynasty of Persia. This is the less likely one IMO since any new dynasty will need to work hard to establish their legitimacy, and the Eastern Roman Empire would likely intervene to prevent any one dynasty from coming out on top.

B) Persia is carved up by its neighbors. Rome takes control of Armenia and northern Mesopotamia. Arab warlords could invade the western portion of the empire, potentially with Roman support. It would be less like the Arab conquests of OTL and more like the Germanic conquests of the WRE. In the east, nomadic tribes could invade, similar to what happened with Parthia. It’s also possible one of these outside invaders unifies the region, but that has the same problems as scenario A. Zoroastrianism probably falls out of fashion given that it relied heavily on state support, though likely not to the extent that it did OTL. Any number of religions could replace it.

Either way, the ERE would come out on top and is not going to have to worry about Persia for at least a few decades. They might take the opportunity to consolidate their economy and focus on reconquest in the west. First target would likely be the Lombards given their proximity to Rome. While the Romans have the advantage in this war, I could see the Franks/Visigoths getting involved because they would fear a Roman resurgence. Because of that, war in Italy might drag on like it did in the Gothic war, not to mention war in Spain or France

 

[Silver01]

) one noble family manages to come out on top and creates a new dynasty of Persia. This is the less likely one IMO since any new dynasty will need to work hard to establish their legitimacy, and the Eastern Roman Empire would likely intervene to prevent any one dynasty from coming out on top

I think quite the opposite of it's clear one guy is about to win supporting him would give him some legitimacy and foster good relationship with the Persians for a while especially with the Arab migrations even with a unified dynasty the tang arrival to the region would cause a new wave of problems in the otl it was the Arabs who went in to the defensive against the Sogdian city states and successor states of the western Turkic Khaganate here its likely the turgesh go to raid a Persia in crisis

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

The POD is that for one reason or another(different emperor or Shah, quicker end to the war, the war never starts to begin with) the last Byzantine–Sasanian War of 602–628 doesn't happen or it could even end earlier, the important is that while both empires end up battered they don't have the will to keep going and end up with a ante bellum status quo.


The real question is how this impacts the Arab invasions, one of the reasons the Muslims were able to so easily conquer the whole region was because they Persians fell into a horrible civil war after their war with the Romans that left them basically bankrupt of men and money to resist while the Romans were pretty much in the same position and were barely saved. With a much stronger Persia and Rome around, I can see the Arabs being defeated or at the very least, be contained to the Arabian peninsula.

How does this affects the spread of Islam as well as the result of a Rome who still controls it's territory and a Persia that is still strong and kicking around?

Islam remains a local religion, like Sikhism would become IOTL, and world history is unrecognizable.

 

[MrHappy]

This is an interesting discourse about something I know very little. The discussion raises a thought in my mind and I'd appreciate hearing what the other commentators have to say. Under the above scenarios, I assume that the bifurcation of the Roman Empire remains inevitable. Ergo, I further assume that the world still ends up with, minimally, two distinct, and large, branches of Christianity centered in Rome and Constantinople, respectively. Given that Islam isn't around to complete in most of the Levant and No. Africa, might not there be equally large and influential third and/or fourth branches, comprised of either, or both: 1) the assorted oriental Christian and Coptic Christian churches located in pre-Islamic Egypt, Abyssinia, Yemen, and even reaching into the heart of Arabia (at Medina and Mecca), and/or 2) the Aramaic-speaking Christian churches in Assyria and Mesopotamia, and extending into Persia and western India (and I suppose, the Caucasus region, too).

Lastly, I suspect that an African/Red Sea church would be centered in Alexandria or, possibly, Asmara, while a Near Eastern Asiatic church could be anyplace between the River Jordan and Indus River, maybe one of long gone cities of Christendom surviving to the modern era.