Perot pulls out in 1992....

August 4, 1992

Ross Perot has ended his campaign for the presidency due to lack of traction with voters who appeared to be focused on President George H W Bush and Gov. Bill Clinton.

What effect would this have on the 1992 election. Clinton would probably still beat Bush Sr. due to the economy though some have said Bush Sr. could have won re-election....
 

JohnJacques

Banned
Exit polling suggested that Perot support was about 50/50 and that Republican supporters would have been less likely to show up for Bush instead of Perot. So, less of an electoral victory for Clinton, but Clinton still wins.
 
Er, is this an unmarked DBWI?

Because, historically, on August 4th, 1992, H. Ross Perot wasn't running for President. He dropped out on July 16th, 1992 (on the last day of the Democratic Convention), and relaunched his candidacy on October 1st, 1992.

And, well, a DBWI where Clinton managed to win with Perot never dopping out is improbable. At the time he dropped out historically, the frontrunners in the polls were Bush and Perot; Clinton was a pretty distant third. It was Perot dropping out that made Clinton viable. Perot dropping out shifted a good fraction of his supporters to Clinton and who then didn't return in October. If Perot hadn't dropped out, Clinton probably would have come in third in the general, too; with Perot polling first-or-second throughout the summer into the fall, a good fraction of the Democrats that were supporting Clinton in early July would have switched from Clinton to Perot to ensure the defeat of Bush.

If we postulate that Perot dropped out on July 16th as historically and then didn't rejoin the race in October, then Clinton almost assuredly wins. If we postulate Perot doesn't drop out until August 4th and then stays out, then probably less of his support moves to Clinton (since Perot's speech on the last-day-of-DNC dropout included a de facto endorsement of Clinton), and Bush might manage to win.
 

burmafrd

Banned
It was the conservatives not voting for Bush that lost him the election. They pouted and whined and sat on their hands and let Clinton get elected because BUsh had raised taxes after promising he would not.
That and he was not culturally conservative enough.
It is hard even now to really determine just how much support Perot took from Clinton and Bush. I do think its possible that if Perot had been a late withdrawel it would have worked to Bush's' advantage. BUT I am far from sure. BOTH Perot and Clinton campaigned on change (sound familiar?).
 
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