Agreed and agree that there could be an analogue. I think we are disagreeing over sematics. To me close is not close enough.
As for someone born 24 years after a PoD in territory directly effected by the PoD who is a match for someone otl is pretty low. Note that Mary is probably not born yet (she was what, 15-16 when Jesus was born?). Even if you get the parents together, sex on a different day leads to a different kid. Weird changes of circumstances happen to make said kid a different person. I think the odds just are too high. That is a judgement call.
The way I see it: either He is God, in which case, he's both predestined to be born and, quite frankly, it won't matter if his genes are a little different due to random chance, and his mother also has slightly different genes. Or he's not God, in which case, it still doesn't matter. In which case, I still think some Messianic figure is going to have a following that reaches critical mass. I think its reasonable to assume a close analogue to Christianity would arise, and it would likely be called Christianity as it interacts with the Hellenistic world.
But even an identical, OTL Jesus can only do so much to influence the religion that follows. There will be councils and synods and debates and persecutions and unless everything falls in a line exactly as OTL through divine guidance the resulting religion could look very different.
I don't disagree. There's plenty of different sects of Christianity, and different Christological doctrines.