Perestroika but no Glasnost

What would have happened if the CPSU attempted to implement the economic reforms of Perestroika, but didn't attempt the openness and democratization of Glasnost? Could they have survived if the government still cracked down on dissidents and controlled the election process, but had transitioned to a capitalist economy?
 
Well, as long as the nomenklatura believes such a development benefits them more it is achievable. Minority nations in SSRs are going to be troublesome - Baltic states as the Western Tibet-equivalent?
 
"Can the Soviet Union gone the way of China?"

The consensus here seems to be no, not completely. China had suffered many disasters which had totally discredited the old guard. The average Chinese simply had nothing to lose by the time the Gang of Four fell. It helps that someone as ruthless as Deng was able to silence or remove any opposition to his policies (he was also shrewd enough to call his plans market socialism instead of capitalism).

The average Russian at least had experienced the significant gains in living standards. Party apparatchiks, the army, and KGB did risk losses if economic reforms were introduced, and it appears Gorby was too naive to be as ruthless as Deng.

People assume China's boom was wholly due to western multinationals taking advantage of cheap labour, but that's not the whole truth. In the 1980s, China's boom was driven almost entirely by agriculture and light industrial development. It was only in the 90s that consumer goods production really boomed.
 
Well considering how awful the USSR's agricultural policies were, IIRC they had to spend large amounts of hard currency importing grain from countries like the US, Canada, Australia etc., just improving that one sector would be a major boost. Might also be easier, and cause fewer waves, than having to tackle things in the major industrial sectors and cities.
 
Well considering how awful the USSR's agricultural policies were, IIRC they had to spend large amounts of hard currency importing grain from countries like the US, Canada, Australia etc., just improving that one sector would be a major boost. Might also be easier, and cause fewer waves, than having to tackle things in the major industrial sectors and cities.

Soviet agriculture could be modernized. But the Soviet Union wasn't China where the vast majority of the population were peasants who lacked mechanization who could (mostly) continue farming despite rising productivity. Modernizing Soviet agriculture would inevitably displace large numbers of people. It's estimated 25% of the Soviet population was in agriculture. Displacing just a fifth of that will still cause deep unemployment problems within a few years.

And then what?
 
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