Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 5

[Grey Wolf]

We have thus reached 1900

A few things to note :-

1. The island of Heligoland remains British
2. King August I of Prussia, Emperor of Germany was born in 1860
3. Upon the death of Juan III in the early 1890s, King Carlos VII (born 1848) becomes King of Spain
4. Under Russian auspices Montenegro declares itself a kingdom in 1900
5. Ismail is succeeded as Sultan of Egypt upon his death in 1895 by the last of Mehmed Ali's sons, Muhammed Abd-el Halim (born 1831).

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

As slavery becomes less economically viable, and especially under the attempts of several successive presidents to reform and centralise the CSA, several states ban it, some transform it into bonded servitude and only in a couple is it remaining a major institution.

The Empire of Brazil also outlaws it - unlike OTL this doesn't bring any revolution etc. As well as butterflies, one additional reason in OTL was that the empire seemed anachronistic and a lot of modernising Brazilians compared their country to the republic of Argentina. In this ATL the Empire of Mexico remains as a stable and prosperous nation to the North, and the additional involvement of Orleanist France in Brazilian affairs prevents this perception from gaining a foothold

Cuba, upon becoming independent in the 1890s, also outlaws slavery - which in many areas had lapsed anyway due to the constant state of rebellion

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Tsar Nicholas II of Russia (born 1843, son of Aleksandr II) rules over a massive empire.

Unlike OTL it lacks Poland

But it has additional dominion over the following :-

(As directly incorporated by 1900)
- Mongolia
- Sinkiang
- Manchuria
- Alaska (including a slice of the Yukon Territory of OTL)

(As protectorates which are more or less integral to the empire)
- the Principalities (Moldavia and Wallachia)
- Baltistan, Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu
- Afghanistan
- Tibet

In addition, by 1900 Serbia, Malta and Lahore are still seen as client states, whilst the Chinese Empire itself is reliant on Russian backing for its survival as an intact unit

Hungary and Montenegro are seen as full allies, along with Egypt and Greece

The Russian Mediterranean Fleet is being enlarged and strengthened, being key to their strategy

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I am wondering whether the Austro-Russian rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean will become a major theme

If it does, it will realign other nations
- e.g...
Britain will realign as pro-Austrian
the German Empire will realign as pro-Russian
Janina will cleave to Austria

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I suppose people will be wondering about other parts of the world.

Most of Indo-China is independent under native regimes - the original key to this were the European wars of the 1850s and then British and French involvement in the Americas. There is simply little chance to find the resources to make any major moves, and little incentive as the key strategic areas are elsewhere. Apart from Britain in Singapore and the Malay Federated States, and France in (only) Cochin China, the rest is independent - Vietnam, Ventiane, Cambodia, the Shan states (Laos), Siam and Asa (Burma). In addition, the outcome of the 1870s Indian Revolutionary Wars was that most of Assam and Bengal are independent also.

After defeat by Russia, Britain is restricted to Southern and Western coastal India. The North (Baltistan, Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu) is under direct Russian control (as protectorates but pas de difference) whilst Lahore is a Russian client state, and the Mughal Emperor in Delhi is pretty much in Russia's pocket, having little choice in the matter.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Africa is going to be significantly different than in OTL, for a combination of reasons, chief amongst them being :-

- Independent Egypt and its influence
- No unified Germany, or Prussian interest
- No unified Italy, or Two Sicilies interest
- A different South African history
- An Orleanist Belgium

Without British position in Egypt, much of the impetus for the OTL 'Scramble' turning into a race is not there. Egypt will also have its own influence over neighbouring states, or statelets. Similarly the Ottoman Empire (Girayli Empire?) from out of Libya will also have some influence Southwards.

I would see Egypt as having dominion over Soudan directly, and areas of Eritrea, and probably fighting an analogue of OTL's war with Abyssinia for the defining of areas of control

Portugal's nominal control of the huge band of land across Southern Africa remains - I expect there would be eventual formalisation of this, with a situation somewhat akin to OTL Mozambique which was in reality a patchwork of different colonies run very loosely

The South African Republic (Transvaal) and the Orange Free State never had to fight Britain for independence in the first place and remain in that state into the twentieth century. British presence remains the Cape Colony and Natal, with Zululand remaining independent

The Sultanate of Zanzibar remains in possession of much of its coastal territory.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

OK, developing the strategic position it is important to evaluate the relative strength of the Great Powers, especially Britain in this ATL

The German Empire is basically a secondary power, stripped of Prussia's Rhineland territories and 'compensated' by Schleswig-Holstein, the Mecklenburgs, Thuringia and Saxony

It is probably no match as such for even the neighbouring kingdom of Poland (Habsburg, Austrian ally)

France and Austria's alliance, with the League of the South is the main European powerhouse, powerbase etc

Hungary remains a Russian ally, whilst the Italian peninsular is still divided between Austria, Austria's allies, Piedmont-Sardinia, the Papal States and the Two Sicilies

In the Balkans, Bosnia is an Austrian client, whilst increasingly Janina is coming into the Austrian orbit, as is the Ottoman Empire. Serbia is a Russian client whilst Montenegro (now including Dubrovnik and Shkoder) is a major Russian ally, and now a kingdom. Greece is also another major Russian ally.

Although outside of Europe, because of its strong position in the Mediterranean the Sultanate of Egypt has a powerful influence on any European alliance system

Spain is weaker, and has little influence except as a regional power. Belgium with an Orleanist king is looking to Paris a lot, despite official neutrality. One should also not ignore the Netherlands, defeated in 1890 over Luxembourg, and Sweden in the North

With regard to Britain, the empire is much smaller/weaker than in OTL...

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Britain has its major colonies - New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the Cape Colony, the Malay Federated States, West Africa and the Caribbean islands, especially Jamaica

There is also substantial residual colonies in India, though the Indian Commonwealth is all but defunct in large parts of the country with Russian dominance of the North, of the Maharajate of Lahore and over the Mughal emperor, as well as penetration into Nepal

However, defeated in 1896-98 and with no record of great success for a couple of decades, this is very much not the Britain of OTL. The Royal Navy remains strong, but as a force is no better than the French fleet, or the Russian fleet, and probably neither those of the USA, Egypt or Austria

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Regarding the Russo-German alliance, it may not appear to make much sense on the surface for a liberal federated empire to ally with the Russians, but there are different imperatives at work in Great Power relations than these

Britain has what must by now be an undying hatred of the Russian Empire, even stronger than the animosity with the USA. Although Prussia was a close friend, the situation in Germany is very different than it was. The German Empire is weaker than France and Austria, and the main consideration in British policy is Britain's own relative weakness. With Austro-Russian relations extremely cool as a result of the gains for Russia's allies in the peace of 1898, and the resultant unbalance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean, Britain is looking at Austria as an anti-Russian ally

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The situation in the Americas is also more vital to Great Power considerations than it was in OTL at the turn of the century

The USA, CSA, Mexico and Brazil all feature heavily in the considerations of the European powers

With an Austro-British alliance effectively tying Britain and France together, then the CSA, Mexico and Brazil fall into the Alliance orbit

The USA and Russia, plus Egypt and Russia's dominance over the Mughal Emperor, the Chinese Empire and its Balkan allies balance this

In addition, looking at the Far East, Japan is an American client state and the Taiping states have good relations with the USA

We begin to see two defined power structures or alliance systems forming more permanently than for several decades

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

I don't see peace lasting much longer in this scenario, there are now too many potential flashpoints between the two power blocs

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

The 1898 treaty in the Balkans will probably give impetus to several nations, aiming at either Janina or the Ottoman (Girayli) Empire for territorial aggrandizement

I don't want things to have too much OTL convergence but I would think it is Macedonia which is the main area of contention

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Greece is probably the best bet for an expansionist power laying the seeds of greater conflict

Crete is still Ottoman (Girayli) whilst apart from the Western area owned by Janina, Macedonia also remains Girayli

In fact it is probable that the empire will simply be referred to in the West as the Turkish Empire, now one comes to think of it

After taking Southern Epirus from Janina and absorbing the Septinsular Republic, King George I's Greece, secure in the knowledge of the Russian alliance and knowing it also has Egyptian, Montenegrin and Serbian friends around, begins to agitate for more

A Cretan Crisis is narrowly prevented from leading to war

But when Macedonia erupts, there is no putting the lid on the fire

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Greece begins to intervene in Macedonia

Janina and Serbia find themselves involved on opposite sides

Austria gets involved both directly for the Ottoman/Girayli/Turkish Empire, and for Janina

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Its 1910

Austria has gambled that Russia will not back Greece as far as war

But Tsar Nicholas II (son of Aleksandr II) is not to be so easily out-manoevred

The Russian fleet enters the Ionian Sea

A clash with Janinan vessels poses the question to Vienna

Franz Josef leads his empire, and its allies into war

King Louis Philippe III had in secret conference already backed Austria's position

Britain was not involved in deep negoatiations, and in London Prime Minister Randolph Churchill finds himself faced with a war that serves Britain's strategic interests but comes at a time when Britain does not feel ready

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

1910 alliance structures - nations dragged in from the start

Austria
France
Britain
Janina
Turkish Empire
Bosnia
Poland
South German League
Tuscany
Modena


Russia
Egypt
Greece
Hungary
Montenegro
Serbia


Thus, the war immediately has several fronts and major clash points

1. The Southern Balkans
2. The Eastern Mediterranean
3. Austria v Hungary
4. Poland v Russia
5. India (West and Central)
6. Persian Gulf
7. Alaska/Yukon


Pretty soon other nations will enter the conflict

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Anyone gonna comment ?

Anyone 'like' my war ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Heads of State

BRITAIN

King William V
(age is around 70)
Prime Minister Randolph Churchill
(born 1849 so aged in early 60s)

FRANCE

King Louis Philippe III
(born 1869 so aged in his early 40s)

GERMAN EMPIRE

King August I


RUSSIAN EMPIRE

Tsar Nicholas II
(born 1843, so aged in his later 60s)

EGYPT

I think that after the death of Muhammed Abd-el Halim in the early 1900s, the succession by Islamic succession law devolves upon :-
Hussein Kamel
born 1853, died 1917
son of Ismail

SPAIN

King Jaime III
(son of King Carlos VII who died in 1909)
(born 1870 so aged 40)

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well, I'm off to bed - hopefully I will wake up and find some interesting comments and questions on this thread

Grey Wolf

 

[Tom_B]

The German Emperor

Continuing with my thought that there is a predominantly cultural impulse bring Germany together and that unlike OTL, Prussia is not not leading very well then my off the cuff speculation (which I may abandon in < 24 hours) is that perhaps the King of Prussia does not become the largely ceremonial emperor but another Hohenzollern is chosen with a distinct line of succession set up making Prussian dominance of the polity less than OTL.

Tom