Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 4 (alternate 19th century)

Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 4 (alternate 19th century)

To recap, it is the beginning of the 1880s..... Recent world events centre on the Second War of the Americas in the mid 1870s. Over-ambitious Union leaders got the USA embroiled not only in fighting Britain and Spain in Cuba, but also in an attempt to reconquer the Confederacy which led to the direct intervention of France. The USA was forced to accept peace terms, though they gained more of Oregon and some of New Brunswick in the peace treaty.

Results of this war included a French presence in the Confederacy, and modernising forces gaining an upper hand as the Southern states realise the peril they would have been in on their own, with unreformed and divisive institutions.

Britain has financially over-stretched itself, and a combination of factors including the accession of a weak king lead to a collapse in British power. George VI (grand-daughter of Queen Charlotte I) is so fearful of popular pressure that he basically allows British politics to be dominated by the Radicals agenda. This results in revolutions in Ireland and India, and eventually in London a Tory counter-coup which is led successfully by the king's brother who becomes King William V. Regarding Ireland, the Tories have to accept Home Rule which has already been granted. With regard to India, the Duke of Cambridge makes the best of a dire situation - the East India Company is dissolved, and lands which have not been lost are taken under direct British administration. The rest is ruled by native princes, or even popular governments, and all is taken into a Commonwealth of India based on the German Confederation

The USA begins to focus on East Asia, establising relations with the Taiping successor states in China, and becoming dominant in Japan.

Russia has reached its tentacles into Mongolia and Tibet, as well as absorbing Kashgaria and the rest of Dzungaria. Russian influence is also increasingly strong in Afghanistan and Persia.

The marriage of King William V to the daughter of King Friedrich Wilhelm V of Prussia, Princess Charlotte, raises French fears that an Anglo-Prussian alliance is rising on its flanks. It also brings calls for France to focus on European matters more, and somewhat less on the Americas where French influence can be found from Brazil to the CSA. France does have a prominent position in Spanish affairs, the restored Juan III owing what stability he has to French aid.

Grey Wolf
 
The CSA has 6-year presidential terms. These run from 1862-1868 (Jefferson Davis), 1868-1874, 1874-1880 and in 1880 William W. Loring is elected president at the age of 62. A native of Florida and a career army officer, he had fought in the 1840s California War, and in the American Civil War (later renamed the First War of the Americas) Loring takes up the post of Major General in the Confederate Armies. By the time of the Second War of the Americas he is deskbound, but returns to active duty upon the Union invasion of the South, and fights along French troops in the Mississippi valley. Exposed to French ideas, and seeing the disunion among the Confederate States he becomes convinced that a more centralised authority is needed above the states, if the South is to survive. Britain's collapse into internal discord raises warning signs, with one of the CSA's major allies seemingly out for the count there is a clear worry that one day France will not be there to be relied upon. No one believes that the Union will not have another go at the right moment, so in order to prevent that, or to be able to survive if it does, the CSA will need to emerge as a stronger and more unified nation

Fighting the election on this theme, Loring wins against a veteran politician, and begins his term with the announcement of reforms.

The news from Europe of the British Tory counter-coup, followed soon by the Anglo-Prussian marriage, and the fears now being voiced in Paris that the Orleans monarchy is over-stretched and needs to refocus on Europe, seem to prove Loring's point.

The Confederate presidency embarks on a course that sets it in collision with the Confederate Supreme Court.

Grey Wolf
 
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Fascinating. I was looking forward to the next installment of your timeline.

About a possible conflict between the CSA President and the Supreme Court, this could prove very interesting.
 
The Septinsular Republic (Corfu etc) in the Ionian Islands has long been a hotbed of intrigue for Austrian, Janinan and Greek interests. Under British protection since the Congress of Vienna, it has increasingly become independent in fact as the British have withdrawn most of their forces from the Mediterranean over the past few decades

- - -

"Please feel free to do so.", Commander Noakes capped the telescope and handed it to his adjutant. Beside him, First Lieutenant Simms snorted,
"I would wager the Habsburg eagle flies over her, sir"
"You would therefore be correct, lieutenant."
Simon Noakes looked back out to port with the naked eye. A column of smoke marked the position of the Austrian vessel. With the telescope he had been able to see her form - a barbette ironclad, rigging stowed, and of the latest lines. He would make a wager of his own that she was of the Erzherzog Rudolf class, if not the nameship herself.
"Where do you think she is headed, sir ?"
"That is, indeed, a good question."
It was, in fact, the key question. The Septinsular Republic was still under British protection. An Austrian warship steaming East in this area of the Ionian Sea could be headed for Santa Maura, or maybe it would alter course and head for Greece or Janina instead. Of course, it could just as easily reverse course. But, his ship was there to observe what it was doing, and take action if necessary.
Commander Noakes earnestly hoped that it would not be necessary. HMS Charybdis, his vessel was more armoured frigate than ironclad battleship, and would be no match for a Rudolf.
"Trim speed by two knots", he instructed.
He did not want to give the other vessel the excuse of feeling under pressure.

- - -

Grey Wolf
 
Looks good to me, Grey Wolf! If slavery comes up, given that the South was twice saved by France and/or Great Britain, simply have the phase-out of slavery imposed quietly, in a fashion similar to Brazil, but ten-fifteen years sooner.

Say, what exactly are the borders of the USA vis a vis the CSA? Specifically, Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, etc.

It would seem to me that the US might have regained Oklahoma or New Mexico in the second war.

For that matter, given the situation starting in the 1830s, I would have predicted an earlier and larger standing army and navy for the USA, with the CSA perhaps still gaining independence thanks to foreign intervention, but the USA keeping Kentucky and the territories west of the Mississippi. Given southern frustration over Tejas( ;) ), this would have been likely, just as the south ironically enabled the USA to acquire 18 new and modern warships in the last years before the Civil War. However, had the USA possessed a larger standing army in 1861, say a mere 50,000 men, the CSA would have been in terrible danger barring immediate British/French involvment. A third of the officers may have gone south, but the enlisted men stayed north.
 
1882
Janina and Austria intrigue in the Septinsular Republic, looking to influence political events

1883
Greece counter the threat to their own interests by invasion

Britain is not wanting to be seen as weak any more - and despatch a major expeditionary force

Russia demands that Britain guarantees not to attack Greece directly

Alaska, Northern India and Persia fuel growing anti-Russian feeling

British warships bombard Piraeus
Troops landed in the NW Pelopenessus

Russian battlefleet passes through the Aegean

Egyptian fleet (Ibrahim is allied to Russia) arrives at Crete

Austria urges a peaceful solution
France backs Austria's position

This marks the final breakdown of the Anglo-French alliance

Britain evacuates Greece

1884
Peace treaty confirms independence of the Septinsular Republic under British protection
But Britain must not base Royal Navy or army forces there permanently

Internal Tory coup against the Marquess of Salisbury (bron 1830 and who attained his title in 1868 btw)

The 15th Earl of Derby (born 1826, acceded 1869) forms an administration that also includes Lord Randolph Churchill (3rd son of the Duke of Marlborough, born 1849)

Grey Wolf
 
Grimm Reaper said:
Looks good to me, Grey Wolf! If slavery comes up, given that the South was twice saved by France and/or Great Britain, simply have the phase-out of slavery imposed quietly, in a fashion similar to Brazil, but ten-fifteen years sooner.

Say, what exactly are the borders of the USA vis a vis the CSA? Specifically, Kentucky, West Virginia, Missouri, etc.

It would seem to me that the US might have regained Oklahoma or New Mexico in the second war.

For that matter, given the situation starting in the 1830s, I would have predicted an earlier and larger standing army and navy for the USA, with the CSA perhaps still gaining independence thanks to foreign intervention, but the USA keeping Kentucky and the territories west of the Mississippi. Given southern frustration over Tejas( ;) ), this would have been likely, just as the south ironically enabled the USA to acquire 18 new and modern warships in the last years before the Civil War. However, had the USA possessed a larger standing army in 1861, say a mere 50,000 men, the CSA would have been in terrible danger barring immediate British/French involvment. A third of the officers may have gone south, but the enlisted men stayed north.

Thank you for your interesting comments

Nuovo Mexico is largely part of the Empire of Mexico, though about the Northern 1/5 or so was acquired during the California/Oregon War

The independent CSA included Kentucky and Western Virginia as well as Oklahoma to be. All of these were retained as a result of the second war where the French army directly intervening in the action on the continent helped turn round a rout and threatened the Union heartland.

I suppose there might have been a US standing army of some size, its a bit late to speculate now ! Anyway, there may well have been a SOUTHERN portion to it, aimed against the potential Mexican threat from Tejas.

Grey Wolf
 
The attemp to impose Slavery on Texas after the Americans stole it , [Under Mexico Slavery was Illegal] Had Major conquenses in the States Rights debate, & the comprimise of 1850. With out Texas this the whole States Rights vs the Federal Gov't, would be different.

Also without Texas as a Slave state the imbalance issue would have come sooner. Maybe this CSA seceeded in 1856.
 
DuQuense said:
The attemp to impose Slavery on Texas after the Americans stole it , [Under Mexico Slavery was Illegal] Had Major conquenses in the States Rights debate, & the comprimise of 1850. With out Texas this the whole States Rights vs the Federal Gov't, would be different.

Also without Texas as a Slave state the imbalance issue would have come sooner. Maybe this CSA seceeded in 1856.

Rather than go back over, and rewrite what is now the past in this ATL, one can just accept that it was delayed for other reasons - one of the most likely would be the aftermath of the 1840s war against Mexico and Britain, that left the USA feeling more prone to outside attack etc. One could probably combine this with the point mentioned earlier about standing armies - if the threat is perceived to come from Mexico as well as from the British, and the Indian Nations, then a fair proportion of any standing army will be both raised and based in the South.

So, the threat of Mexican or British conflict flaring up again serves to keep a lid on the problem through the 1850s. Remember, the Mexico of Iturbide is not analogous to that of Santa Anna et al - this country has been forging its unity from the 1820s onwards, has had relatively stable government and outside investment which is long-term and not looking for the quick buck, and has finances which are more or less stable. It IS a threat, and it cannot be ignored. The acquisition of California and a slice of Northern Nuevo Mexico still leaves about 4/5 of Nuevo Mexico along with Tejas as Mexican territory abutting the USA (pre-ACW). Tejas is the more developed and greater populated, but it is increasingly possible for Mexico to launch an invasion through Nuevo Mexico should it wish. The main focus, though, would be (and indeed did prove to be in the ACW) on San Diego, the cession of which in the 1840s war is not accepted as permanent by the Iturbides in Mexico City

Thus, I think a case can be made for keeping the Union together during the 1850s as the external pressures serve this purpose

Grey Wolf
 
Note regarding Egypt 1880s, below when I said 'Ibrahim' I meant ISMAIL, my brain having entered a timeloop it would seem

The rulers of Egypt in this ATL will more or less follow OTL's up to Ibrahim, as this follows the usual Islamic succession pattern of oldest male dynasty member...

Thus Mehmed Ali aged 80 dies in 1849, the last year or so of his life having seen a regency by his son Ibrahim (who dies in late 1848) and then Ibrahim's nephew Abbas

OTL Abbas was murdered by two of his slaves in 1854. Whilst that event may not in itself happen, he was hardly the figure that either his father or grandfather had been and would quite likely have been removed at some point. Lets say in the later 1850s as a result of the European conflicts, a new dynamism is thought to be needed

Said, 4th son of Mehmed Ali born in 1822, is thus in his late 30s when he takes over as ruler of Egypt.

OTL Said died suddenly in 1863 - I'm not sure why, so will resume this list when I've tracked it down, if indeed I am able to do that

Grey Wolf
 
I can't find a cause of death for Said - the only note I can find is that it was 'sudden'

Its probably not massively important as under Islamic succession law, Ismail was his successor anyway, so by the 1880s Ismail is on the Egyptian throne, whether or not Said lives another putative 10-15 years

Grey Wolf
 
A small vignette

-------

The Confederate ironclad William A Webb rounded the end of the mole and sailed as stately as a swan into the inner harbour at Ostende. Named for one of the CSA's naval heroes from what had then been termed the 'Confederate War of Independence', it was fitting that the black-hulled vessel was carrying a mixture of civilian and military dignatories. After the war, Webb had risen in the service to become Assistant Secretary of the Navy to President Jefferson Davis' successor in 1868. Only his early death in 1873 had robbed him of eventual promotion to the top job.
Captain Thomas Jefferson Philps moved off his bridge, to greet his guests now emerging from their cabins below. One man had no need to emerge. Pierre Gustave Toutant Beauregard, famed military commander from both the 1860s war, and the mid 1870s conflict, had been standing on deck, watching with interest ever since the Belgian port had come into view.
"Sir", Philps was all respect when dealing with this man of giant reputation, "Crown Prince Gaston's delegation is in sight upon the dockside. As soon as we are alongside, Commander Forbes will run out the gangway."
"I see that the prince lives up to his reputation.", Beauregard observed drolly.
"Yes sir", Philps did not think it fitting to discuss the heir to the throne of Belgium in such tones.
Even so, he could not deny that King Louis' eldest son evinced an obvious love of ceremony. Arranged before them was probably the entire band of Belgium's small navy. And Lord only knew who the half dozen men in dress frocks were. Hopefully someone would make a full introduction

------

OTL The Belgian National Conference on 3rd February 1831 elected Prince Louis of Orleans (born 1814) as King of Belgium. Prince Louis was the 4th child (and second son) of Louis Philippe of France. Louis Philippe was induced to reject the proposal, and the Belgian National Conference eventually chose Leopold of Saxe-Coburg

In this ATL due to a combination of circumstances, Louis Philippe accepts the nomination of his son as King of Belgium. It should also be noted that in the ATL, Leopold is Prince Consort to Queen Charlotte I of Great Britain and Ireland

By the 1880s, King Louis of Belgium is aged in his late 60s. His son and heir, Gaston was born in 1842 and is thus around 40 years of age.

King Louis is thus an UNCLE of the French king, King Louis Philippe II

Grey Wolf
 
Alaskan gold is becoming a hot political issue. The Imperial Russian Empire has outposts and mining ventures, but it is joint ventures with United States companies which really open up the frontier

This brings frequent clashes with the British-Canadian authorities. The definitive boundary between Russian Alaska and the Yukon Territory has yet to be finalised, and there are frequent border crossings, clashes and disputed claims. An international commission seeks to redress specific issues, but neither Russia (backed by the USA) nor the British will agree to any outside mediation of the core issue - where the exact border lies.

Throughout the early 1880s, tensions remain high, never quite teetering over into war

Alaska, combined with tensions in Northern India, and Persia, as well as events in the Eastern Mediterranean raise Anglo-Russian tensions to their highest level since the last war

Grey Wolf
 
Events during the early 1880s...

The Suez Canal is finally completed under Austrian finance, Sultan Ismail having over-stretched Egyptian finances in the construction of a modern fleet and in the industrialisation and modernisation of the country's infrastructure.

A formal Austro-French alliance is signed, aimed at controlling events in the Mediterranean, and countering the perceived growing threat of the Anglo-Prussian duality

Russia remains aloof, but there is a definite warming in Russo-Austrian relations which sees Hungarian markets open to the Austrians, and Polish markets open to the Russians. Talks commence about the possibility of an Eastern European Customs Union on the modern of the Zollverein

Within Britain, the Earl of Derby is re-elected in 1885, an event which sees a gradual erosion of the state of emergency and a re-emergence into a state of normalcy. Some leading Radicals are released from imprisonment, and censorship is at last relaxed. Lord Randolph Churchill, aged just 36 is made Foreign Secretary as Derby brings in fresh blood and begins what becomes known as the [um] Age

Grey Wolf
 
Landshark said:
The Imperial Russian Empire?

Well obviously, lol. I think I was torn between saying the Imperial Russian forces and the Russian Empire and came across an unexpected and unintended threesome

How's the world ?

Grey Wolf
 
With its most recent backers now effectively in alliance with its greatest potential enemy, the Ottoman Empire (Girayli ? empire) finds itself unable to defend against Russian demands upon it. Greece finds itself in a similar bind, Russia having recently acted as its saviour (to the minds of many) and now making increased demands as recompense.

Looking to counter growing Russian influence around the world, and what is now termed in London 'the French threat', Lord Derby's government begins to cast around for allies. Subsidies, trading treaties and advantageous loan agreements see Britain attempt to displace France in the Mexican Empire and the Empire of Brazil

Within Asia, Britain negotiates a treaty with the Sultanate of Baghdad, and seeks to re-establish some degree of significant influence in Persia.

Friendly relations are also established with the Chinese Empire, though little effective aid reaches Peking

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Well obviously, lol. I think I was torn between saying the Imperial Russian forces and the Russian Empire and came across an unexpected and unintended threesome

There are just too many double entendres for that last bit.

Grey Wolf said:
How's the world ?

Which one?

If it's the real one I sent you a PM last night or at least I think I did, might have pressed the wrong button.

If it's an alternate one I'm planning on doing some work on TFALWT sometime today.

Interesting to see Randolph Churchill in this. I'd considered asking WI he stay in the government and didn't catch an STD at various times. He might get a mention in TFALWT.

I await with baited breath the news of what the Non-Imperial Russian Empire is doing in all this.
 
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