DuQuense said:
1 Naval race-- is there a "Mahan on Seapower" type in this TL. Greece with it's Island seems a natural for a Large Navy. Of Course if Sicily [?how much of Italy does Austria have Again?] Unites with Piedmont/Sardonia, they would want to Counter Austria too. ?A Sicily-Greece Alliance? [Shades of Alexanderian Greece].
The Italian peninsular is made up as follows, from South to North :-
1. The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies (basically Naples and Sicily)
2. The Papal States (includes the Romagna)
3. The Grand Duchy of Tuscany
4. The duchies of Parma and Modena
5. The Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia (Savoy with Genoa, plus Sardinia)
6. The Vice-Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia, part of the Austrian Empire
Of these, Tuscany and Modena are Habsburg states, whilst Parma is Bourbon but closely related to the Habsburgs also. These three states basically know that their continued survival depends on Austria retaining a strong presence in the North.
OTL Piedmont-Sardinia had a protector and advancer of its interests in Napoleon III. This is entirely lacking in this ATL where the Orleans monarchy is not interested in stirring up trouble on its doorstep (OTL even Napoleon III realised he had over-stepped the mark with Italy as far as French interests were concerned)
The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies is Bourbon, generally conservative, would have close-ish links to France and Spain but is not much of an enterprising or pioneering power.
There has been 1848 in this timeline (apart from the abdication of Louis Philippe I in Paris and the assumption of power by his son Ferdinand I) so some of the underlying tensions that 1848 brought into the forefront, and which later snow-balled into revolt and war in the late 1850s, early 1860s OTL are not present in this ATL. Piedmont-Sardinia has tried to take advantage of Austrian weakness after the independence of Hungary in the 1850s, but Austria was able to inflict a decisive defeat upon them, and secure for the time-being its hold on Northern Italy.
Franz Josef, coming to the throne in 1872 sees the preservation of the Italian lands as vital to the future survival of Austria. With Hungary and Transylvania lost in the 1850s, and Galicia ceded to the Habsburg kingdom of Poland, the empire consists of :- Lombardy-Venetia, Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia (minus Dubrovnik), Austria proper with Carinthia, Istria etc, and Bohemia-Moravia with Austrian Silesia.
As such it has a greater naval focus than OTL. On land it has a major neighbour in Hungary, which is basically a Russian client in this period, and a major allied neighbour in Poland, which under King Maximilian retains close links with Austria. Prussia is weaker than OTL in respect to the Bismarckian state, but is no weaker than Friedrich Wilhelm IV's Prussia. His ATL son Friedrich Wilhelm V is no coward nor a man lacking in vision, but he faces a different strategic situation. Any conflict with Austria must bring in Poland on Vienna's side, whilst Orleans France is not the conniving, double-dealing France of OTL's Second Empire, and offers less opportunity to try to strike a deal of some kind. The Schleswig-Holstein question has been solved peacably, and in Hannover and Bavaria, Prussia knows it has major problems if it should try to exert unequal influence within the German Confederation
As such, the question of German Unification is still viewed as something of a pipe dream. There has been no 1848 in Germany, and whilst Prussia may wish to forge something stronger it cannot play the same game, or anything close to the same game, as Bismarck did in OTL. Thus, without these pressures, Austria is free to look outwards as the 1870s move on...
Grey Wolf