Penny Flick, Penny Toss - Part 2

Anyone got any ideas about this naval race ?

Or about what happens in the Americas ?

Or what is going on in Asia at this time ?

Grey Wolf
 
President Voorhee's administration is a time of much reflection in the United States. Whilst the addition of more territory to Oregon, and the acquisition of some of New Brunswick hide the extent of the defeat, the nation is traumatised and seeks new avenues for its energies. With France increasingly involved in the Caribbean, replacing Britain as Spain's ally in Cuba for example, and politically important from Florida to the Yucatan, the United States turns increasingly towards the Pacific, and the Far East.

The end of the 1870s is a period of crisis in Britain. King George V attempts to hold back the more deep-rooted policies of the Liberal-Radical coalition, but a mass demonstration in 1878 forces him to back down. A universal suffrage act is passed, with no property qualifications, giving the vote to all males aged 21 or over. In disgust, George V abdicates and his son ascends the throne as King George VI

King George VI, grandson of Queen Charlotte I had seen her assassinated as a small child and lives in constant fear of the same thing happening to himself. As such his natural conservative inclinations are over-shadowed by a desire not to upset the people, or their representatives in parliament. Suddenly faced with a compliant king, the Liberal-Radical coalition begin to push forward health, pension and education reform. These run into a solid bulwark in the House of Lords, engendering another constitutional crisis

During this period the Royal Navy, much battered by the war in the Americas, begins to fall further into disrepair. Few funds for new construction or major rebuilding are forthcoming from the Liberal-Radical coalition, and the British are faced with a fleet of ageing and increasingly ineffective ironclads, with cruisers now being out-classed even by some of the vessels being built in the Eastern Mediterranean

Grey Wolf
 
1 Naval race-- is there a "Mahan on Seapower" type in this TL. Greece with it's Island seems a natural for a Large Navy. Of Course if Sicily [?how much of Italy does Austria have Again?] Unites with Piedmont/Sardonia, they would want to Counter Austria too. ?A Sicily-Greece Alliance? [Shades of Alexanderian Greece].

2 Asia ?Can whe get a Indepentent India in the 1880-90 time frame?, I think that would be neat. With all the fuss over Spain & Cuba ?what happened to the Phillipines?

3 Americas - In the book, 9 nations of North America it is pointed out that Havana was the capital of Hispanic America, Pre Castro. Also pre Castro, Hershey was a cuss word in Cuba, but a independent Cuba with US industrial investment, [not just augacultual] May be able to make the Jump to First World status. And as NA is in Trouble Maybe in TTL Argentina or Brazil may also.
 
DuQuense said:
1 Naval race-- is there a "Mahan on Seapower" type in this TL. Greece with it's Island seems a natural for a Large Navy. Of Course if Sicily [?how much of Italy does Austria have Again?] Unites with Piedmont/Sardonia, they would want to Counter Austria too. ?A Sicily-Greece Alliance? [Shades of Alexanderian Greece].

The Italian peninsular is made up as follows, from South to North :-

1. The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies (basically Naples and Sicily)
2. The Papal States (includes the Romagna)
3. The Grand Duchy of Tuscany
4. The duchies of Parma and Modena
5. The Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia (Savoy with Genoa, plus Sardinia)
6. The Vice-Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia, part of the Austrian Empire

Of these, Tuscany and Modena are Habsburg states, whilst Parma is Bourbon but closely related to the Habsburgs also. These three states basically know that their continued survival depends on Austria retaining a strong presence in the North.

OTL Piedmont-Sardinia had a protector and advancer of its interests in Napoleon III. This is entirely lacking in this ATL where the Orleans monarchy is not interested in stirring up trouble on its doorstep (OTL even Napoleon III realised he had over-stepped the mark with Italy as far as French interests were concerned)

The Kingdom of the Two Sicilies is Bourbon, generally conservative, would have close-ish links to France and Spain but is not much of an enterprising or pioneering power.

There has been 1848 in this timeline (apart from the abdication of Louis Philippe I in Paris and the assumption of power by his son Ferdinand I) so some of the underlying tensions that 1848 brought into the forefront, and which later snow-balled into revolt and war in the late 1850s, early 1860s OTL are not present in this ATL. Piedmont-Sardinia has tried to take advantage of Austrian weakness after the independence of Hungary in the 1850s, but Austria was able to inflict a decisive defeat upon them, and secure for the time-being its hold on Northern Italy.

Franz Josef, coming to the throne in 1872 sees the preservation of the Italian lands as vital to the future survival of Austria. With Hungary and Transylvania lost in the 1850s, and Galicia ceded to the Habsburg kingdom of Poland, the empire consists of :- Lombardy-Venetia, Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia (minus Dubrovnik), Austria proper with Carinthia, Istria etc, and Bohemia-Moravia with Austrian Silesia.

As such it has a greater naval focus than OTL. On land it has a major neighbour in Hungary, which is basically a Russian client in this period, and a major allied neighbour in Poland, which under King Maximilian retains close links with Austria. Prussia is weaker than OTL in respect to the Bismarckian state, but is no weaker than Friedrich Wilhelm IV's Prussia. His ATL son Friedrich Wilhelm V is no coward nor a man lacking in vision, but he faces a different strategic situation. Any conflict with Austria must bring in Poland on Vienna's side, whilst Orleans France is not the conniving, double-dealing France of OTL's Second Empire, and offers less opportunity to try to strike a deal of some kind. The Schleswig-Holstein question has been solved peacably, and in Hannover and Bavaria, Prussia knows it has major problems if it should try to exert unequal influence within the German Confederation

As such, the question of German Unification is still viewed as something of a pipe dream. There has been no 1848 in Germany, and whilst Prussia may wish to forge something stronger it cannot play the same game, or anything close to the same game, as Bismarck did in OTL. Thus, without these pressures, Austria is free to look outwards as the 1870s move on...

Grey Wolf
 
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DuQuense said:
2 Asia ? Can whe get a Indepentent India in the 1880-90 time frame?, I think that would be neat. With all the fuss over Spain & Cuba, what happened to the Phillipines?

I am not aware that the Philippines was historically in revolt in this period ? It seems to have had different antecedents, and one may think that the rise of Japan plays a more significant role in Filipino internal affairs. Thus, in this period the Philippines are probably basically free of major troubles.

India is a nightmare situation for the British. They are not going to be able to deal with it as per OTL, and the Mutiny has now dragged on so long it is basically a revolt. There will be a lot more about India soon, I promise :)

Grey Wolf
 
DuQuense said:
3 Americas - In the book, '9 nations of North America' it is pointed out that Havana was the capital of Hispanic America, pre-Castro. Also pre-Castro, Hershey was a cuss word in Cuba, but an independent Cuba with US industrial investment, [not just agricultural] may be able to make the jump to First World status. And as NA is in Trouble, maybe in TTL Argentina or Brazil may also.

The longer-term future of Cuba remains uncertain in this ATL at present. Its unlikely to have any major US investment in the foreseeable future as the US has just been driven from the island. What happens next though is more messy. The British who had helped the Spanish royalist commanders to victory have left to deal with domestic problems of their own. Whilst France to a degree has taken their place, France won't be sending in masses of troops. It is up to the restored King Juan III and his government to try to sort the mess out. On the positive side, they know at least that there won't be the same kind of US meddling and intervention as there was at the start of the 1870s.

One could certainly imagine that Argentina and the Empire of Brazil may be able to benefit from the events further North. Also benefitting, of course, is the Iturbide Mexican Empire which may also be able to industrialise with French investment, and with a less venal French ruler than OTL Napoleon III, Mexico may be treated with greater consideration and on fairer terms than was ever the case in OTL. In fact, one would probably posit that it HAS been ever since the stabilisation of Agustin I's empire in the 1820s. This would have had significant results, not least freeing up Mexican revenues for Mexico (rather than for European banks), and the lack of political feuding as among the various OTL political leaders (Santa Anna etc who basically wrecked the republic's finances) means that there has been greater stability, and more long-term plans which are coming to fruition. Mexico of course also retains Tejas and Nuevo Mexico, and whilst the latter will probably remain something of a backwater, the discovery of oil in Tejas, with French investment, will produce a major boom to the economy

Grey Wolf
 
Naval Race

My thoughts about the 1870s naval race in the Mediterranean see a major investment and modernisation/strengthening of the Austrian fleet, coupled with an expansion of its role and squadrons which regularly cruise the Mediterranean rather than the Adriatic. This is coupled with Franz Josef's desire to cement alliances and friendships fundamental to his over-riding vision of protecting the empire. As the greatest potential source for instability remains the Russian Empire, Austria embarks upon an ambitious programme of mini-alliances in the Balkans and the Levant.

The Ottoman Empire is an easy win as an ally. With its traditional ally, Britain, now apparently collapsing into internal disorder, and with France focused almost entirely overseas, the Giray are happy to embrace Austrian overtures of friendship and to formalise an alliance. In this ATL, the Ottoman Empire has stabilised as consisting of :- Central and Western Macedonia (including Salonika), the Bulgarian and Thracian lands, and Anatolia with Mosul. The rest has been gone for several decades, and with Russia in the Principalities and with Egypt, Russia's ally, in Syria, Istanbul is eager to find an ally to prevent the threat of a pincer movement ever being enacted.

Austria overtures to Ibrahim in Egypt are less successful, as Egyptian independence is based upon the Russian alliance, but various sources of conflict are negotiated away, and Ibrahim is able to negotiate Austrian (mainly Lombard) funding to begin construction of the Suez Canal.

In the Balkans, Bosnia remains an Austrian client state whilst Serbia remains a Russian one. Montenegro, still closely allied to Russia, embarks upon the construction of a small fleet based at Dubrovnik, using Russian grants and loans from Piedmont-Sardinian banks to do so.

Janina, as ever, plays both sides off against the other, entering into closer relations with Vienna but retaining its links with Russia. Greece, heavily defeated by Janina in the last Balkan convulsion, strikes outward, constructing a fleet to be proud of which severely taxes the country's finances, Diplomatically they face the same difficulties as their neighbours now that Britain, and increasingly France, are focusing elsewhere as a priority. In something of a diplomatic coup, King George I of Greece engineers an understanding, something short of an alliance but not much, with Ibrahim's Egypt.

In terms of major modern warships, the three most advanced nations with the most numerous fleets in this theatre by the end of the 1870s are Austria, Russia and Egypt. The Ottoman EmpirE, Greece and Janina are on a different level but still significant players, whilst Montenegro is significantly smaller but still possessed of a modern force.

In contrast, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies whilst it has numerous vessels on its books, has few modern ones and many which are little better than hulks. Whilst with effort it can put on a show (somewhat akin to OTL's Ottoman Empire) it has few ships of viable fighting potential.

Grey Wolf
 
1880 sees London being the centre of conspiracy and cabals. Major social reform legislation is held up in the House of Lords, and the Radicals are threatening King George VI with mass demonstrations if he doesn't use his power to force it through, or to create new peers to balance the Tory heirarchy. At the same time, the Liberal-Radical leaders have met with the leaders of the Irish Revolt and promised them complete Home Rule. However, again, this bill passed in the Commons is stalled in the Lords

On top of this comes news of serious reverses for the under-strength and almost forgotten British armies in India

The conspiracies against the Liberal-Radicals now take on the mantle of being a conspiracy against the king who is seen as weak-minded and their lacky. The royal dukes of York (brother of the late King George V) and Cambridge (grandson of George III) meet with the young Prince William, Duke of Gloucester, younger brother to King George VI by quite a few years. Together with veteran officers of both the Cuban and Indian campaigns, they establish a plan of action.

During April and May the news from overseas seems to be increasingly dire. A mix of British reverses, and successes for those nations which are seen as Britain's imperial rivals, causes increased agitation amongst the mercantile classes. British influence in foreign markets is collapsing, and the signing of a Franco-Brazilian trade treaty appears to threaten the vital South American markets. Added to the influence of Louis Philippe II's France's influence in the CSA, Mexico and increasingly within Spain, it appears that France may well be in a position to freeze out British interests completely in the Americas.

May 1st, news reaches London of a humiliating defeat at Bangalore to what amounts to an Indian peasants army.

May 4th, the royal conspirators meet at Warwick House and agree to put their plan into action on the 12th

May 10th, King George VI issues an ultimatum to the House of Lords - pass the stalled legislation or he will create new peers from amongst the Radicals.

May 11th, the French ambassador gets wind of a coup in the air, and reports the matter to Paris. The French government pass the information on to the government in London, looking to benefit from British disunity

May 12th. the Duke of York raises the standard of revolt at Tower Hill. Things go disastrously wrong for him as, fore-warned, the government has been tailing him for several hours. Troops loyal to the government crush his force of veterans and reservists in a 5-hour battle. The Duke of York is taken alive but later killed by one of his captors - it is put about that he has died of his wounds

Fearing that their roles are discovered, the Dukes of Cambridge and Gloucester flee the capital. Cambridge attempts to rally support in the West but there is little cohesion and he is forced to take ship for France. The Duke of Gloucester atempts to open a line of communication to his brother, but King George VI is being kept in seclusion by his Radical ministers and advisors. Hearing that a force of dragoons is coming for him, Gloucester too takes flight and heads into exile in France.

Convulsions and mini revolts rock the country for the next several months. There is much discontent with the government and with King George VI but without the figureheads the revolts fail to coalesce.

King George VI ennobles a rank of Radicals and forces through the stalled legislation in the Lords. With charges of treason and conspiracy being thrown around the Tory heirarchy cannot afford to challenge these events with anything like their full force

In India, the main British army is forced to surrender at Calcutta. The Liberal-Radicals instruct the remainder of their forces to seek terms.

When news of this turn of events reaches the public, there is a spontaneous uprising across many towns and cities. The Duke of Gloucester returns from exile with a small force of veterans. He is met by several aristocratic army officers who pledge the allegiance of various army units. Gathering his forces, the young royal duke marches on the capital.

Faced with increasing desertions, the Radicals muster a citizens army and block the approaches to London. At Guildford a major part of this army is routed and the Duke of Gloucester sees the door to London open to him

Seeking to save their skins the leading Liberals ditch their Radical allies and make overtures to the Tories about forming a new government. With several Royal Navy ships going over to the rebels, and with the Thames effectively policied by these ships, the situation for the Radicals is increasingly dire.

King George VI, kept in seclusion at Saint James' Palace, is unaware of the gravity of the situation. Under Radical influence he issues a proclamation against the rebels he assumes to be a small and misguided force. The proclamation creates uproar in the city, and many of the populace go over to the rebel side. The Duke of Gloucester is welcomed like a hero as he enters from the South. Prince William makes a landmark speech in Trafalgar Square, citing his brother as mentally unfit to rule and that he has come as Regent to restore British honour and Britain's position across the globe

Marching from there to St James', the rebels have to fight their way past a die-hard Radical resistance. They find King George VI cowering in a closet, and easily induce him to abdicate in the face of overwhelming odds.

King William V declares an amnesty for Liberal members of the previous government, but institutes a harsh crackdown on the leading Radicals. He appoints a Tory administration under the Earl of Salisbury, and rules through a series of emergency decrees

The situation in Ireland proves impossible to reverse and by the end of 1880, the new government is forced to concede that the Home Rule Bill remain on the statute. The more extreme social reform legislation is rolled back, but again some of that remains law. And the situation in India proves impossible to rescue. The Duke of Cambridge is sent out to arrange the best settlement possible for British interests

Grey Wolf
 
India and China

These are both going to take some working out...

China
- The Taipings were dealt with mainly Imperial Chinese troops, with minimal British and French involvement as they were twice heavily involved in the Americas. During this time Russia is also pushing into Kashgaria, and later into Tibet. By the late 1870s it is probable that several Taiping successor states exist, and that central rule of China has splintered away. It is also probable that the Chinese Muslim lands have secceded, and that direct Imperial rule is restricted largely to the North of the empire.

Any thoughts ?

India
- The Indian Revolt has different roots from OTL's Indian Mutiny, being also a couple of decades later. The cause was the use of Indian Army units in Western America, and the heavy losses taken there, plus additional call-ups. It is unlikely that the OTL 1857 situation still existed by the ATL mid 1870s, but that reform has probably only been amongst the military. The East India Company remains in paramount position, and a Moghul emperor remains esconced in Delhi. The Doctrine of Lapse has seen the East India Company take over more lands directly where the male line died without heirs, and this has definitely embittered the native ruling classes. The Indian Revolt of the 1870s is thus a mixture of native uprising and secessionist movements. It never coalesces as a whole, but British errors and the lack of will in London result in an effective coalition of interests being able to all but drive the British out of India. The Duke of Cambridge, arriving in late 1880 has to try to work out a solution that will not see the complete eclipse of the British position within the sub-continent

Grey Wolf
 
I really like this thread, pity no one else does

179 viewings like it.

is thus a mixture of native uprising and secessionist movements. It never coalesces as a whole,

So India is going to spilter into the various princely states.



By the late 1870s it is probable that several Taiping successor states exist, and that central rule of China has splintered away. It is also probable that the Chinese Muslim lands have secceded, and that direct Imperial rule is restricted largely to the North of the empire.

And China So whe will have a totally different looking Asia Map.


If Britian is out of the Great Game, ?Can whe get a more militant US, as Russia's partner in the Game?.

Janina, as ever, plays both sides off against the other, entering into closer relations with Vienna but retaining its links with Russia.

?Where is Janina, again? ?Are whe getting a map any time soon?

I am not aware that the Philippines was historically in revolt in this period ? It seems to have had different antecedents, and one may think that the rise of Japan plays a more significant role in Filipino internal affairs

I was just thinking that if Spain is looking elewhere, some one may nip in the back door and.............

In contrast, the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies whilst it has numerous vessels on its books, has few modern ones and many which are little better than hulks. Whilst with effort it can put on a show (somewhat akin to OTL's Ottoman Empire) it has few ships of viable fighting potential.

With a Strong Austria [& Allies north of the- Papal States (what kind of alliances/Military do they have)] All the more reason for Sicily to look for allies. As Piedmont is smarting over Austria, they also would want allies. A Mini Entrente of Piedmont/Sciliy/Greece/ With maybe Russian Montenegro.

The recall of the Royal Navy and expeditionary force from Cuba lead to a renewed upswing in the Cuban rebellion. From victory in the civil war, King Juan III is now faced with dealing with a continuing and more desperate revolution in the Caribbean

I wasn't thinking of a immediate US return, but ?? years down the line after the Rebels win.
 
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What was the date of Kipling's suicide?

Getting Hamlin elected is going to be more difficult than getting Lincoln elected. His position about slavery is going to be more than not extending it to the territories.

As far as naval stuff the RN had looked at steel shot as an armor penetrator while the USN had that notion of wracking armor with a very heavy iron ball.
What little I know suggests the former was clearly superior and an US/GB war should likely demonstrate it to all.

Austria doing this well is going to have a great deal of influence on the RC Church--may even see an Austrian Pope.

You may see an ultraintellectual Northern Germany. Instead of of political unification you may see the emergence of Pan German cultural organizations. These would not be Catholic though--a mix of free thinking indifference to religion, some Liberal Protestantism and some Idealistic Pantheism.

Maybe more thoughts later.

Tom
 
You may see an ultraintellectual Northern Germany. Instead of of political unification you may see the emergence of Pan German cultural organizations. These would not be Catholic though--a mix of free thinking indifference to religion, some Liberal Protestantism and some Idealistic Pantheism.

In the 1890's you get the first stirring of the Modern [Asgardian] revivial*, Have it start a little eariler with more force [due to some disaster??]



*Thor ism is one of the fastest growing religions in the world.
 
Duqesne and Tom, thank you for your valuable comments

India is splintered but with substantial (in mass if not now percentage) British lands still remaining. The rest is the princely states, and some new ones where popular movements drove out the East India Company. The Duke of Cambridge negotiates a series of treaties which results in an Indian Commonwealth modelled on the German Confederation, with a customs union modelled on the Zollverein

I would certainly imagine the USA and Russia will be able to work in partnership, at least at first. The USA is getting involved in Japan and in China, and has established relations with the Taiping states, whilst Russia is now moving from Kashgaria into Eastern Mongolia, as well as tightening its hold on Tibet. At the moment their agendas are not antithetical to each other. Around this time gold is being discovered in the Klondike, so Alaska (Russia) is going to become suddenly more interesting to everyone. With Britain seen as a perpetual enemy of the USA (more or less), and viewed as a traditional enemy of Russia, the position of Alaska with British Columbia in the middle will bring a renewal of tensions about.

Janina is a sort of Greater Albania under a Muslim king, who secceded from the Ottoman Empire with the overthrow of the Osmanli. The realm includes Kosovo, Western Macedonia and all of Epirus, as well as modern Albania

The Piedmont/Two Sicilies/Greece/Montenegro option has a certain logic to it, I'll give it some thought as to what form it might take

Well, if Hamlin turns out to be impossible we could always have Lincoln himself fill the slot !

Both your views on German cultural revival sound feasible, but I'm not sure where they would go? What sort of effect would they have on...things ?

The start of the 1880s sees a weakened Britain under a Tory administration attempting to revive Britain's position around the world. The first aspect is the Indian peace, distasteful though it is, as well as deciding that they will have to live with Irish Home Rule. Finally laying both these crises to rest will free up their ability to act. King William V's marriage to Princess Charlotte, daughter of Friedrich Wilhelm V, lays the foundation for an Anglo-Prussian alliance.

King Louis Philippe II's France sees this as an especial threat

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Duqesne and Tom, thank you for your valuable comments

India is splintered but with substantial (in mass if not now percentage) British lands still remaining. The rest is the princely states, and some new ones where popular movements drove out the East India Company. The Duke of Cambridge negotiates a series of treaties which results in an Indian Commonwealth modelled on the German Confederation, with a customs union modelled on the Zollverein

Well, if Hamlin turns out to be impossible we could always have Lincoln himself fill the slot !

Both your views on German cultural revival sound feasible, but I'm not sure where they would go? What sort of effect would they have on...things ?

Grey Wolf

1] India modelled on Germany. Is this too much of an divergence from the White Man's Burden mentality prevalent at the time? The Indians are not Europeans.

2]I am not completely sure if Hamlin is impossible to elect, perhaps one or more of the ACW specialists of this Board can jump in. For one thing no Tejas means less hostile electoral votes.

3] My point about Germany is that no 1948 does not put North Germany into a stasis. In OTL the political forces IMO for unification were slightly ahead of the cultural but in this TL the politcal are lagging the cultural. The elite in North Germany will start thinking of themselves as Germans rather than part of their principaility incl. the Prussians.
 
Well, I don't suppose the Indian Commonwealth will actually FUNCTION like the German Confederation, but I think as an aim it is the best that the British can hope for - something like the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States. Basically, without something like this, Britain will lose not only its political and economic position but also its strategic position, and with Russia rampaging across Asia, Northern India is vulnerable. If you look at the German Confederation, it lacks a real centrifugal force - it can come together etc, but it doesn't usually achieve much. I would expect the Indian Commonwealth to reflect this - there will be some way of centralising diplomacy, at least among the more advanced and powerful states, but there won't be anything common, and I cannot envisage a diet. The Mughal Emperor in Delhi will also continue to have some vestigal powers

Grey Wolf
 
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