Peninsular war without the invasion of Russia

[Orko]

Assume that for whatever reason - whether Napoleon beats the Russian army early, or the Russians choose to adhere to the CS, or just Napoleon deciding a full-scale mobilization against Russia is not feasible - the 1812 invasion of Russia by the Grand Armee doesn’t happen, and France is free to focus on Spain.

1. Can Spain be pacified, or are we looking at potentially decades of guerilla warfare? Can king Joseph I rest easy eventually?

2. How hard would it be for the French to defeat the British-Spanish-Portuguese forces in conventional warfare? I’m assuming that France could eventually do it, although how long it would and what the cost and effects of it are (any impact on the war with Britain?) I don’t know.

3. The future of the colonies. Most of them had established juntas that rejected Joseph explicitly. Had the Bourbouns been thoroughly defeated, would they change their mind and back Napoleonic Spain anyway? Declare independence, in defiance of the new Spanish government? Or maybe a Brazil-like situation where the Borbouns rule from their colonies, still claiming the metropole?

4. the future of Portugal. Originally Napoleon planned to divide it into 3 client states. That’s probably not relevant anymore. What would be its fate instead ittl?

 

[Thoresby]

It depends on what happens in the East. A Russia that remains genuinely committed to enforcing the Continental System is a serious problem for Britain and might motivate them to make peace while if France accepts Russia ignoring the CS Britain would be much more likely to continue the fight. Defeating the Russian Army incidentally would not be sufficient for Napoleon to "win" in Russia which a. had other armies and b. simply wasn't vulnerable to French style coup de main. Still:

1. Spain can't be pacified quickly. You are looking at a long period of guerrilla war though France should be able to establish a Spanish government that will do most of the fighting (and dying) for them.

2. Free of other distractions France can deploy overwhelming numbers. Wellington isn't going to commit suicide and will fall back to Portugal if Napoleon leads a large enough Army into Spain. Napoleon won't be able to project a force big enough to dig Wellington out of Portugal until he's sorted his supply lines which will take time.

3. Britain controls access to them. The decision about whether to create independent Republics or go for a "Brazilian option" will be made in London.

4. Once France can project a large enough force into Portugal that Wellington has to evacuate either a Marshal or a junior Bonaparte gets a crown.