Pearl Harbor what if ?

After watching Tora, Tora, Tora . I was wondering If the American military found out about the attack and ready its forces at over the entire and peapred its own surpise on the Japanese forces.Like using the carriers to attack the naval force when the aircraft started their attack runs and/or the ground air crews were ready for with the base on full alert.

could it work or would it be more diastous to the Americans than the surpise attack
 
This reminds me of the Billy Mitchell story in Alternate Generals- the US forces managed to whup the Japanese, but the Pacific Theater ended up, politically, like Vietnam. The youth didn't want to fight the Japanese- We struck them first! They didn't do anything bad to us to deserve it! and all that, and so US interest in the Orient in general waned over time. After the war, the Communists easily came to power in Korea, Vietnam, and China, with no US attempts at intervention.
 
Must be more specific...

There are so many variants on this that it's important to know when the Hawaiian Islands get warned.
With a couple of hours notice, the best the Americans could do would be have full watertight integrity set, steam rising in the fleet, and all AA guns manned and ready, planes in the air.
In this situation, the radar system that tracked the attack in would have also given a sure fire warning as to when it's coming.
The Japanese pilots were shocked at the incredible volume of AA fire in the actual raid--with evrything manned and ready, it would have been even more shocking.
The American fighters weren't great, but there would have been a lot of them. Many empty berths in Kido Butai that night.
An American counter strike would also have been possible, due to the radar tracks on the outgoing flight. I don't feel optomistic about the results of the counter strike, but if it slowed the Japanese force down, and cut deep into the aircraft supply, the japanese could have to either abandon the cripples or face an avenging American battle fleet with two battlecruisers.
With more or less warning, the possibilities change enormously...
 
There are so many variants on this that it's important to know when the Hawaiian Islands get warned.


Let's try these two possibilities:


1) The image picked by radar is correctly valued as a large unknown and probably hostile air force


2) The sub sink near Hawaii by destroyer is quickly reported to the CINCPAC
 
The US was hopelessly unprepared, mentally, for the strike at Pearl Harbor.

A little known fact is that almost two full squadrons of Zeros arrived over Pearl Harbor and circled for almost twenty minutes until the actual attack began in broad daylight. If THAT wasn't enough to get alarms sounded, no radar return or sub report will do the trick.

However...

It all depends about time.

cid76, the radar contact would have offered less than an hour's warning, probably only minutes before the word trickled down and the alarms went off.

The sub contact...let us assume a direct hit, debris and dozens of dead Japanese floating to the surface. Now we can assume it would be as NHBL posited.
 

Kaptin Kurk

Banned
This reminds me of the Billy Mitchell story in Alternate Generals- the US forces managed to whup the Japanese, but the Pacific Theater ended up, politically, like Vietnam. The youth didn't want to fight the Japanese- We struck them first! They didn't do anything bad to us to deserve it! and all that, and so US interest in the Orient in general waned over time. After the war, the Communists easily came to power in Korea, Vietnam, and China, with no US attempts at intervention.
Hah, so does this leave the U.S. and W. Europe weaker or stronger at the end of this story? I'd bet it should be stronger, with China in economic and political (China breakup?) shambles like the USSR, but probably portrayed as weaker, eh?
 

Larrikin

Banned
Radar detection

There are so many variants on this that it's important to know when the Hawaiian Islands get warned.


Let's try these two possibilities:


1) The image picked by radar is correctly valued as a large unknown and probably hostile air force


2) The sub sink near Hawaii by destroyer is quickly reported to the CINCPAC

Having a phone or radio link from the radar station to Ops at Pearl would have been a big help. As it was the official method of notifying Ops was by despatch rider.
 

HueyLong

Banned
This reminds me of the Billy Mitchell story in Alternate Generals- the US forces managed to whup the Japanese, but the Pacific Theater ended up, politically, like Vietnam. The youth didn't want to fight the Japanese- We struck them first! They didn't do anything bad to us to deserve it! and all that, and so US interest in the Orient in general waned over time. After the war, the Communists easily came to power in Korea, Vietnam, and China, with no US attempts at intervention.

Sounds fairly unlikely- war was still fairly romanticized in the American mind, and the Yellow Peril was big in a lot of people's minds.

Not to mention that us "attacking first" is hard to do if they are sailing a battle fleet directly to our major pacific port of operations. Add in the evidence that tips us off on an attack, and you've got a good casus belli.

Maybe less civilian outrage, but certainly not a Vietnam
 

Hendryk

Banned
The sub contact...let us assume a direct hit, debris and dozens of dead Japanese floating to the surface. Now we can assume it would be as NHBL posited.
Saw a documentary about that sub a few days ago. Apparently it did suffer a direct hit from the US destroyer, and went right down. They found the wreck recently at the bottom of the bay, with a hole on the side of the fin. Perhaps if the hit had caused it to surface instead of sinking it outright, it would have caused more than the emission of a coded radio message that got lost on the way up the chain of command, and people would have known something was up. At the very least the alert level would have been moved up a notch, and the radar operators would have been more suspicious of those planes that showed up on their screens. Just an uneducated guess though, as I'm no expert on military history.
 
Saw a documentary about that sub a few days ago. Apparently it did suffer a direct hit from the US destroyer, and went right down. They found the wreck recently at the bottom of the bay, with a hole on the side of the fin. Perhaps if the hit had caused it to surface instead of sinking it outright, it would have caused more than the emission of a coded radio message that got lost on the way up the chain of command, and people would have known something was up. At the very least the alert level would have been moved up a notch, and the radar operators would have been more suspicious of those planes that showed up on their screens. Just an uneducated guess though, as I'm no expert on military history.
Given the number of spurious sub sightings in the days immediately prior, you'd have to have it surface under attack & have numerous eyewitnesses (preferably a pic or 2, too...) to swear it's nothing like USN has. Then you'd have to wake the DO:eek: (believe it or not, he was asleep...), & convince him to call up the chain & get Kimmel out of bed. Then Kimmel'd have to call Short, persuade him it's not a prank (or an unscheduled exercise, which they'd been having for a week or so, which also explains the phantom subs...), & get Short to sound GQ & AUS's top alert status (not just a sabotage alert...), which (unfortunately:mad:) means he has to violate his directive from DC not to alarm the public... By the time you've accomplished this, you maybe have a couple of hours to push the P-36s & P-40s into revetments, fly the PBYs, get AA guns & ammo ready, recall ships crews (from bars all over Honolulu...many in a state of falling-down drunkenness, indubitably), get WT doors shut (& some steam up for ship's power; hopefully, not enough to even consider an actual sortie:eek:).

Then, when word comes from Opana Point, Hawaiian AF scrambles a couple of dozen P-40s, which are slaughtered by Zekes whose pilots have got years of time in type, & combat experience, to boot. USN loses a couple of DDs in the harbor, a handful off the channel (with luck, none in it...), maybe a CC or 2 off Hospital Point. Japanese bombing is a little off as a result; a stray bomb hits the torpedo store.:cool::cool: (Christie & Fife KIA?:p Naw, that's ASB. The war's liable to be shorter, tho.) Kimmel sends word to Halsey they've detected an IJN TF to the NW. Halsey charges in; Enterprise is sunk along with 2 CCs & 4 DDs in her escort. (With any luck, the stupid SOB would drown, but that's asking for a lot... Killed by a stray bomb fragment?:cool:)

Next day, FDR calls it "a day which will live in infamy" (& doesn't get misquoted for the rest of time:p). Kimmel orders the relief of Wake Island. Wils Brown leads Lex & Sara into the Battle of the Philippine Sea, sinking Sōryū & Hiryū. (Nautilus is sunk by IJN DDs.) Japan surrenders in...hmm, July '44?
 
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