How might the war have gone differently had Japan not attempted their strike at Pearl Harbor until December 7, 1942? For all intents and purposes we can assume that they didn't take any direct military action against Britain or the Soviet Union until then, and so are effectively at peace with the Allies until then. How does the war in Europe go differently with an American involvement delayed by a year? Does America perhaps join anyway, and if not do they step up help to Britain in ways we didn't see in our time? And would Japan even have been capable of a strike from an economic view by this point?
No war with Britain or the Soviet Union means nothing's holding Japan back from war with the U.S. Keep in mind the Fleet Faction wanted war with the U.S. to justify its share of Japan's budget.
When they discussed the "Strike South" option, the IJN wanted to strike clockwise, starting with the Philippines, then the oil-rich Borneo region, then to Java, Sumatra, and Malaya. The Army wanted a counterclockwise option, hoping to gain Borneo before striking the Philippines. They still entertained hopes of a "strike north" against the Soviet Union, so they may have wanted to keep that option open until they actually reached the Philippines. The strategy chosen was a compromise, and then Yamamoto used his influence to steer Japan toward a Pearl option.
With better Axis victories in Europe, let's assume the Army gets its counterclockwise strike. They reach as far as Borneo, then try to take advantage of the Soviet's vulnerability by striking north. The Soviets clobbered the Kwantung Army in 1938, 1939, and 1945, and I'm guessing they would have done the same in '41, possibly with resulting earlier communist gains in Manchuria. The IJN would respond by blockading Vladivostok, which wouldn't sit well with the Lend-Lease oriented Roosevelt administration.
Which is perhaps just as well, because all the Pearl Harbor op did was wipe out a lot of old hardware - most of which could be salvaged anyway because it wasn't sunk at sea - and motivate the U.S. public to fight to the death.
Yamamoto has to think of another way to make a preemptive strike to neutralize the Americans at the outset.
Maybe trying to develop the I-400 submarines before attacking the U.S. OTOH there was still the oil-embargo. Also the I-400 had some problems, so it wasn't likely this could have affected the outcome of the war very differently.
Once Japan attacked the U.S. it was going down. The U.S. wasn't in a forgiving mood after Pearl, and would not have been after a "Philippines only" attack once the revelations of Bataan came out. The only way I see Japan getting away with that is if FDR decides to give up his chances in 1944 and makes a separate peace with Japan in order to concentrate on fighting Germany. FDR wasn't up to a fourth term anyway, but such an act would have so stained the Democratic party we could have seen the GOP win both the White House and have 2/3 of both the House and Senate--with the 1/3 being southern Democrats.