Pearl Harbor - even more effective?

Inspired by the Japan winning Midway thread.

What if the IJN succeeds beyond OTL at Pearl? In addition to devastating Battleship Row, the IJNAS also takes out the fuel bunkers in a third wave, though with large casualties.

Could the IJN have hit the Enterprise and the Lexington as well in this condition? Saratoga was in San Diego, about as untouchable as it got, but IIRC the Enterprise and Lexington were both between Hawaii and Wake, and Enterprise in particular was close enough to launch aircraft to Pearl.

Basically, a Pacific Fleet now operating without the stores at Pearl and with only one CV in action. How would that Pacific War play out?
 

Bearcat

Banned
What if the IJN succeeds beyond OTL at Pearl? In addition to devastating Battleship Row, the IJNAS also takes out the fuel bunkers in a third wave, though with large casualties.

Given that America will eventually replace the oil and storage tanks, and build new tankers, etc. - while the IJN will still utterly fail at producing replacement pilots anywhere near as good as those they are losing - this may actually end up being a net negative for the Japanese.

Japan's REAL "only hope" in this war was ASB... something like an asteroid taking out the eastern US. Anything less and they were dead, just on a very slightly different schedule.
 
Been there, done that. There have already been a couple of althist books on it, and some essays too.

The Pacific War would be a lot harder, and take longer, but the United States would win. Why, because we Americans don't know when to quit.
 
Oh, of course Japan still loses. That was never in doubt from the moment the first torpedo flew. What I meant is, how does Pacific theater play out? And could the IJN take out 2 of Pacific Fleet's 3 carriers? And if they did, how would THAT play out?
 
Oh, of course Japan still loses. That was never in doubt from the moment the first torpedo flew. What I meant is, how does Pacific theater play out? And could the IJN take out 2 of Pacific Fleet's 3 carriers? And if they did, how would THAT play out?

Looks like no Do Little raid, so perhaps no attempt to take Midway in June. With only one carrier, there's a decent change Port Moresby falls. Whether Japan invades Austrailia or not, I can't say. Given the amount of men the army has tied up in China, I'd say no.

A hypothetical plan would be marching through the Aluetians, and using Dutch Harbor as a base to launch carrier raids against the West Coast, in attempts to damage industry. No invasion of the mainland for same reason as Australia.

Beyond that, I could only say what I would do if I was the Japanese, but not many people are interested in my opinion.
 
Been there, done that.


The Kiat,

That's putting it mildly... :rolleyes:

There have already been a couple of althist books on it, and some essays too.

Plus seemingly quarterly threads here in which the same old questions are asked and the same old answers are given. No one ever seems to remember the last hundred or so discussion or bother to do a thread search before posting.

It's only thanks to this board's continual love affair with the aeolipile, that I know how CalBear feels about threads of this type. ;)

The Pacific War would be a lot harder, and take longer...

No. That bit has been repeatedly refuted and I'll post the link that has been repeatedly used to explain why: OP Please Read This

A bigger disaster at Pearl Harbor attack will have a greater effect on the war in Europe than the war in the Pacific. While FDR may not find it harder to maintain the "Germany First" policy, the resource division between the two theatres will not be as pronounced.


Bill
 
Thanks for the link, and sorry about the search. I'm used to Paradox forums, where no search exists, so...

That being said, the link doesn't help much. With a more devastating Pearl, Midway doesn't happen. Without Midway, the IJN remains a credible threat for a longer period of time. How does that affect Pacific Fleet operations?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Oh, of course Japan still loses. That was never in doubt from the moment the first torpedo flew. What I meant is, how does Pacific theater play out? And could the IJN take out 2 of Pacific Fleet's 3 carriers? And if they did, how would THAT play out?


No it can't get at the carriers, not both of them

Enterprise was in the greatest danger, had the weather been better she would have reached Pearl on December 6th. As was, when the strikes occurred she was roughly 200 miles West of Pearl, while the Japanese fleet was roughly 200 miles Northeast of Pearl, putting Halsey roughly 400 miles from the Japanese strike force.

Lexington was nearing Midway with a load of Vindicators for the Marine defenders so she was around 700 miles Northwest of Pearl or ~800 miles from Nagumo's strike force (which it needs to be mentioned, was very low on fuel).

To get either carrier would have been a miracle, to get both would have been near ASB.
 
Right, thanks, was wondering about that. I knew that elements of Enterprise's CAG got to Pearl, so Enterprise obviously could, theoretically, have been nabbed by the IJN. Lexington was more of an unknown for me.
 
Jaybird,

Same page, different article: Professionals Study Logistics, Amateurs Study Tactics

As I wrote earlier, a worse Pearl Harbor means more resources are diverted to the Pacific and, as the first page I linked you to showed, the US will have carriers even if two are lost on December 7th.

Somewhere along Japan's new imperial border a campaign of attrition will develop, Midway, the Solomons, New Guinea, it doesn't matter, and Japan cannot win such a campaign - or even provide it's fleet with fuel - over the long run.

Japan burned through much of it's stockpiles during the various strikes during the first 100 days of the war. The Kido Butai steamed hither and yon hitting targets as wide spread as Pearl, the Phillipines, the DEI, the Aleutians, and the Indian Ocean. Each nautical mile steamed used bunker fuel that couldn't be replaced fast enough. By as early as the summer of 1942, the IJN found itself greatly constrained in it's operations in the Solomons by fuel concerns alone.

The IJN heavies, battleships and carriers, simply could not steam at anywhere near the operational tempo their USN counterparts achieved. That reduced their deployments to either "counterpunching" or "maximum effort" style operations as in the battles of Santa Cruz and Philippine Sea respectively.


Bill
 
Japan actually began the war with insufficient merchant shipping capacity, particularly tankers. Particularly fleet oilers. Logistics haven't got a chapter in the Bushido Handbook. For the same reason, Japanese soldiers were sent places without supplies and told to grow rice. Without an early American surrender, Japan always loses. In Newt's version or Harry's.
 
A really bad Pearl Harbor might allow the Japanese to secure their intended perimeter and not reveal the "keyhole" problem at Midway after Doolittle's raid. They will very likely secure Port Moresby and try to take Midway, if they can do that then they will probably advertise a peace settlement with the US, recognize our conquests and there would be peace. I do not think the US would go for it but Australia and New Zealand might be convinced to leave the Pacific War, allowing the Japanese to free up some forces for use in Burma or China. If the alterations give Japan more time to secure China, or if the change of timeline convinces Japan to launch a major offensive into Russia just as Germany is leaving her on the line, there might be major alterations because of knocking Russia out of the war. I do not think the US would attempt a counteroffensive until they had at least replaced their carriers, so very late 1942 or early 1943. Should Australia be out of the picture I'm not sure where the supply lines or first target would be.
 

Markus

Banned
CalBear wrote:

Nothing about the impossibility of a third wave! :eek:

Is he ill? If not what comes next? Will he make positive remarks about the F2A? .... No, that´s beyond ASB! :D

....

Can´t find his post but the Japanese had not enough time to launch a third wave. The planes would have returned after dawn and even the IJA pilots were not qualified for night landings. Plus, the planes losses increased drastically with the 2nd wave even though no low flying torpedo bombers were included.

number of japanese planes: 414
planes shot down: 9 (1st wave), 20 (2nd wave)
planes damaged: 74

So assuming all damaged planes can not be repaired right away, Kido Butai´s strength had dropped by a quarter. Taking into consideration that Nagumo did not know that the three US carriers were not in a position to counterattack, staying would have been reckless (and pontless).
 
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