Pearl Harbor counterattack ?

Since most of the newer surface ships of the US Navy were deployed at sea at the time of the attack, the question i would like to pose is: Would the Navy risk those units in defending against a likely invasion/raid? If the IJN had managed to get enough ships (and troops, preferably marines) to land to cause at least enough damage to the supply, cargo, storage and repair facilities at and around Pearl. My estimate on the attack/raid would be approx. 5,000 marines landed at or near the main channel. They would have been assigned targets for demolition and they would probably be told that they are considered expendable. Also, how much damage would such an attack achieve? (The air attack would probably begin just after the landing)
 
Japan can't land a single man on Hawaii, they almost ran out of fuel just bringing along the Kido Butai, they do not have the tankers to bring along more ships
 
Japan can't land a single man on Hawaii, they almost ran out of fuel just bringing along the Kido Butai, they do not have the tankers to bring along more ships

And if Japan has no worries about fuel at all then they're not going to go for Plan South as it is anyway. And the butterflies required for that to be the case are pretty profound in terms of the overall war (and may include the unfortunate problem of Douglas MacArthur in the European theater).
 
How fast could Japanese land their troops on the island and organize their operation, given the resources to actually put anything on the island, which they do not have? I mean if it took them more time than what is necessary to organize a defense by units present in close vicinity, then it is probably no go.
 

Hyperion

Banned
Best bet they could have done would be sending a few dozen troops and a couple of their bigger submarines on a one way suicide mission.

Barring a radical POD at least a decade if not longer prior to December 7th, 1941, Japan simply didn't have the logistics to do even a small landing. They didn't have the fuel, they didn't have enough ordnance aboard the carriers to support ground troops in a protracted operation, and they had no shipping available to carry a landing force.

The only way they could have done something like that would have been to delay or cancel a landing elsewhere, be it in the Philippines, Malaya, the Dutch East Indies or elsewhere, and those territories where the main goals for Japan going to war to begin with.
 
shooter-8 said:
If the IJN had managed to get enough ships (and troops, preferably marines) to land to cause at least enough damage to the supply, cargo, storage and repair facilities at and around Pearl. My estimate on the attack/raid would be approx. 5,000 marines landed at or near the main channel. They would have been assigned targets for demolition and they would probably be told that they are considered expendable.
The fundamental flaw is, IJN never imagined anything more than an attack to sink the BBs. They thought the war would be short, so destroying facilities, let alone landing SNLF, was ASB as far as they were concerned.

That said, if USN counterattacks, what with? The BBs are sunk, & Kimmel has only 2 CVs against 6.:eek::eek: His aviators are drastically disadvantaged against IJN's, who all have combat experience. Think Midway, with Kimmel as Nagumo.:eek::eek:
Snake Featherston said:
may include the unfortunate problem of Douglas MacArthur in the European theater
I find that extremely unlikely. With no "Plan South", & thus little likelihood of Japan even attacking the U.S. at all, MacArthur would be put back on active duty & moved from "Siberia" over FDR's dead body.:eek:
Snake Featherston said:
butterflies required for that to be the case are pretty profound in terms of the overall war
A profound understatement.:eek: Fewer CVs, probably, but more transports & LCs, so good chance for Neptune going off in '43. Maybe earlier, with more VLRs in Coastal Command.:cool: War ending by Xmas '43, with the Sovs not even at their prewar borders? No use of the Bomb?:cool: (Leading to massive nuclear exchanges over Cuba?:eek::eek::eek::eek:) No Sov-occupied Eastern Europe?:cool::cool: No Korean War.:cool: No Vietnam War.:cool: (No "MASH".:eek: No "Trapper John, MD".:eek: No "Magnum, PI"?:eek: No "Tour of Duty".:eek: Oliver Stone never becomes famous.:cool: No "JFK".:cool::cool:)
 
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To be fair; it seems Shooter's describing a raid, not an invasion.
And they can't even do that, they probably would have abandon 9 ships if they so much as lingered a bit longer for launching a third wave, closing the extra 100+ miles both ways to the island would use up all the fuel they brought for at least 9 vessels, maybe more, this assumes no extra vessels to use up more fuel

Well they could use subs to land a handful of frogmen but that is about it
 
I believe, that the best option for the IJN would be a combined air raisvas innOTL, combined with a block ship at the channel and a naval bombardment of Pearl Harbor by battleships. I recall such an ATL on this site a while ago.
 
I believe, that the best option for the IJN would be a combined air raisvas innOTL, combined with a block ship at the channel and a naval bombardment of Pearl Harbor by battleships. I recall such an ATL on this site a while ago.
They don't have the fuel to bring the Battlewagons all the way to Pearl, they only had 2 with the Kido Butai, they can't even try to bring all of them that far, nor even most, in fact they almost had to abandon 9 ships to fuel loss OTL, a few hundred extra miles will make that worse and adding more battleships will make that even worse

If Japan has the logistic ability to do this then it has no reason to
 
They don't have the fuel to bring the Battlewagons all the way to Pearl, they only had 2 with the Kido Butai, they can't even try to bring all of them that far, nor even most, in fact they almost had to abandon 9 ships to fuel loss OTL, a few hundred extra miles will make that worse and adding more battleships will make that even worse

If Japan has the logistic ability to do this then it has no reason to

They will surely have to rearrange the entirebinvasion plans of S, East Asia, pulling battleships from there and sending more tankers to support the Pearl attack.
The way you replied, you make it sound, like the IJN did not have any fuel at all after the Pearl harbor attack and S.East Asia landings were completed. This is not true. Redesign the whole operation, go for less in the furst S. East Asia wave andbit can be done. Fuel is not the main issue. Keeping the battleships undetected and getting eithin striking distance of Pearl harbor is.
 
They will surely have to rearrange the entirebinvasion plans of S, East Asia, pulling battleships from there and sending more tankers to support the Pearl attack.
The way you replied, you make it sound, like the IJN did not have any fuel at all after the Pearl harbor attack and S.East Asia landings were completed. This is not true. Redesign the whole operation, go for less in the furst S. East Asia wave andbit can be done. Fuel is not the main issue. Keeping the battleships undetected and getting eithin striking distance of Pearl harbor is.

Fuel available in tankers is the key issue you are missing. Not enough tankers= not enough fuel.
 
Fuel available in tankers is the key issue you are missing. Not enough tankers= not enough fuel.
1. Did the Japanese not have any tankers detached to the S. East Asia landings in December 1941? Can't you simply send those tankers with the Kido Butai and battleships to Pearl Harbor?
2. Provided the plan to send the IJN battleship line to Pearl harbor is conceived at the same time the OTL aur strike was worked out, can't the Japanese build tankers or convert existing ships to tankers?

I am nozt suggesting an invasion of Hawaii, I am just suggesting getting 4-6 IJN battleships off Pearl harbor and shelling the installations together with the second air attack wave. It's risky and difficult,but if it works (even with losses to the IJN) it may provide interesting butterflies.
 

sharlin

Banned
You've also got to get the troops and the troop transports off the Army, and do this with their full support, which never seemed to happen as the IJA and IJN seemed to loathe each other and hated giving away 'their' resources.
 
MUC, fuel was such an issue that some of the IJN destroyers had to be carry drums of fuel so that they would have a reasonable prospect of getting home.


Japan's ship building capacity leaves no chance of building new oil tankers between the decision to attack Pearl Harbor and the actual strike while I am unaware that the IJN had a capacity to refuel at sea.
 
1. Did the Japanese not have any tankers detached to the S. East Asia landings in December 1941? Can't you simply send those tankers with the Kido Butai and battleships to Pearl Harbor?
2. Provided the plan to send the IJN battleship line to Pearl harbor is conceived at the same time the OTL aur strike was worked out, can't the Japanese build tankers or convert existing ships to tankers?

I am nozt suggesting an invasion of Hawaii, I am just suggesting getting 4-6 IJN battleships off Pearl harbor and shelling the installations together with the second air attack wave. It's risky and difficult,but if it works (even with losses to the IJN) it may provide interesting butterflies.
Japan does not have enough tankers, nor enough time to build/convert more, planning started March/April, but Japan did not know they would actually be attacking until November and there was no reason for them to attack until July when the oil embargo started

You possibly could build tankers in the March-November period, barely and they would not be worked up, but at that point they would not know that the attack was coming for sure and Japan was 3 million tons short of Merchant shipping before the war and would not want to waste scarce construction for an attack that may never be launched and July when they are sure is too late

Also diverting effort from South East Asia would be counter to Japanese plans, which called for a short war and getting everything as quick as possible, they needed the DEI for oil as quick as possible
 

CalBear

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MUC, fuel was such an issue that some of the IJN destroyers had to be carry drums of fuel so that they would have a reasonable prospect of getting home.


Japan's ship building capacity leaves no chance of building new oil tankers between the decision to attack Pearl Harbor and the actual strike while I am unaware that the IJN had a capacity to refuel at sea.


Not just the destroyers. The carriers had up to 100 drums of oil as deck loaded cargo and several ships had fuel oil loaded into their bilges.
 
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