Pearl Harbor: At Night

Sir

Banned
I want to discuss the plausibility of the IJN using a night attack on Pearl Harbor. The Japanese had good night time surface doctrine and an excellent carrier aviation branch. It was already shown to be technically possible by Taranto. It probably can't make Pearl Harbor a success anymore than it already was, but the effects of Japanese carriers being capable of night operations makes for some interesting possibilities in battles like the Coral Sea and Midway.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
At least what the weather was like at dawn: "clouds mostly over the mountains. Visibility good".
 

Sir

Banned
Dumb question to ask, but I'll chance it: moonlit night or not?

Whichever is most plausible. I'd assume that the timetable for Pearl Harbor could be modified by a couple days/weeks to make the moon favorable if the Japanese are committed to making it a night attack.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
Oh wait, I just figured it out: It was a waning moon that day. Consider the following:

[At 0342], a ghostly plume appeared 50 yards off the port bow of Condor. A stick-like periscope was silhouetted against the waning moon, moving at cross-purposes with the other waves...Helmsman R.B. Chavez could only see the glimmering wake, not the periscope. It was headed right at them. Chavez turned Condor to starboard, and at the same moment the sub turned to port, heading for the harbor. This was suspicious enough behavior, believed Condor skipper Ensign Monroe Harmon Hubbell. Identification wasn't positive enough, however, to report it to other than the Senior Officer Present Afloat – Lieutenant William Outerbridge, [Commanding Officer of the USS] Ward. At [0357], Condor used her yardarm blinker to report "Sighted submerged submarine on westerly course. Speed nine knots."

- Burl Burlingame, Advance Force Pearl Harbor, pg. 159


A week later might get the attack at a new moon, but we would need to know the sea/weather conditions.
 
Why bother with this?

OTL the Japanese were able to achieve complete surprise in broad daylight to the point that some IJN aircraft arrived early and spent @20 minutes circling Pearl Harbor in clear view without any alarms being sounded.
 

Sir

Banned
Why bother with this?

OTL the Japanese were able to achieve complete surprise in broad daylight to the point that some IJN aircraft arrived early and spent @20 minutes circling Pearl Harbor in clear view without any alarms being sounded.

The Japanese certainly didn't know that it would go so perfectly. Besides, a night attack on Pearl Harbor might come about because they develop night capabilities for reasons independent of the Pearl Harbor strike.
 
If anything I'd expect them to be less successful if they attacked at night. They'd probably lose fewer planes, but they would also hit fewer targets as well.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Anything they hit at night with a bomb would be luck. The American ships were mostly double moored so only the outboard were vulnerable to torpedo strikes. This almost certainly leave the U.S. with four more or less fully functional BB, most of the cruisers, and probably 100 or so undamaged aircraft. Much better outcome for the fleet.

The Japanese used around 175 aircraft per wave at Pearl. The British used a total of 21, only 11 of them actually attacking the anchorage at any one time(and they lost two aircraft or 10%). Imagine how many mid-airs the Japanese would have in this sort of attack in the restricted airspace in the dark, not to mention ramp strikes and write-offs from hard landings (as was, the Kido Butai lost as many airframes in landing post attack as they did in the battle, now do it at night without any lights).

No gain, huge down side.
 
Add into that that the Americans will know they're coming, and will pour flak into the formations before they even reach land, thus breaking the formations up early.
 
Oh wait, I just figured it out: It was a waning moon that day. Consider the following:




A week later might get the attack at a new moon, but we would need to know the sea/weather conditions.

Its a was a near full moon On December 7th 1941(full moon on the 3rd). On December 18th 1941 it was a new moon.
 
CalBear

Good point about the problems the Japanese would have in a night attack in terms of higher losses from accidents. Also it would make very very difficult/impossible attacks on other targets, such as the oil farm and the airfields. Although the latter may not be that significant in this scenario.

There are a couple of possibly big down sides for the Americans and allies in this.
a) Since it will produce only limited damage and be clearly seen as a copy of Taranto it will strengthen the feeling of racial superiority and underestimation of the Japanese, which might make for some nasty problems in the following months. Also the US won't get a lesson in terms of the capabilities of the Zero.

b) This could combine with the fact that the US will still have at least 4 old BBs and hence the navy might still think of the battle-line as the main weapon. You could see a lot of ships going down in deep water, with much heavier losses.

Won't change the outcome of the war but there are often dangers of unexpected consequences.;)

Steve

Anything they hit at night with a bomb would be luck. The American ships were mostly double moored so only the outboard were vulnerable to torpedo strikes. This almost certainly leave the U.S. with four more or less fully functional BB, most of the cruisers, and probably 100 or so undamaged aircraft. Much better outcome for the fleet.

The Japanese used around 175 aircraft per wave at Pearl. The British used a total of 21, only 11 of them actually attacking the anchorage at any one time(and they lost two aircraft or 10%). Imagine how many mid-airs the Japanese would have in this sort of attack in the restricted airspace in the dark, not to mention ramp strikes and write-offs from hard landings (as was, the Kido Butai lost as many airframes in landing post attack as they did in the battle, now do it at night without any lights).

No gain, huge down side.
 
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