Peacful Ottoman breakup?

With any pod between 1820 and 1920, how can we get a peaceful, Czechoslovakia style breakup of the Ottoman empire? Like, the breakup into an Arab, Turkish, and maybe Kurdish state? Some rules though:

1. It must be mutually agreed by parties in the ottoman empire, no forced breakup by outside powers.

2. The resulting countries all have to be ruled by native governments, this means no colonies or protectorates of Europe.

For a real analogy, make it somewhere between Czechoslavkia and the USSR breakups in terms of vioence.
 
Czechoslovakia is a bad analogy to compare the Ottomans to. It's in the name. Only two ethnic groups mattered. Compare this to the Ottoman Empire, which had dozens of ethnic/regional identities in it, depending on who you want to count.

The breakup of the USSR works better but it would require the Ottomans to divide the Empire up into ethnic groups beforehand. And when they did that in OTL, we had the Balkan Wars break out. It wasn't the Ottoman MO to govern everybody the same. Places got treated differently depending on the local circumstances.
 
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With any pod between 1820 and 1920, how can we get a peaceful, Czechoslovakia style breakup of the Ottoman empire? Like, the breakup into an Arab, Turkish, and maybe Kurdish state? Some rules though:

1. It must be mutually agreed by parties in the ottoman empire, no forced breakup by outside powers.

2. The resulting countries all have to be ruled by native governments, this means no colonies or protectorates of Europe.

For a real analogy, make it somewhere between Czechoslavkia and the USSR breakups in terms of vioence.

What kind of borders do you want? 1820? 1876? 1908? 1914?
 
Czechoslovakia is a bad analogy to compare the Ottomans to. It's in the name. Only two ethnic groups mattered. Compare this to the Ottoman Empire, which hand dozens of ethnic/regional identities in it, depending on who you want to count.

The breakup of the USSR works better but it would require the Ottomans to divide the Empire into ethnic groups beforehand. And when that did that in OTL, we had the Balkan Wars break out. It wasn't the Ottoman MO to govern everybody the same. Places got treated differently depending on the local circumstances.
Could it happen after 1900? Like, maybe the Ottomans give the Arabs independence in return for keeping British influence out of the middle east?
 
Maybe a cp victory where the Ottoman barely come out alive but then decide its in everyone's interests to part ways?

Many people will disagree to that notion based on local circumstances. Ask any Arab who would end up in a Kurdistan or Kurd who would end up in a Mesopotsmia* and you'd be quite likely to hear them say it's not in THEIR interest, and it's not in the leaders of those hypothetical ethnostate's interests to leave any viable territorial claim uncontested in this moment of maximum oppritunity.
 
Many people will disagree to that notion based on local circumstances. Ask any Arab who would end up in a Kurdistan or Kurd who would end up in a Mesopotsmia* and you'd be quite likely to hear them say it's not in THEIR interest, and it's not in the leaders of those hypothetical ethnostate's interests to leave any viable territorial claim uncontested in this moment of maximum oppritunity.
Well, there could always be population transfers. They where not nice, but not out of character for the time. And even as recently as the 90s, many ethnic Russians fled the new countries back to Russia
 
Well, there could always be population transfers. They where not nice, but not out of character for the time. And even as recently as the 90s, many ethnic Russians fled the new countries back to Russia

The majority of said Russians weren't part of a mixed population who had dwelled in and wandered those lands for centuries on end, and the member Soviet Republicans had agreed upon borders and pre-existing autonimous political structures. These situations are hardly equivilent
 
The majority of said Russians weren't part of a mixed population who had dwelled in and wandered those lands for centuries on end, and the member Soviet Republicans had agreed upon borders and pre-existing autonimous political structures. These situations are hardly equivilent
Well, this brings me a question. How clearly demarcated where Turks geographically from other ethnicities?
 
Well, this brings me a question. How clearly demarcated where Turks geographically from other ethnicities?


From Arabs, reasonably clearly. From other groups - Greeks, Armenians and Kurds - it's much harder, if not downright impossible.

The problem with the Arabs is is that then as now they were divided into any number of tribes and sects. Many will object to being ruled by the "wrong" group of Arabs just as much as to being ruled by Turks.
 
From Arabs, reasonably clearly. From other groups - Greeks, Armenians and Kurds - it's much harder, if not downright impossible.

The problem with the Arabs is is that then as now they were divided into any number of tribes and sects. Many will object to being ruled by the "wrong" group of Arabs just as much as to being ruled by Turks.

Many would even prefer to be ruled by the distant, and thus lighter and more likely to deligate, hand of the Turk than the neighbor who can oppress you just by crossing the road and you know has a personal beef with you.
 
The problem with the Arabs is is that then as now they were divided into any number of tribes and sects. Many will object to being ruled by the "wrong" group of Arabs just as much as to being ruled by Turks.
This would depend on how succesful Arab nationalism is, and if it can manage to overcome tribal identity
 
Again, if you could say what year you want the Ottoman Empire to break up could help to explain... I pointed out four years:
- With the borders of 1820 (Greece and Serbia remains Ottoman)
- With the borders of 1876 (No Serbia or Greece)
- With the borders of 1908 (Turkey + Rumelia and Albania + Middle East)
- With the borders of 1914 (Todays Turkey + Middle East)

Each borders can have different ways
 
Again, if you could say what year you want the Ottoman Empire to break up could help to explain... I pointed out four years:
- With the borders of 1820 (Greece and Serbia remains Ottoman)
- With the borders of 1876 (No Serbia or Greece)
- With the borders of 1908 (Turkey + Rumelia and Albania + Middle East)
- With the borders of 1914 (Todays Turkey + Middle East)

Each borders can have different ways
I'm more leaning towards post 1900, but I wanted to give a wide pod range to alow wiggle room as this is a difficult scenerio
 
I'm more leaning towards post 1900, but I wanted to give a wide pod range to alow wiggle room as this is a difficult scenerio

Post-1900 will look more likely a Yugoslavia break up. It will be most likely about Northern Syria and Northern Iraq between Turks and Arabs. Eastern Anatolia maybe and that is pretty much a hopeless situation for them, forming barely a fifth of Eastern Anatolia. But all before this to happen, the Ottomans need to devolve in a Federal State over decades.

This is assuming it is with 1914 borders. With 1912 borders, it might be a conflict zone in Macedonia but that's pretty much it. Albania would break apart pretty easy but will get involved in Macedonia.
 
Regardless of which borders it has when it breaks up, I don't see it being peaceful.

Not entirely. But assuming it has the 1820s borders.

This would mean the Balkans largely. The possibility of conflicts would be in Bosnia, Bulgaria, Macedonia at least. But this also requires a Federalized State which the Greeks and Egyptians can break apart. The Serbs in Bosnia, the Greeks and Bulgarians in Macedonia, the Bulgarians, Turks and Circassians in Bulgaria will most definitely face each other as they are equal in numbers in the region. Other regions such as Egypt will face no real conflict as there is a vast majority religion and ethnicity. The Levant, Mesopotamia and Anatolia pretty much the same but Anatolia with decent numbers of Greeks and Armenians and again, I hardly seem them as a problem for the authorities as they are not in a situation to break apart. Only the area around Mosul-Kirkuk and Aleppo-Antioch may become a zone of conflict between Turks-Arabs and Kurds. But that is pretty much it.

So the inevitable conflict zones are...

Bosnia: Bosniaks and Croats vs Serbs

Macedonia: Bulgarians vs Greeks vs Albanians vs Turks and Jews (the latter group is pretty much hopeless without help from Istanbul)

Bulgaria and Thrace: Bulgarians vs Turks, Tatars and Circassians

Crete and Cyprus: Greeks vs Turks


The possible conflict zones but with less, short or no warfare:

Northern Iraq: Arabs and Assyrians vs Kurds vs Turks

Northern Syria: Arabs vs Kurds vs Syrians

Eastern Anatolia: Armenians vs Turks and Kurds


No War zones:
- Albania
- Central Greece and Morea
- Serbia
- Dobruja
- Anatolia
- Levant
- Mesopotamia
- Egypt
- Arabian Peninsula
- North Africa (with or without Algeria and Tunis)

So basically the edges of the Balkans. Assuming when it happens it will also affect the regions as we did not mention migrations of Christians to the Americas and high Muslim mortality rates in wars. Which could butterfly away conflicts in Anatolia with Armenians and Greeks. I'd say, the break up only happens as a federal state and if the State is somehow as a dictatorship (communist, absolute monarchy etc) Mid to late 20th century?

A Soviet style break up...
 
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