Regardless of which borders it has when it breaks up, I don't see it being peaceful.
Not entirely. But assuming it has the 1820s borders.
This would mean the Balkans largely. The possibility of conflicts would be in Bosnia, Bulgaria, Macedonia at least. But this also requires a Federalized State which the Greeks and Egyptians can break apart. The Serbs in Bosnia, the Greeks and Bulgarians in Macedonia, the Bulgarians, Turks and Circassians in Bulgaria will most definitely face each other as they are equal in numbers in the region. Other regions such as Egypt will face no real conflict as there is a vast majority religion and ethnicity. The Levant, Mesopotamia and Anatolia pretty much the same but Anatolia with decent numbers of Greeks and Armenians and again, I hardly seem them as a problem for the authorities as they are not in a situation to break apart. Only the area around Mosul-Kirkuk and Aleppo-Antioch may become a zone of conflict between Turks-Arabs and Kurds. But that is pretty much it.
So the inevitable conflict zones are...
Bosnia: Bosniaks and Croats vs Serbs
Macedonia: Bulgarians vs Greeks vs Albanians vs Turks and Jews (the latter group is pretty much hopeless without help from Istanbul)
Bulgaria and Thrace: Bulgarians vs Turks, Tatars and Circassians
Crete and Cyprus: Greeks vs Turks
The possible conflict zones but with less, short or no warfare:
Northern Iraq: Arabs and Assyrians vs Kurds vs Turks
Northern Syria: Arabs vs Kurds vs Syrians
Eastern Anatolia: Armenians vs Turks and Kurds
No War zones:
- Albania
- Central Greece and Morea
- Serbia
- Dobruja
- Anatolia
- Levant
- Mesopotamia
- Egypt
- Arabian Peninsula
- North Africa (with or without Algeria and Tunis)
So basically the edges of the Balkans. Assuming when it happens it will also affect the regions as we did not mention migrations of Christians to the Americas and high Muslim mortality rates in wars. Which could butterfly away conflicts in Anatolia with Armenians and Greeks. I'd say, the break up only happens as a federal state and if the State is somehow as a dictatorship (communist, absolute monarchy etc) Mid to late 20th century?
A Soviet style break up...