Peaceful Yugoslavian Break up
- Thread starter Luath
- Start date
The truth is know one really knows and the whole subject a fertile ground for post-graduate dissertations.
Hornla said:
The Krajina serb population is descended from three sources. The Vlach pastoral nomads that started to settle those parts from 14th century onwards, the various orthodox christian (mostly from medieval Serbia) refugees fleeing the Ottomans in 15th and 16th century and JNA retirees during the communist Yugoslavia (but these only were a small fraction and by the time they settled these parts already had the Serb national identity in the modern sense). The problem comes from the fact that prior to 1945 many towns in what will be known as Krajina in the '90 had a Croat majority or plurality but the surounding villages were dominantly Serbian. With the industrialisation of the '50 and '60, rural populations entered towns and changed the composition while the villages remained with the same composition just with a reduced number of people. Quite a similar picture can be seen in BiH as well.
The Serbs in Croatia had the misfortune to have their population core in an area that was the centre of medieval Croatian kingdom until the time of Ottoman conquests and was depopulated as the result of the same leaving space for new settlers. Their other problem was that same area is known as Key to Dalmatia and is juncture for communication and trade as well as being a really strong strategic spot that would allow anyone who holds it to hold the rest of northern and central Dalmatia hostage.
So Croatia is not in a position to negotiate that area unlike Serbia that is not vitally threatened by a loss to a portion of Kosovo though both are very similar cases (if not identical). In other words Croatia will not let Krajina go unless militarily defeated, just like Serbia was in '99.
Dementor said:
This a 100 times. I still remember when I was a little kid there was an really old lady in Perast (Montnegro) that considered all those that spoke any form of south slavic as their primary tounge as invaders.
So, I have attached my proposal for a "before it is too late"-separation of Croatia and Serbia (no need to discuss the Slovene border) based on the 1981-census.
I think that these would be viable borders for Croatia. I admit that the solution is not 100% fair, but the Croat resp. Serb minorities are so small that they would stand no chance as troublemakers. Same goes for the (someone gets screwed over) Bosniaks/Muslims who cannot dare to face the Serbs alone.
Without the eruption of violence, all these states should be able to follow respectable policies concerning minorities (as they would probably all soon apply for EU-membership, this would be under watchful eyes anyways).
If at all, the scenario would only work under four POD-factors:
-Serb leadership earlier adopts a policy of letting the North go in order to create Yugoslavia 3.0 as a Greater Serbia
-International interest and pressure result in arbitration concerning the border-negotiations. Croatia is told that the green line is "the first, last and only chance for internationally accepted secession"
- This stance is ITTL not undermined by a German tendency to recognice Croatia anyways.
- The whole development to actually dissolve Yugoslavia starts earlier, perhaps by 1988/89.
I think that these would be viable borders for Croatia. I admit that the solution is not 100% fair, but the Croat resp. Serb minorities are so small that they would stand no chance as troublemakers. Same goes for the (someone gets screwed over) Bosniaks/Muslims who cannot dare to face the Serbs alone.
Without the eruption of violence, all these states should be able to follow respectable policies concerning minorities (as they would probably all soon apply for EU-membership, this would be under watchful eyes anyways).
If at all, the scenario would only work under four POD-factors:
-Serb leadership earlier adopts a policy of letting the North go in order to create Yugoslavia 3.0 as a Greater Serbia
-International interest and pressure result in arbitration concerning the border-negotiations. Croatia is told that the green line is "the first, last and only chance for internationally accepted secession"
- This stance is ITTL not undermined by a German tendency to recognice Croatia anyways.
- The whole development to actually dissolve Yugoslavia starts earlier, perhaps by 1988/89.
Thanks for the clarification. I only knew about the role of the Serb population there during the time of the Habsburg "Militärgrenze".
The game about "who came first" looks familiar. That disease is not restricted to the Balkans either. *cough* Palestine *cough* It also used to be played between the Germans and the Czechs resp. Polish.
abc123
Banned
And if Milošević was smart, he could pull this without any problem...
But, he was too greedy.
And if Milošević was smart, he could pull this without any problem...
But, he was too greedy.
I absolutely agree.
Could also have gotten a nobel peace price for solving the Crisis.
Unfortunatelly those borders are unacceptable from a strategic point of view since that would rob Croatia of any tactical depth (which is allready quite shallow) and especially Dalmatian hinterlands. The second problem is that in the areas where Serbs are a majority in Croatia there is still a very significant Croatian population. The war in Croatia was not only fought because we were attacked but also because we were unwilling to accept the loss of territory inhabitated by our people. What you show is almost the situation of ceasfire in late December 1991 after most of the fighting was done. No one would be willing to sign such a deal without being militarily defeated.
The problem in BiH for your solution is that people often mistake areas with the highest percentage of one ethnicity with the areas of their greatest quantity. In 1991 there was roughly 3/4 of a million Croats in BiH, the areas you added to Croatia included roughly 200 000. Also the Bosniaks will not be staying in Yugoslavia if Slovenes and Croats go since they that means total Serb dominance they are not willing to accept.
I don't have time now, but once I get back home I will try and give a longer reasoning why Croatia can not accept any concesions to Serbs outside Eastern Slavonia even if it means getting western Herzegovina.
The problem in BiH for your solution is that people often mistake areas with the highest percentage of one ethnicity with the areas of their greatest quantity. In 1991 there was roughly 3/4 of a million Croats in BiH, the areas you added to Croatia included roughly 200 000. Also the Bosniaks will not be staying in Yugoslavia if Slovenes and Croats go since they that means total Serb dominance they are not willing to accept.
I don't have time now, but once I get back home I will try and give a longer reasoning why Croatia can not accept any concesions to Serbs outside Eastern Slavonia even if it means getting western Herzegovina.
I too am dubious about the Bosniacs lightly submitting to rule by a Greater Serbia. If the international community had offered to the Bosniacs incorporation into Croatia, their area of greatest concentration (i know, problematic)as an autonomous region(s) Or as an official minority with representation--- any chance in hell? I'm suggesting Croatia as they seemed OTL a little more amenable to outside mediation than the Serbs.
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abc123
Banned
Nobody here disputes that, we have allready said that.
About Bosniaks, in case of Croat-Serb deal, they would be powerless to do anything, since they lacked the weapons and corridor to buy/get weapons.
Bosnia would fall as silent as whisper again. ( I'm not sure it that good translation )
Angel Heart
Banned
And what would be the reason the international community would accept Bosnia being carved up between Serbia and Croatia? The AVNOJ borders were fanatically treated by the UN as if they were drawn by God himself instead of an eccentric comunist dictator.
I feel a lot of people posting on this thread who don't originate from ex-Yugoslavia seriously underestimate the level of ethnic tension and mistrust caused by a long history of warfare and mutual slaughter. And this mistrust was very effectively played on by the politicians from all sides, meaning that it was going to be very difficult to convince Serbs to live in a Croat state, or Bosniaks and Croats to live in a Serb state. It's easy to draw the borders on a map, but that doesn't translate too well into the reality on the ground.
The other reality is that the Serb leadership, especially in the period of 1990/1991, had virtually all the cards up their sleeves - politically, and most importantly, militarily - and very little incentive to negotiate a 'just' break-up when they could foresee (wrongly, as it would turn out) achieving their maximalist objectives without too many problems. And like others have said, Croats and Bosniaks weren't going to just cave in to all this without a fight.
The other reality is that the Serb leadership, especially in the period of 1990/1991, had virtually all the cards up their sleeves - politically, and most importantly, militarily - and very little incentive to negotiate a 'just' break-up when they could foresee (wrongly, as it would turn out) achieving their maximalist objectives without too many problems. And like others have said, Croats and Bosniaks weren't going to just cave in to all this without a fight.
@Marko
Thank you! I was aware that drawing borders like that wasn't Perfect. However- I was Not aware how Large the resulting numerical Error is.
@grapadura
Your Position is valid, but I understand that your Point means that you exclude the possibility of a peaceful breakup. OTL borders don't work; revised borders don't work, ethnic cleansing without war is ASB.
Concerning tactical depth; actually there is None anyways. The only depth which can (and could) Be attained, is international recognition.
Thank you! I was aware that drawing borders like that wasn't Perfect. However- I was Not aware how Large the resulting numerical Error is.
@grapadura
Your Position is valid, but I understand that your Point means that you exclude the possibility of a peaceful breakup. OTL borders don't work; revised borders don't work, ethnic cleansing without war is ASB.
Concerning tactical depth; actually there is None anyways. The only depth which can (and could) Be attained, is international recognition.
Not exactly true, is it? Those borders can pretty much be seen from XVIII century onwards. Borders themselves evolved after a series of internationally recognized agreements starting with the Treaty of Karlowitz.
Wikipedia article said:
BTW AVNOJ was treated by everyone as a legitimate expression of the will of the people. It was a Parliament, after a fashion. Highly imperfect one, but the borders were confirmed later on.
BTW a call to 'historical borders' that was heard in all parts of Yugoslavia prior to the break up usually had the maximum extent of the respective countries, usually held for a few years and after some dynastic deals (marriages, inheritance or after fealties by the smaller feudal lords bowing to stronger monarch) not a real historic borders those countries held for a prolonged time, proving that those are their real cores.
The trouble of Yugoslavia is that it was divided not only by nationality, but also religious lines. The combination of the two proved especially fatal in Bosnia. The fact is that, with a little goodwill by all involved a peaceful solution could have been found. Goodwill was lacking and hatred bred more hatred and it all got locked into a vicious circle.
Angel Heart
Banned
I wasn't only referring to Bosnia but also to Vojvodina, Kosovo and Macedonia. And while the borders between BiH and Croatia as we know may heve existed long before Tito, it doesn't chance the fact that it complicated everything. :/ As the most blatant example for the impracticality of the AVNOJ borders you have the current crisis in Kosovo. This is why I think that altering some borders would have stabilized the situation in the long run.
Serbs in Croatia were ready to accept the Z-4 plan even before Operation Storm. Maybe they felt their defeat was imminent, I'm not sure. If they find that Belgrade doesn't have their back they'd be willing to compromise ITTL too.
Hurray for hindsight!
Croats are key. Croats are the smallest of the 3 Bosnian ethnicities but combined with any other ethnicity they make up more than 50% of the population.
IOTL they aligned with the Muslims in voting for independence from YU.
ITTL they could align with the Serbs in voting for the dissolution of the Republic of BiH.
Regardless of how iffy that legal move would be,this would weaken the international determination to defend the existence of a state where the majority of its population votes for its dissolution and only 40+% boycott the referendum.