NoMommsen
Donor
Well back to square one ...Yes & probably some barges could be sunk by bombs landing up to 50 metres away or more. Though i think in the context of earlier posts. destroyers would be the 'heavier vessels', heavier than the light craft at Dover etc.
However, that's the 'full on invasion/USM scenario'. in the 'Raid followed by quick evacuation' option we ought to be talking about E-boats. Which are a bit sturdier sea boats, just inadequate to carry all the (surviving) raiders back. Could fight or run away from the destroyers in normal conditions but hampered by decks full of raiders, some wounded or sea-sick. Tricky.
I think the raid idea is interesting but needs to be co-ordinated with what's happening with peace feelers from Halifax. And of course its target thought through. It won't be enough to force the UK to sign an armistice or agree to very unfavourable peace terms, as the OP suggests. But IF the raiders can inflict serious damage AND escape largely intact, then it would add to the pressure on the UK.
It's the exfiltration part that is very problematic. You may have to cut it to the scale of a small Commando raid, 100-200 men. Which then can't fulfil the harm done criteria. So back to square one??
Göring is ... dissapointed not having been allowed to bomb the BEF into the beaches. The Heer has got all the merits. In his dissapointment he meets - maybe - with Raeder and they cook up a plan for "doing something bold" to impress Hitler. Maybe they also find some "understanding" with the Brandenburgers (btw : founded under command of the Abwehr of Canaris).
Göring gives his Paras as well as airlift and ... aircover.
Therfore he presses the LW to accelerat the beginning og the first phases of the IOTL BoB ("nuisnace raids" and "Kanalkampf"(The Channel battles). See wiki for that and linked "subchapter", As an example for its effects IOTL :
As it seems the LW managed to keep the RAF quite busy as well as the RN, even sunk some destroyers and other vessels. Managed on 30.06. to "alert (panicking ?)" 20 counties with only 20 bombers flying.)The day had been a victory for the Luftwaffe, the attack on Portland inflicting the worst ever loss of life on British military personnel based in Britain.[60][61] Churchill was perturbed and submitted a memo to the Admiralty entitled "Action This Day",
Could you let me know on one sheet of paper what arrangements you are making about the Channel Convoys now that the Germans are all along the Channel coast? The attacks yesterday both from the air and by E-boats, were very serious, and I should like to be assured this morning that the situation is in hand and the Air is contributing effectively.[62]
Horton regarded the episode as a disgrace and the Admiralty complained to the Prime Minister, who demanded that Fighter Command do more to protect Channel shipping.
Raeder has to work out for some sea-lift (E-boats, T-boats, subs, no destroyers, as there aren't any available (many of them at the ground of the Narvik Fjord) as well as some ... more ... Navy distraction around Norway.
As well as - via Canaris and the Abwehr - some Brandenburgers. Maybe they also manage to get "hands" on some "Feld-Sonder Battalion" ("penal battalions") soldiers of the Wehrmacht (these were the "forebearers" of the rather highly motivated and effectiv "Strafdivision 500").
They would/could be used to fill the ranks as well as be counted as the "left behinds" to ease extraction/exfiltration, while the Paras and Brandenburgers as the more ... valuable ones are earmarked for extraction - and therefore reduce requirements of extraction capacity.
Abwehr also has to deliver suitable landing and embarking sites/points.
All these raids are "embedded" in and covered by LW sorties.
Maybe 2 "mayor" targets and 2 "minor"(distraction) targets.
For the "mayor" target a "first" waves of 20 gliders (200 men) each for securing landing area for paras to follow (maybe another 200 men or even more) each
For the "minor" targets "only" 10 gliders (100 men) without para follow-up (?). They are just for distraction, maybe some bomb laying.
(With 109 DFS 230 delivered until 30.06.1940 I would render 60 of them available for this raid).
Planned "needed" extraction capacity : about a third to a half of the men.
For the targets ... tbh, here I'm abit lost, as I'm not familiar enough with the english channel coast of this time, sea conditions, distrubution of Home Guard and/or other securing forces, value of potential targets/harbours/towns etc.
(In general : I admit, that military history of WW 2 en detail isn't my main focus. I just try to help alternating history thread on a board decidacted to alternatehistory.)