Peace with Britain in 1940: An alternate world war 2

Maybe - I really don't know how seriously Halifax was proposing this. But as PM in the position the UK was in with the "No Dunkirk miracle" POD, perhaps he'd have to deliver?

Realistically, he'd have to deliver his notice.

It's a bit odd that this fascination about Halifax endures, long after all the cliches have been documented and revised. My good friend @Fletch wrote an excellent TL where a stronger Halifax actually ends the war more quickly yet it seems that according to some he's still the ultimate answer to any scenario where the UK has to give the Axis anything it wants.
 
Perfidious Albion is exactly the right phrase right. Any peace in 1940 is an Amiens style pause for breath, not a peace in any real sense.

The UK has no intention of honouring any deal longer than necessary.

Moreover, never mind honouring, no PM would even consider signing the deal outlined in the OP. Unless the BEF, the Second BEF, and more than half the Home Fleet are destroyed, then this isn't happening. Not even close.
 

Redbeard

Banned
My thoughts too. But then the Enpire and the conquered Dutch and French have no reason to go along with the US embargo (IF that still is put in place) so Japan can access the raw materials it needs anyway. Probably paying with "loans at reasonable rates" from London. With the reopening of China to UK trade as one of the conditions once Japan needs to roll them over.
Interesting point - about the Colonial Empires not having the same interest to follow the US embargo, now everything is lost in Europe anyway - I can see it. For the Japanese it could surely be the narrow path out of their misery, but it will require a sensitive Japanese diplomacy that is rather fawning than bragging - and how likely is that?
 
The PoD for Halifax becoming Prime Minister was before the fall of Paris. As such, there was a small window whereby peace negotiations could be made which would not be a total surrender where Hitler gets everything he wants.

Negotiations with both Britain and France would allow for the avoidance of a Vichy regime. I also don't think colonies would be lost. Hitler wanted to concentrate on the east and peace with both the Western Allies would allow for this. I don't think he would risk this for a claim on African colonies which he had little interest in. He would want to limit the French Armed Forces to neutralise the threat from the West for when the inevitable invasion of the Soviet Union takes place.

In short, for Britain, a second Amiens is in order.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
-No German occupation or reparation payments, but Iceland and the Faroe Islands are returned to the Danish puppet state and Germany annexed the Channel Islands (Hitler wants to ensure the British don't interfere with his plans)
These ... might become problematic.

The Channel Islands :
Even Halifax could/would not afford ANY british soil being taken/occupied by german forces, even not after a Dunkirk-desaster.
But what seems possible to me : they have to be/stay demilitarized with german "conculs" for having an eye on that.
Would give both what they want : security for Hitler and face-saving for Halifax

Iceland and the Färöer :
Not to forget Greenland, also juridical danish territory. That would/could give the RN some bad headaches, as the germans WILL ITTL establish naval bases there, esp on Iceland, becomming probably a mayor war harbour.
That would make any possible future attempt of containing/blockading german ships (of whatever kind) MUCH more difficult.


And another point regarding Hitlers "desinterest" in colonies :
Fully agree in that he wouldn't see them as a solution to his "problems" (Jews and living space, perhaps even not regarding resources).
But ...
Raeder would be desperate for the possibility to create naval bases "oversea".
And pls don't forget : Hitler already had "identified" the US as his ultimate enemy to be beaten (after Living space has been secured, source : his "second book").

Wouldn't french Guayana or some caribbean island look ... appetizing ?
 
I do believe he could sway Halifax to give Malaysia
For someone who calls themselves an alternate history buff, your level of ignorance on this is outstanding. Regardless of a worse Dunkirk, there are several red lines that HMG simply wouldn't cross:
  • Loss of control or military use of Suez.
  • Loss of control or military use of Malta, and all points East.
  • Loss of Channel Islands.
You don't seem to have an understanding of how the British Government worked at the time. There was still a sense of Cabinet responsibility, and Halifax agreeing to these terms would see mass resignations from Cabinet that would precipitate a swift vote of no confidence.
 
Germany keeping the Channel Islands would cause problems and requires a more prostrate Britain then you have here. Besides, they aren't that useful as a potential base area and no real threat to France

Any German moves toward Iceland, Greenland or the Caribbean means immediate American response and are obvious continued moves to the British as well. See above regarding that. Concessions to the Italians and Spanish have not been earned either.

Best case the British might be willing to let the Germans get some African colonies back. Those are vulnerable to British counteraction later and thus less of a dire threat.
 
Interesting point - about the Colonial Empires not having the same interest to follow the US embargo, now everything is lost in Europe anyway - I can see it. For the Japanese it could surely be the narrow path out of their misery, but it will require a sensitive Japanese diplomacy that is rather fawning than bragging - and how likely is that?
In the long run Japan will probably come a cropper through hubris. But I don't think it would try to seize SE Asia and the DEI IF it was able to get through trade the resources it wanted to prosecute the war in China. ISTM it would be more likely to join the Nazis in attacking the USSR. Unless the US tried to interdict the SLOC to Se Asia/Indonesia? Or Japan thought it would.

In which case the mediocre piece of fiction by Newt Gingrich and an SF writer (Forstein?) called 1945 might be applicable.
 
What could FDR - realistically - do against it ITTL ? ... after Halifax and Hitler have signed their deal ?

The US is not ready for war certainly, but I suspect there would be very strong pressure on the British regarding that, and the US has a lot of economic measures it can take. If it really came down to it, the US Navy could make any Axis presence in any of those places untenable pretty quickly. The US Fleet could take action if it had to to prevent the German occupation of any of those places which would likely mean war, but we could also see the Germans backing down from that. Such a move would also more than alarm the Canadians who would immediately take steps away from the British and toward North American defense (and thus the Americans).

Moving into the Caribbean is going to have severe consequences in Latin America and once again the US would take whatever measures needed (particularly as the Monroe Doctrine would be applied in this case). While the US Army is not remotely ready for immediate action, the Navy can take action.

So the United States does indeed have options.
 
Part 2: Stalin Shot First
Fall 1940:
In light of the hurried German mobilization for Operation Barbarossa, Stalin has two options. Either wait for the Germans to make the first move, or launch a preemptive strike. Stalin's mentality and attitude towards this situation makes the choice obvious for him. Stalin issues Soviet Order 136 or Operation Icebreaker: To immediately plan an invasion of Germany starting December. Stalin reasons that "The Germans must be attacked before they can fully prepare their own. Why sit there and wait and watch the Germans amass troops when we can attack them first?". This order shocks the generals in the Stavka, in particular General Zhukov who unlike the rest of his fellow Yes-man Generals objects to Stalin "Are you crazy? Let them attack first and then let us launch our own counterattacks!". Stalin refuses the advice and responds coldly "Comrade Zhukov, will you follow my orders or not?". After hearing this Zhukov relents. He is not dumb to dare defy Stalin's orders. If he did, he would most likely be dismissed, and perhaps even exiled or shot. Then the Red Army would be in the hands of Yes-man generals with little experience, and would most likely doom the war effort. He hopes he can somehow defy all problems and make this offensive work, but in his mind he knows it will fail. Soviet troops during 1940 also occupy the Baltic states and Bessarabia (Bessarabia was not in the MRP but Hitler is in no position to challenge the order. In response, German troops with consent from Romania enter and take positions. The Vienna Awards sees Northern Transylvania given to Hungray and southern Dobruja occupied by Bulgaria. All 3 join the Axis and pledge to help in any war with the Soviets. Important to note is that without a British Coup (With Britain out of the war) Yugoslavia remains loyal to the Axis.

Hitler and the OKH meet in the Wolf's Lair to determine the order of Operations. With the Balkans allied with Germany there would be more possibilities to find weaknesses and execute a breakthrough to encircle the numerous but highly disorganized and poorly coordinated and equipped Red Army. Hitler boasts that "A simple kick to the door and the rest of the rotten house will fall down". Operations are set to begin on May 7th, 1941. Heinz Guderian leads Army Group center, Erich Von Manstein leads Army Group North (both were promoted more than IOTL due to the successful capture of Dunkirk and the elimination of 90% of the BEF) and Gerd Von Rundstedt. Manstein warns Hitler that Stalin may attack "any day" to take advantage of the incomplete buildup of Wehrmacht troops devoted to the offensive. In light of Soviet mobilization he argues to "Let the Soviets come first". He would delay the attack and bleed the Soviets, and then execute a backhand blow (much like the Third Battle of Kharkov) to encircle and destroy the attacking force. Hitler rejects it fully, but little do they know that Stalin will soon solve the problem between them two.

On December 1st the roar of Soviet tanks and planes accompanies the 3 million+ Red Army soldiers as they engage the Wehrmacht. While the Wehrmacht is prepared and capable of defending, they were caught by surprise and were forced to retreat. Hitler refuses to believe the attack, but eventually comes to senses. Hitler reluctantly accepts Manstein's plan even with his reluctance to give ground. He hopes to recreate the Battle of Tannenburg of World War 1 on a much larger scale. The unpreparedness Zhukov feared soon showed, and he urgently calls Stalin for a withdrawal of troops before they are encircled and destroyed. But Stalin refuses. This refusal seals the fate of the Red Army. On December 21st the advances stall after the Soviets advance 50 miles west and appear to have gained a tactical victory, but Soviet supplies are at a breaking point. Even worse, the German lines have regrouped and are more than intact. The superior Luftwaffe has driven the Soviet Air Force out of the skies. The Germans are poised for a counteroffensive. On December 16th, Operation Winter Storm is executed as the Wehrmacht performs well coordinated counterattacks on the Soviet flanks. Not even Zhukov can prevent the impending disaster. Zhukov decides takes a gamble, in a last ditch attempt he orders a tactical retreat on many fronts. He knows that this defiance of Stalin's orders will cost him his command and potentially his life, but he hopes by doing this the Red Army could live to fight another day. The tactical retreat is highly disorganized as German Panzers smash through the overstretched soviet positions and completely sever supply lines. Over 2 million soldiers are encircled in numerous pockets. Starvation and hopelessness compels 2 million troops to surrender in a defeat unparalleled in history (This is NOT the patriotic Red Army fighting for survival IOTL)

Manstein proclaims to Hitler "A Christmas gift for you, mein fuhrer! Two million Soviet prisoners!" The victory is celebrated over Germany as a product of "Hitler's Genius" but is in reality a credit to the highly skilled General staff that compose the OKH and the Wehrmacht. Stalin breaks down soon after news of the surrender and the disastrous defeat. He retreats to his Dacha outside Moscow in a state of despair. This is further compounded when Japan, convinced of Soviet weakness and unwilling to expand south(Due to free trade with Britain) along with desire for northern expansion and revenge for the border wars cause Hirohito launches offensives into Siberia. Now the Soviets face a two-front war against highly determined enemies. Zhukov and the majority of the generals involved in the offensive (including Rokossovsky) are tried. Georgy Zhukov is sentenced to death (mainly for ordering a retreat against Stalin's orders) while Rokossovsky is stripped of command and forced into exile. This further deprives the Red Army of competent Generals

Hitler is now planning the main attack to conquer the Soviet Union. The failure of the offensive has left gaping holes in the Red Army. Even worse, many divisions are tied to the far east with the entry of Japan into the war. Who will win?
 
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EDIT: In part one I revised it so the Channel Islands remain a part of the UK (not much use out of them anyway).
For those who criticize part 2 and say Stalin would never order an attack, IMHO he would ITTL due to the armistice between Germany and Britain. And Stalin's military incompetence, overconfidence, and his ambitions drive him to order a suicidal offensive. His generals would be the scapegoats and Zhukov, who would try and stick to his tactical consciousness, would pay with his life.
 
Realistically, he'd have to deliver his notice.

It's a bit odd that this fascination about Halifax endures, long after all the cliches have been documented and revised. My good friend @Fletch wrote an excellent TL where a stronger Halifax actually ends the war more quickly yet it seems that according to some he's still the ultimate answer to any scenario where the UK has to give the Axis anything it wants.

Any biographies of Halifax that help debunk this cannard?
 

hipper

Banned
The PoD is that Hitler never orders the halt order, and that 90% of the BEF is captured or killed at Dunkirk. This sways the War cabinet crisis just in favor of Lord Halifax and he becomes Prime Minister.
EDIT: Revised so that Hirohito instead demands just British Malaysia. He comes as he takes advantage of the armistice and wants a piece of the pie. I do believe he could sway Halifax to give Malaysia, partly due to the unsustainable nature of it (due to Japan owning French Indochina). Plus Japan offers good payment.

The Decision to fight on was taken before any troops had been evacuated from Dunkirk,
Churchill had told his Cabinet that he planned to fight to the bitter end and he had the support of the Cabinet. When that decision was made they only expected to get 30000 troops back from France.

You need an earlier POD Killing Churchill off in late 1939 would probably be best. The Japanese Don't want Malaysia they want Oil agreeing to sell them oil would let them complete their war in China whatever America said.
 
Any biographies of Halifax that help debunk this cannard?

It's not so much debunking as changing reality. In reality Halifax was a very pliable figure. He had good relations with
Labour because he was a very accommodating and friendly man.

But that's not a leader and there's a reason why Halifax didn't want to be PM. He would have delegated almost everything and when he suggested surrendering to fascism he would have been told that it wasn't an option. If he wanted to remain PM he would have gone with the collective decision and probably would have been a better PM than Churchill. He didn't have the same appetite for flanking manouvres that ended in disaster.

Where @Fletch's TL is interesting is that you have a different Halifax. A chess master who waits until the Nazis and Soviets are at loggerheads and then joins back in.
 
It's not so much debunking as changing reality. In reality Halifax was a very pliable figure. He had good relations with
Labour because he was a very accommodating and friendly man.

But that's not a leader and there's a reason why Halifax didn't want to be PM. He would have delegated almost everything and when he suggested surrendering to fascism he would have been told that it wasn't an option. If he wanted to remain PM he would have gone with the collective decision and probably would have been a better PM than Churchill. He didn't have the same appetite for flanking manouvres that ended in disaster.

Where @Fletch's TL is interesting is that you have a different Halifax. A chess master who waits until the Nazis and Soviets are at loggerheads and then joins back in.
I'm about 15,000 words into writing a far better version of Halifax(this has taken months), but as a base it is worth a shot.
 
What could FDR - realistically - do against it ITTL ? ... after Halifax and Hitler have signed their deal ?
Very little, but Halifax is not signing any deal that hands Iceland and the Faeroe Islands over to the Germans, or a Danish sockpuppet stretched over a German fist.

If he tries (which he wouldn't, but that's by the by), he will be asked to head back to the Lords, while the Commons would handle the negotiations. The cabinet will not countenance it. If he refuses to resign, the cabinet will resign en masse. The admiralty will not countenance it.

The cabinet itself will declare that it has no confidence in the government. The government will fall.

At this point, they'd look for an experienced MP, committed to the fight, and one who, whatever his faults, won't allow the enemy to hold a sword of Damocles over the RN, and our lines of supply to the New World. Now it won't be easy to find such a man, but...

WSC.jpg


Oh. Never mind.
 
It's not so much debunking as changing reality. In reality Halifax was a very pliable figure. He had good relations with
Labour because he was a very accommodating and friendly man.

But that's not a leader and there's a reason why Halifax didn't want to be PM. He would have delegated almost everything and when he suggested surrendering to fascism he would have been told that it wasn't an option. If he wanted to remain PM he would have gone with the collective decision and probably would have been a better PM than Churchill. He didn't have the same appetite for flanking manouvres that ended in disaster.

Where @Fletch's TL is interesting is that you have a different Halifax. A chess master who waits until the Nazis and Soviets are at loggerheads and then joins back in.
That's the main reason why Hitler wants the Faroe Islands and Iceland returned to the Danish puppet state. This would be at suggestion of Karl Dönitz and Raeder and allow the KM to better control the North Atlantic in a war against the US. Hitler is also afraid that as he and the soviets are deadlocked in fighting that the British may interfere and open the second front (same reason why France remains tied to Berlin). By taking those islands he can construct massive airbases and house dockyards full of LC. This allows the ability to execute landings in the Scottish Highlands and throughout Britain instead of just in the heavily defended Channel coast and Dover. He hopes that Britain will remain friendly however and potentially wooed over to Fascism itself.
 
That's the main reason why Hitler wants the Faroe Islands and Iceland returned to the Danish puppet state. This would be at suggestion of Karl Dönitz and Raeder and allow the KM to better control the North Atlantic in a war against the US. Hitler is also afraid that as he and the soviets are deadlocked in fighting that the British may interfere and open the second front (same reason why France remains tied to Berlin). By taking those islands he can construct massive airbases and house dockyards full of LC. This allows the ability to execute landings in the Scottish Highlands and throughout Britain instead of just in the heavily defended Channel coast and Dover. He hopes that Britain will remain friendly however and potentially wooed over to Fascism itself.
I do think that Stalin would take the initiative which would result in a "Mega Tannenburg" and with resources secured and the Empire on guard a still expansionist Japan would join in the slaughter of Russia.
 
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