Peace with Britain in 1940: An alternate world war 2

Part 1: Peace of our time?

ITTL, Lord Halifax becomes prime minister instead of Churchill after the Fall of France. This is because at Dunkirk the halt order is never given and 90% of the BEF is captured or killed. Lord Halifaximmediately offers Germany a "Peace with honor". Hitler is elated upon hearing this and reportly exclaims "I have the world in my Pocket!"
As Hitler requested, the armistice takes place at the Somme where Hitler was wounded in World War 1.
Hitler and Mussolini assure Britain that the peace would be "Amicable"
Armistice at the Somme:

Hitler's demands are simple, he wants only minor territorial concessions to ensure German dominance and to woo the British into not interfering with further German ventures. This greatly conflicts with Mussolini and Hirohito who want large territorial concessions.
-German hegemony over Europe is recognized by the British, including a French puppet state
-Britain keeps all of France's colonies,
But must give French Djibouti, British Somalia, French Tunisia, and Malta. -
-Demilitarization of the Suez Canal.
-No German occupation or reparation payments, but Iceland and the Faroe Islands are returned to the Danish puppet states (Hitler wants to ensure the British don't interfere with his plans)
-All German reparation payments are nullified. Free trade with the Axis Powers.
-All POWs are exchanged to their respective nations. Oswald Mosley and his party are legalized.
The British public wary of war agrees, Churchill calls the peace an "utter disgrace" but lacks influence to prevent its passage in Parliament.
Stalin is incredibly horrified at these events. Against objections, he orders the mobilization of the Soviets and orders Zhukov and other High Commanders to prepare for an attack by June 1st of 1941.

Hitler is not blind to this, he too orders a mass buildup of troops. Haunted by Napoleon's failures, he orders the Wehrmacht to be mechanized "as much as possible" by the time of the invasion.

With an intact Luftwaffe and the entire might of the Wehrmacht at Hitler's disposal, could Operation Barbarossa succeed? Or will Stalin's awareness save his country from defeat? Who will fire the first shot?
Please give constructive feedback and advice. IMHO this TL would lead to Axis Triumph, but your thoughts are appreciated.
 
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It seems frightened plausible. I presume Malta, Tunis and British Somalia would be ceded to Italy? Ditto "French Eritrea", by which I think you mean Djbouti.

I'm not sure even Halifax in these dire straits would agree to cede Malaysia to Japan nor that Hitler would demand it. The Dutch East Indies maybe though in both cases Japan might simply be satisfied with preferential trade deals anyway in mid-1940.

Whatever, you would seem to have butterflied away the Pacific War. Japan now has what it needs to prosecute the war in China and to attack the USSR if it wishes too. Unless the US seeks to interdict its SLOC to SE Asia from the Philippines, which seems unlikely. Though a Japan fearful of that might still seek to occupy the Philippines. Pearl Harbour attack, maybe, maybe not. The US would still be building its 'Two Ocean Navy' and the White Dominions would start looking to it for security. Hmm, would the US go ahead with the Manhattan Programme plus teh B-36?

The Nazi-Soviet war would play out differently. Stalin would not be surprised by Barbarossa, the Soviet Union would be fully mobilized and defensive plans prepared for immediate implementation.
 
-Under pressure from Hirohito, British Malaysia and the Indies are seceded to Japan, but are paid for.

What? Like hell they will. Might be that the UK is willing for peace, but Indonesia sure as hell isn't. The Dutch government is safe and sound in Canada, they ain't going to be signing no papers. Its 1940, no reason to just hand all of Indonesia over to Japan, no matter how much they pay. Unless with Indies you mean Indochina.

Don't see any reason for Hitler to have Japan join in the peace talks anyway. The tripartite pact wasn't even signed yet.

I see them take Indochina and Malaysia though. I'm sure the Vichy regime is much more willing to agree to secessions as well.
 

hipper

Banned
Part 1: Peace of our time?

ITTL, Lord Halifax becomes prime minister instead of Churchill after the Fall of France. This is because at Dunkirk the halt order is never given and 90% of the BEF is captured or killed. Lord Halifaximmediately offers Germany a "Peace with honor". Hitler is elated upon hearing this and reportly exclaims "I have the world in my Pocket!"
As Hitler requested, the armistice takes place at the Somme where Hitler was wounded in World War 1.
Hitler and Mussolini assure Britain that the peace would be "Amicable"
Armistice at the Somme:

Hitler's demands are simple, he wants only minor territorial concessions to ensure German dominance and to woo the British into not interfering with further German ventures. This greatly conflicts with Mussolini and Hirohito who want large territorial concessions.
-German hegemony over Europe is recognized by the British, including a French puppet state
-Britain keeps all of France's colonies,
But must give French Eritrea, British Somalia, French Tunisia, and Malta. -
-Demilitarization of the Suez Canal.
-No German occupation or reparation payments, but Iceland and the Faroe Islands are returned to the Danish puppet state and Germany annexed the Channel Islands (Hitler wants to ensure the British don't interfere with his plans)
-All German reparation payments are nullified. Free trade with the Axis Powers.
-Under pressure from Hirohito, British Malaysia and the Indies are seceded to Japan, but are paid for.
-All POWs are exchanged to their respective nations. Oswald Mosley and his party are legalized.
The British public wary of war agrees, Churchill calls the peace an "utter disgrace" but lacks influence to prevent its passage in Parliament.
Stalin in incredibly horrified at these events. Against objections, he orders the mobilization of the Soviets and orders Zhukov and other High Commanders to prepare for an attack by June 1st of 1941.

Hitler is not blind to this, he too orders a mass buildup of troops. Haunted by Napoleon's failures, he orders the Wehrmacht to be mechanized "as much as possible" by the time of the invasion.

With an intact Luftwaffe and the entire might of the Wehrmacht at Hitler's disposal, could Operation Barbarossa succeed? Or will Stalin's awareness save his country from defeat? Who will fire the first shot?
Please give constructive feedback and advice. IMHO this TL would lead to Acis Triumph, but your thoughts are appreciated.

Churchill became prime minister on May 10th due to The poor performance in Norway, You need an earlier POD.
 
The PoD is that Hitler never orders the halt order, and that 90% of the BEF is captured or killed at Dunkirk. This sways the War cabinet crisis just in favor of Lord Halifax and he becomes Prime Minister.
EDIT: Revised so that Hirohito instead demands just British Malaysia. He comes as he takes advantage of the armistice and wants a piece of the pie. I do believe he could sway Halifax to give Malaysia, partly due to the unsustainable nature of it (due to Japan owning French Indochina). Plus Japan offers good payment.
 
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So the stop order isn't given, and the panzers find out just how hard it is to traverse sodden ground riddled with drainage ditches while under fire of AT guns.
yaright, that'll work well.

If Halifax tries to give Malaya away, he'll be out of a job so fast...
Same with Malta.

I realise you want to set up a scene, but please try and avoid blatant implausabilities.
 
So the stop order isn't given, and the panzers find out just how hard it is to traverse sodden ground riddled with drainage ditches while under fire of AT guns.
yaright, that'll work well.

If Halifax tries to give Malaya away, he'll be out of a job so fast...
Same with Malta.

I realise you want to set up a scene, but please try and avoid blatant implausabilities.
I made Japan not demand Malaysia in light of feedback vehemently against such a possibility. It is still very possible that the no halt order results in the disorderly BEF to be overrun and potentially massacred. Malta would be seceded as Mussolini would pressure for it. With Gibraltar and Suez still occupied by the British this would not be such a big deal.
 
I made Japan not demand Malaysia in light of feedback vehemently against such a possibility. It is still very possible that the no halt order results in the disorderly BEF to be overrun and potentially massacred. Malta would be seceded as Mussolini would pressure for it. With Gibraltar and Suez still occupied by the British this would not be such a big deal.

except for the people of Malta..

The world is not a chess board you know.
 
With Gibraltar and Suez still occupied by the British this would not be such a big deal.

Malta isn't quite as important as either of those but it's still not something to be flippantly thrown away. Malta is the first line of defence for any Italian aspirations in Egypt, conceding it would significantly alter the balance of power in the Med in favour of the Regia Marina.
 
Malta isn't quite as important as either of those but it's still not something to be flippantly thrown away. Malta is the first line of defence for any Italian aspirations in Egypt, conceding it would significantly alter the balance of power in the Med in favour of the Regia Marina.
Still, in extremis the UK might cede Malta or have it as a co-dominium with Italy. IIRC it was on the list of concessions Halifax was willing to make to keep Italy out of the war.

Edit - Could be wrong. I have "drink taken" ATM.
 
Still, in extremis the UK might cede Malta or have it as a co-dominium with Italy. IIRC it was on the list of concessions Halifax was willing to make to keep Italy out of the war.

Edit - Could be wrong. I have "drink taken" ATM.

That still goes back to the Halifax =/= Cabinet though. I'm sure I've heard it before that he had offered Malta but I imagine that was more of a conceptual offer as a lure for more realistic negotiations.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I don't think Germany will be given any concessions outside the European continent. They simply don't have the power to back such claims up and I doubt they by 1940 would really care about much outside Europe and the border to USSR.

So, the Germans in reality will have to let down Italy and Japan in order to achieve a peace with the British Empire and be able to focus on USSR. Seen with my 20/20 hindsight I think that would be a very good deal for Germany - neither Italy nor Japan brought Germany anything but trouble and if they are going to have a chance vs. USSR you certainly need a free back.

Japan will be in big trouble. With an British Empire not committed elsewhere it will be nigh-on impossible to repeat the OTL Far Eastern campaign.
 
I made Japan not demand Malaysia in light of feedback vehemently against such a possibility. It is still very possible that the no halt order results in the disorderly BEF to be overrun and potentially massacred. Malta would be seceded as Mussolini would pressure for it. With Gibraltar and Suez still occupied by the British this would not be such a big deal.

What disorder? You make it sound like the BEF was a rabble running away, throwing their weapons away as they did so.
It was nothing of the sort.

Why should the British give anything to Mussolini? You keep forgetting, the British aren't in extremis, they are sitting behind their moat and the Royal Navy.
You're assuming Halifax has some sort of panic attack upon a German victory, and starts ceding chunks of the Empire. Isn't going to happen, and if it did he'd be shunted aside.
 
What disorder? You make it sound like the BEF was a rabble running away, throwing their weapons away as they did so.
It was nothing of the sort.

Why should the British give anything to Mussolini? You keep forgetting, the British aren't in extremis, they are sitting behind their moat and the Royal Navy.
You're assuming Halifax has some sort of panic attack upon a German victory, and starts ceding chunks of the Empire. Isn't going to happen, and if it did he'd be shunted aside.
I'm sure Halifax would be more willing than Churchill (couldn't be less) to cede some chunks of the Empire IF Britain's position after the loss of the BEF seemed hopeless. How much is another matter. For the "Empire Loyalist"/"High Tories" Faction the Empire was what mattered so goving away more than a bare minimum would be ASB.

I think Halifax had said prior to the POD (?) that Malta would be a reasonable price to get Mussolini to stay "neutral" and act as peace-broker so don't find that cession implausible. Though of course Hitler could simply shaft Mussolini anyway in his joy at getting a peace he can live with and so concentrate on Barbarossa.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Erhmm ... I'm a bit confused about all this talk about japan and the pacific theatre.

In May/June, the time the armistice of TTL would be "negotiated"/concluded, there were tensions in SE-Asia, but no war - at least between the Great Powers, "only" the ongoing Cina-rumble between various chinese factions and Japan.

The Tripartite Pact between Germany-Italy-Japan was signed on 27th September 1940, about 3 month after TTL Somme-armistice.
I don't see any reason, why the japanes would have much or even any say in its negotiations.
They will be happy to be granted "favorable" economic relations with the DEI and control of french Indochine for virually nothing.

... though perhaps a bit worried about now possible redistributions of the RN ...


Oh, and THIS
-Britain keeps all of France's colonies
(maybe aside french Indochine) seems to me a rather gratious "compensation" for Malta, British Somalia (and maybe ?? Gibralta ?)
 
I don't think Germany will be given any concessions outside the European continent. They simply don't have the power to back such claims up and I doubt they by 1940 would really care about much outside Europe and the border to USSR.

So, the Germans in reality will have to let down Italy and Japan in order to achieve a peace with the British Empire and be able to focus on USSR. Seen with my 20/20 hindsight I think that would be a very good deal for Germany - neither Italy nor Japan brought Germany anything but trouble and if they are going to have a chance vs. USSR you certainly need a free back.

Japan will be in big trouble. With an British Empire not committed elsewhere it will be nigh-on impossible to repeat the OTL Far Eastern campaign.
My thoughts too. But then the Enpire and the conquered Dutch and French have no reason to go along with the US embargo (IF that still is put in place) so Japan can access the raw materials it needs anyway. Probably paying with "loans at reasonable rates" from London. With the reopening of China to UK trade as one of the conditions once Japan needs to roll them over.
 
Halifax can easily get the job instead of Churchill and Dunkirk being a disaster can between them simply be "The British have a disastrous spring in 1940" POD (or two PODs) Both are possible independently of one another and in conjunction would give you the desired overall POD.

Curious to see where you go with this. I wrote a timeline with a similar POD many years ago for a friend of mine to use for a campaign setting (wargaming miniatures) but it was hand written and long gone. So I am rooting for you.
 
That still goes back to the Halifax =/= Cabinet though. I'm sure I've heard it before that he had offered Malta but I imagine that was more of a conceptual offer as a lure for more realistic negotiations.
Maybe - I really don't know how seriously Halifax was proposing this. But as PM in the position the UK was in with the "No Dunkirk miracle" POD, perhaps he'd have to deliver?

Doesn't matter as far as what happens in 1941 and Barbarossa IMHO. That would be very different to OTL. I think a prepared USSR could resist the first onslaught better than iOTL (German logistic problems can't be cured in less that a year in my view). Thereafter the Nazis ought to be able to stand a long war better than iOTL. So 50:50 Nazi victory in 1943 por bloody stalemate by then?

With the UK ready to backstabbing Hitler in the latter scenario with US support??

There's a reason Britain is "Perfidious Albion"!!
 
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