Peace Treaty with Ottomans if Russians join Central Powers

Say Germany chooses Russia as an ally over Austria-Hungary and they end up in a WWI analogue against AH, France, Britain, and the Ottomans. Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria are also fighting on the side of the Central Powers. What sort of peace treaty would they enforce on the Ottomans if they ended up winning?
 

nbcman

Donor
I don't see how Italy, Bulgaria and Greece would join the CP since they would be isolated and easily defeated, unless they joined after AH was defeated. So it would be an OE - Russian war as IOTL except with larger forces that cant be supported in the Caucasus. Maybe there is a small border concession but not much more than that.

EDIT: if Romania was in the CP, there could be a Balkan front since Bulgaria could be supported.
 
I don't see how Italy, Bulgaria and Greece would join the CP since they would be isolated and easily defeated, unless they joined after AH was defeated. So it would be an OE - Russian war as IOTL except with larger forces that cant be supported in the Caucasus. Maybe there is a small border concession but not much more than that.

EDIT: if Romania was in the CP, there could be a Balkan front since Bulgaria could be supported.
Yes. I neglected to mention Romania. I was envisioning a Russian dominated balkans because the treaty of San Stefano is supported by the Germans.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Say Germany chooses Russia as an ally over Austria-Hungary and they end up in a WWI analogue against AH, France, Britain, and the Ottomans. Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria are also fighting on the side of the Central Powers. What sort of peace treaty would they enforce on the Ottomans if they ended up winning?
In short: Russia gets the Armenian Vilayets, Trebizond, the Straits, and possibly the Kurdish-plurality and Kurdish-majority areas of the Ottoman Empire as well.
 
In short: Russia gets the Armenian Vilayets, Trebizond, the Straits, and possibly the Kurdish-plurality and Kurdish-majority areas of the Ottoman Empire as well.
What about Western Anatolia? Would Italy or Greece take any of the land there? Also, what would happen to Mesopotamia and Syria?
 

BooNZ

Banned
I don't see how Italy, Bulgaria and Greece would join the CP since they would be isolated and easily defeated, unless they joined after AH was defeated. So it would be an OE - Russian war as IOTL except with larger forces that cant be supported in the Caucasus. Maybe there is a small border concession but not much more than that.

EDIT: if Romania was in the CP, there could be a Balkan front since Bulgaria could be supported.

Are you anticipating Italy being invaded by an army of mutated merman or perhaps some european yetis. Those threats being more likely than France, Britain or A-H being able to launch a meaningful offensive accoss the alps or naval invasion before 1915.

Conversely, in addition to Italy, A-H will be facing German, Russian and Bulgarian forces, and that's assuming those peace loving Serbians are not also in the mix. A-H will be going down faster than...
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Are you anticipating Italy being invaded by an army of mutated merman or perhaps some european yetis. Those threats being more likely than France, Britain or A-H being able to launch a meaningful offensive accoss the alps or naval invasion before 1915.

Conversely, in addition to Italy, A-H will be facing German, Russian and Bulgarian forces, and that's assuming those peace loving Serbians are not also in the mix. A-H will be going down faster than...
To be fair, though, Russia would probably be even weaker in this TL without all of that French investment.
 
To be fair, though, Russia would probably be even weaker in this TL without all of that French investment.
To be even fairer, A-H would be also significantly weaker as well as completely bottled up into its borders: no Bosnia, no expansion in the Balkans. It is quite possible that the empire might dissolve (or at least experience a serious civil war) by the end of 19th century
 

CaliGuy

Banned
To be even fairer, A-H would be also significantly weaker as well as completely bottled up into its borders: no Bosnia, no expansion in the Balkans. It is quite possible that the empire might dissolve (or at least experience a serious civil war) by the end of 19th century
Couldn't a lot of French investment go into Austria-Hungary in this TL instead, though?
 
Couldn't a lot of French investment go into Austria-Hungary in this TL instead, though?
It is not just a matter of money. The returns on investment would be lower in AH, since the country is already in a better situation than Russia. Whatever investment come furthermore would strengthen Cisleithania, in particular Bohemia and the rift with Transleithania would widen. Not to mention that Bismarck had very good relations with Magyar and if he decides to go with Russia (rather than A-H) say in 1888 he might find ways to make tings more difficult. There would also be a militarization of A-H since ITTL they need to defend all of their borders, since they are surrounded by enemies. This would also drain a lot of money. Russia - on the other hand - would see a substantial increase of German investment, and I am pretty sure that there would be French investment too: the opportunities are too good, considered the Russian needs for infrastructures and industrialization, and capitals - then as now - are not really taking into consideration the delicacies of geopolitics. They go where returns are good.
 

nbcman

Donor
Are you anticipating Italy being invaded by an army of mutated merman or perhaps some european yetis. Those threats being more likely than France, Britain or A-H being able to launch a meaningful offensive accoss the alps or naval invasion before 1915.

Conversely, in addition to Italy, A-H will be facing German, Russian and Bulgarian forces, and that's assuming those peace loving Serbians are not also in the mix. A-H will be going down faster than...
Why would the Alt Entente have to invade Greece, Bulgaria or Italy at all? After calling up soldiers, Italy was no longer sufficient for food. Italy also was not able to supply enough coal domestically and was dependent on the UK for 90% of their supplies. ITTL, Italy would have to be relieved relatively quickly or they would be forced to surrender. More likely, Italy would stay on the sidelines until A-H was decisively defeated and then join the war as a CP power.

Similarly, Greece was isolated and dependent on supplies that would be easily blockaded by the Entente. Again, Greece would either be starved out or remain neutral until after the war was decided.

Take a look at the railway connections in 1914 and you'll see that these peripheral countries could not be supplied before A-H was defeated as the Alt CP could not send supplies by sea in the Black Sea or the Mediterranean.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Why would the Alt Entente have to invade Greece, Bulgaria or Italy at all? After calling up soldiers, Italy was no longer sufficient for food. Italy also was not able to supply enough coal domestically and was dependent on the UK for 90% of their supplies. ITTL, Italy would have to be relieved relatively quickly or they would be forced to surrender. More likely, Italy would stay on the sidelines until A-H was decisively defeated and then join the war as a CP power.

At best, a blockade strategy involves a very long fuse. OTL the blockade of the CP powers took several years before it started to impact on CP military performance. OTL the CP powers only folded after millions of casualties and when the prospects of victory were practically zero. Suggesting Italy would immediately surrender after a few under cooked pizzas is a stretch...

Similarly, Greece was isolated and dependent on supplies that would be easily blockaded by the Entente. Again, Greece would either be starved out or remain neutral until after the war was decided.

The outcome of any continental war with Germany and Russia on the same side is a forgone conclusion. Greece represents no strategic value and has no hostile borders to defend, so the extent of any military engagement would be of Greek choosing. Its naval assets would clearly need to keep a low profile.

Take a look at the railway connections in 1914 and you'll see that these peripheral countries could not be supplied before A-H was defeated as the Alt CP could not send supplies by sea in the Black Sea or the Mediterranean.

How long do you envisage A-H surviving against the combined might of Russia and Germany, while also keeping covering forces on Italian, Bulgarian and Serbian borders? How long do you think the Ottomans can subsequently keep a foothold in Europe against a combined Bulgarian/Greek/Russian/German forces? The mere threat to the straights would dictate the Anglo-French naval forces abandon the Black sea.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
It is not just a matter of money. The returns on investment would be lower in AH, since the country is already in a better situation than Russia. Whatever investment come furthermore would strengthen Cisleithania, in particular Bohemia and the rift with Transleithania would widen. Not to mention that Bismarck had very good relations with Magyar and if he decides to go with Russia (rather than A-H) say in 1888 he might find ways to make tings more difficult. There would also be a militarization of A-H since ITTL they need to defend all of their borders, since they are surrounded by enemies. This would also drain a lot of money. Russia - on the other hand - would see a substantial increase of German investment, and I am pretty sure that there would be French investment too: the opportunities are too good, considered the Russian needs for infrastructures and industrialization, and capitals - then as now - are not really taking into consideration the delicacies of geopolitics. They go where returns are good.
Wouldn't there have still been a lot of potential for investment in Germany proper during this time, though? If so, couldn't that have ensured that the amount of German investment in Russia will remain relatively limited?

Indeed, wasn't France more capable of foreign/external investment during this time than Germany was?

Also, Yes, some French capital will still flow to Russia in this TL for business reasons; however, France might nevertheless encourage its bankers to invest more in countries which are friendlier to France.
 
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