alternatehistory.com

In WWII the Soviets strongly pressured the Allies into creating a western Front to absorb some of the 200 + German divisions facing them; what if before Bagration, etc. could happen (perhaps as a result of the loss at Stalingrad) the German army adopts an elastic defence ideology - ie, flexible defence and large panzer force in reserve, not thrown away at Kursk. Suppose that the Italian landing still happens, but grinding to a halt either on Sicily or the lower reaches of "the boot." Stalin, enraged at what he perceives to be Western duplicity (ie, he thinks Britain and US want Russia to be exhausted) and military weakness, decides to come to terms with Germany. With the stroke of a pen the Soviet government signs away Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.

Stalin believes that he will be able to get it back in a few years, and neither side believes the peace will last, but Germany cannot afford to say no. Uncle Joe finds that things get worse when rebellions break out in central asia and the Caucasus, and carries out another and bloodier purge of the Army (something it is rumored he was planning to do anyway, before his death).

What do the Allies do now? Germany is free to send multitudes of troops to Italy, and France will be even harder to crack now, nor is there any real reason to initiate the second front. And, if possible, might we avoid any possible wankage in the idea of "omg wank wank wank US nukes Europe and Germany surrenders wank wank wank!!"
Top