Peace In Our Time… 1940

An ambitious project to say the least - but I don’t shy from a challenge. I asked myself what would have happened if the UK had chosen peace with Germany in 1940. This, of course, changes so much around the world - a non-existent war can’t expand to other theatres. I may have missed a few details here, but I am trying to give the most comprehensive overall idea.

First, I should explain how this could arise. It isn’t as unlikely a scenario as you might think, many believed at the time that this would happen. The German high command expected the British to choose peace - especially before Churchill came to power - and many within the UK were still in support of appeasement.

There are two main turning points where this may have happened. First would be the fall of Norway. The British, under Chamberlain, had taken the decision to send a force to Norway to try to defend Scandinavia - unsuccessfully. Denmark fell within a few weeks and Norway - with next to no standing army or Navy - followed suite. The British were disgraced by an enormous failure and the German war machine seemed unstoppable. In our timeline, this was the point at which Chamberlain stepped down and Churchill took up the reigns of government. There are two other scenarios which could have led to peace in 1940 at this point. At this point, after the loss of Poland, Denmark and Norway, Chamberlin could have sought peace with the seemingly invincible German War machine. This would not be too dishonourable, but may have led to a Versaille-style crippling of the Allies. This, I feel was the less likely of the two options.

The second option would, I feel, be far more plausible and have more of an effect. I will be basing the rest of the scenario mainly around this. After Chamberlain’s failure, he still would have stepped down, but it wasn’t certain that Churchill would have taken power. Another option would have been the secretary for foreign affairs, Edward Wood (Lord Halifax). In a meeting between Chamberlain, Churchill, Halifax, Clement Attlee and Arthur Greenwood, Chamberlain was told that he could expect a coalition with the Labour Party - if he stepped down as Prime Minister. This left Churchill and Halifax in the running. Halifax was not as committed to the war effort as Churchill - or as popular outside of the Conservative Party. However, the Party, Chamberlain and the King would have prefered Halifax to have taken power. In my scenario, these three powers get their way and Halifax has a much greater lust for power. Halifax takes power and this changes the cause of the war on the Western Front. What the British were not prepared for was the blitzkrieg of the Benelux region, leaving almost their entire force trapped at Dunkirk. France fell and the British army was in full retreat - the Allies seemed broken and the UK appeared defeated. At this point Halifax, a less belligerent leader, would quite probably have sought peace with Germany - if not surrendered entirely. With the French government capitulated and Britain seeking to end the war, the situation in Europe would be very different to that which we see today.

Poland, Denmark, Norway, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and France were under German control. Britain was bowing to the German Reich. Italy was allied with Germany and poised to conquer the Balkans. Sweden, Spain, Ireland and Finland were under the German sphere of influence. Where could Europe go from here?

The Nazi party would have desired to spread fascism to the UK, and would have begun supporting groups such as the BUF, Sinn Fein and the SNP. With German military pressure (a partial disarmament may have been demanded in the peace-deal and Halifax may have ordered surrender at Dunkirk rather than a rescue effort) the British elections would have been rigged in favour of pro-German MPs. With figures like Churchill removed from government, the UK would have appeared more and more like a German puppet state - King Edward may even have been recalled from exile and crowned once again as a pro-Nazi puppet monarch for Hitler.

At first, the public would not have accepted Mosley becoming Prime Minister, but he would probably have rejoined the Labour Party and become far more influential in a Labour Government. Groups such as the Scottish Nationalists supported the Nazis in our timeline, and may have gained much more power, probably leading to a Reichskommissariat Schottland and Northern Ireland becoming part of the Free State.

As in our timeline, resistance groups would have begun to grow in occupied Europe - de Gaulle may have made a broadcast to the French people from Algiers or Tunis to try and rally support. Furthermore, many in Britain would have been against submission to Germany and would have felt betrayed. A split in Britain was about to start growing. Figures such as Churchill could have united and led an organised resistance along with some from British High Command. These figures may have fled to the colonies or dominions to organise the resistance from overseas. More likely, most figures - especially Churchill - would have insisted on remaining in Britain and fermenting resistance at home. With resistance movements in both the UK and France, they would probably have worked together, although communist resistance groups in both countries would have made things more difficult.

Despite resistance in the west, German High Command would now be able to concentrate mainly on the East. Operation Barbarossa would have started probably in the August of 1941, making rapid progress deep into Russia. The Germans could have spared more panzer divisions from the Western Front, but supply chains may have been more stretched. If this extra armour was able to break through on the Don front, then the German War Machine could have punched down to the Georgia oil fields and then had the strength to take Moscow and the far north. The Soviets would have been pushed back, possibly as far as the Urals, by 1943 and the Nazis would then begin to wind down the war effort. Through occasional skirmishes and the use of V2 rockets, the Nazis could keep the last vestiges of the Soviet army at bay while keeping up a steady stream of propaganda-ready news. The Lebensraum project would have succeeded and the Russian people would have suffered under Nazi rule. Surprisingly, the Jewish people’s suffering may not have been so great. Without the urgency of losing the war, the Final Solution would never have been implemented. One of the resettlement plans would have been much more likely, probably to Israel/Palestine rather than Madagascar.

With German victory in the East and a fragile peace in the west, the USA would not have been inclined to fight in Europe, although fighting the Japanese in the Pacific would have been necessary to protect American interests. This would not have spread to Europe unless resistance fully took hold. Only if trade between America and western Europe was threatened, would the Americans see any reason for an unprovoked attack.

The final question would be how all this was to end. Stretching their control over most of Europe, European Russia, North Africa and even the Middle East, the Thousand Year Reich would not have been practical. The question on most of German High Command’s minds would be “what happens when Hitler dies?”. Who would succeed him? Who could hold it all together? The real answer, in all probability, was ‘noone’. There were three major players: Goering, Goebbels and Himmler. Goering had the army’s support, Himmler had the SS’s support, Goebbels had neither and could therefore be discounted. Unless put into the position before Hitler’s death, Goebbels could never have taken power. The question of leadership would come down to whether the Army or SS held more sway, although this would inevitably lead to a civil war in Germany and the fall of the Reich. As Germany collapsed, Nazi Europe would follow. France, Britain and the Low Countries would very quickly have asserted their independence, and Polish resistance forces would have taken control in much of the East. Pro-Churchill groups would have taken power - probably violently - in Britain, and De Gaulle would have returned to France to portray himself as ‘Liberator’. The Germans in occupied Russia would not survive. Soviet armed forces and insurgents would have very quickly taken power in much of the region, and a revenge en-mass would have taken place, burning German houses and possibly Germans. Some parts of Eastern Europe would have stayed under German control, but mainly as defensive holdouts, rather than actual occupation. Countries such as Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Italy would have seen bloody anti-fascist revolutions, and slowly the New Order would fall apart and Europe would become far more unstable. However, the cold war between East and West would not have happened. The Red Army would not have had the strength to occupy Eastern Europe, so more liberal and democratic - although reactionarily left-wing and anti-fascist - regimes would have taken hold in Europe and would have left a more free Europe than before the war.

Germany and all of Europe would be left scarred and broken, with a military junta in place in what was left of Germany. The USA may have been forced to step in with an equivalent to the Marshall Plan, but anti-soviet efforts would not have been necessary. One day, the Soviet Union would have fallen, but for now we would have what Chamberlain dreamt of: Peace in Our Time.


Thank you for taking the time to read this. This is probably the most in-depth scenario that I’ve ever come up with, so there may be flaws. Please feel free to comment with your thoughts.
 
I was kind of lost at the transition from Lord Halifax to Oswald Mosley: can you elaborate on that?
Lord Halifax would have been the natural successor to Chamberlain in the first instance. However, Mosley was the head of the British Union of Fascists, and so would have been a natural option for a Nazi puppet leader.
 
Halifax would not have surrendered. Why would he? The Royal Navy and RAF are still in tact and the Germans can't get across the channel. At most, I could see a ceasefire and "white peace" where Germany turns East while Britain licks her wounds and continues to rearm. War breaks out again in a few years.

I don't see how you get to a German puppet government...
 
Halifax would not have surrendered. Why would he? The Royal Navy and RAF are still in tact and the Germans can't get across the channel. At most, I could see a ceasefire and "white peace" where Germany turns East while Britain licks her wounds and continues to rearm. War breaks out again in a few years.

I don't see how you get to a German puppet government...

Especially if the suggestion is using the likes of Sinn Fein and the SNP as a springboard, why either those would support a facist government that would be even less likely to offer what they want is puzzling to say the least.
 
) the British elections would have been rigged in favour of pro-German MPs. With figures like Churchill removed from government, the UK would have appeared more and more like a German puppet state - King Edward may even have been recalled from exile and crowned once again as a pro-Nazi puppet monarch for Hitler.
Sorry, this is all quite imposssible. Halifax as PM would move to end the war, but there would be no German troops in Britain, nor would any British government consent to Britain being disarmed.

And there is no way that Germany gets to rig British elections. There would be an election right after the war ended (the last election had been in 1935, so one was due - put off OTL due to the war). The Conservatives had been in a long time, and the people were getting restless. Also Labour had finished regrouping from the early 30s mess with Ramsay Macdonald's split of the party. And of course the disastrous outcome of the war as waged by the Conservatives. Altogether, one would see a Labour victory, perhaps even a landslide - not any sort of fascist surge.

As to the terms of the peace - Gemany's chief demand is that Britain cease all military operations against Germany, including the blockade, and consent to German domination of France, the Low Countries, Denmark, and Norway. Britain would be required to recognize the Pétain regime in France and repudiate De Gaulle; and to withhold any support for the Norwegian and Dutch governments-in-exile if they refuse to accept German terms. (IMO, Germany would be willing to end military occupation of these countries in return for their permanent neutralization and disarmament under German supervision.)

And of course, Britain would be required to recognize the German conquest of Poland, i.e. renounce the original casus belli. (And the annexation of Czechia.)

But Germany is not in a position to dictate terms to Britain. Germany can threaten Britain with destruction by bombing or conquest by invasion, but a threat is very different from its execution. Even Halifax was not so spineless as to think Britain was helpless.

As to the future trend in Britain - the Labour Party would seek to enact a program very similar to what they did in OTL 1945-1950. Big differences would be that Britain had not been damaged in the Blitz, and had suffered far fewer casualties and expenses.

As OTL, there will be a reaction against the more intrusive and inept elements of Labour policy, and a Conservative comeback. But unlike OTL, Conservatives will remain burdened with the onus of the defeat, and will lack the prestige of Churchill-the-victor as leader. (That didn't save them in OTL 1945, but it surely helped later on.) Labour probably wins a second election. The Liberals may see a rise as the opposition to Labour that aren't the loser Tories.


The Labour government would have to deal with India almost immediately. OT1H, Britain would be a defeated country, rather than a victor, OTOH, Britain would not have experienced the humiliations of Singapore and Burma, nor would the Bengal famine have happened yet. I'm not sure how the Congress/Moslem League split was going. In any case, with the war lasting less than a year and not touching Asia, the effect of Congress's anti-war position will be much lessened.

The other big foreign policy question will be the British position when war breaks out between Germany and the USSR. Labourites will want to support the USSR, but anti-Communism and fear of Germany will dominate Conservative thinking, and hardly anyone will want to go to war.
 
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