Peace in 1917?

WI once Russia was out of the war Germany sought a cease fire on the Western front? This thought has always seemed like the perfect chance for Germany to "win" the war. The Western front was too well defended, and staffed and supplied by too far reaching Empires, and no matter how good German troops were they would not reach that all important breakthrough. A cease fire though, peace with Russia the main spoils of war lets the Germans stay happy, and let's the allies save a little face for its Germany asking for the peace and not them.
 
The main probelm I can see with peace in 1917 is that neither side has made enough progress to really win the war, and due to circumstances both sides still think it's possible. With Russia removed from the war Germany thinks it can use the troops freed up from the Eastern Front to deliver a knockout blow to the Entente, while France and Britain are relying on the blockade to wear Germany down and hoping for the arrival of fresh US forces.

Basically, as long as both sides still think they can win the war it's hard to get a peace agreement, especially since after all the bloodshed and loss on both sides the politicians were under a lot of pressure to deliver a victory that would justify the war; making peace at status quo ante or only minor adjustments when the public still believes victory is possible would lead to rioting in the streets.

Thanks to Brest-Litovsk Germany probably has more leeway in making peace for no/minimal gains in the West; they already have plenty of loot from the East. However, the Allies are likely to see a request for a cease-fire as a sign of weakness, which will only make them more inclined to press the attack against Germany.
 
I think you need a pre War POD, where Germany sees Russia as the Main Opponent, and is willing to stand on the Defense in the West.

After Russia leaves the War, Germany would then annouce to France.Britian and the US, it's willingness to Negotiate.

The Allies reject this, but as Germany uses the freed resources to defeat several allied Attacks, [At great cost to the allies] Allied public opinion begins to demand a end to the war.
 
I think you need a pre War POD, where Germany sees Russia as the Main Opponent, and is willing to stand on the Defense in the West.

After Russia leaves the War, Germany would then annouce to France.Britian and the US, it's willingness to Negotiate.

The Allies reject this, but as Germany uses the freed resources to defeat several allied Attacks, [At great cost to the allies] Allied public opinion begins to demand a end to the war.

I utterly disagree. No earlier POD is required for the three years of total war, and hundreds of thousands dead is more then enough to make a change. More importantly you seem to be of the opinion that public opinion is not a powerful weapon in and of itself. The Germans asking for a cease fire may seem like weakness to the generals, but what of the troops in the trenches? Would the average man see the German army asking for peace after knocking out a major world power as a weak nation?

No they would more scared of the half a million German troops coming to the West and attacking them. That is what everyone feared OTL, and only with hindsight do we see that was not really the end all action everyone expected.
 
Germany DID see Russia as the Main Opponent; the plan was to knock out France first so they could focus on fighting Russia. It just didn't work out that way.

Peace probably could not have been achieved in 1917 because if Germany offered a ceasefire, the terms the Entente offered would have been too harsh to contemplate.

I think you need a pre War POD, where Germany sees Russia as the Main Opponent, and is willing to stand on the Defense in the West.

After Russia leaves the War, Germany would then annouce to France.Britian and the US, it's willingness to Negotiate.

The Allies reject this, but as Germany uses the freed resources to defeat several allied Attacks, [At great cost to the allies] Allied public opinion begins to demand a end to the war.
 
Germany DID see Russia as the Main Opponent; the plan was to knock out France first so they could focus on fighting Russia. It just didn't work out that way.

Peace probably could not have been achieved in 1917 because if Germany offered a ceasefire, the terms the Entente offered would have been too harsh to contemplate.

But wouldn't you agree that the position Germany was in around 1917, on paper, would make a cease fire seem tempting? Add to the general attitude of Wilson who wanted peace, of course on his terms, but I could see the US pushing for peace in some way as it has the lowest stake in the war. France may want strict terms but it's not the same situation as in 1919 when the Germans had no supplies to keep fighting long term.
 
I think that the biggest problem was that France would want a return of Alsace-Moselle, with a referendum or independent status as a very minimum, which Germany would never accept, while Germany will want some more land annexion in Belgium/Netherlands, to get a better sea access, like antwerpen, as a minimum by that time, which Uk would never accept, and maybe also some french lands, which the later won't accept.

Basically, I doubt there can be an acceptable compromise.
 
As Chengar Qordath and fhaessig have said I think a peace agreement, at least in the short term, is pretty unlikely. Both sides still thing they can win while the long months of heavy losses have embittered relations. Also the western allies are aware of the danger of leaving Germany in control of such vast territories in the east. Another factor is that all three remaining major western powers are elected democracies. Such states tend to difficult to commit to war but when they do they also go the whole hog and be difficult to deflect. I think the US especially, having decided to join the conflict would be especially unwilling to just abandon it without a more satisfying resolution as well.

However I think its the best approach for a Germany in the historical position having defeated Russia and imposed a B-L peace. Coupled with considerably different internal policies. [I.e. a slight reduction in military production to improve civilian resources, the demobilising of some men and horses from the army and good treatment of the new eastern subjects]. Offer peace on generous terms in the east and let it be known to the army that from this point they are predominantly defending the fatherland.

I would expect the allies would reject the terms and spend a good part of 1918 hammering away at the German defences. Making some progress. However at very heavy losses as they would be facing a much stronger German army fighting from defensive position built up over a long period of time rather than over-exposed after the exhausting 1918 offensive that both sapped their strength and moral.

Think there would be a good chance of the allies will being exhausted before German strength is and a favourable peace [for Germany] being achieved. Say a return to the pre-war borders. There would probably be some degree of cold-war relations but provided Germany didn't make too much of a hash of things in the east it would have a secure and probably prosperous future.

Steve
 
I agree Steve, and I believe that even after the 1918 Spring offensives and their aftermaths, if the German High Command had kept their nerve they could still have got a decent peace out of the Entente.

Both sides were exhausted, the Americans were, with all respect, not a specially effective force, with borrowed equipment and a poor level of training in Western front conditions...certainly no better than the British New Armies had been in 1916.

Basically I believe that the war was going to be won by the side that kept the home front together longest. When Ludendorff lost his nerve in August, the rot spread too fast to stop. Just a smell of weakness was all it took, and it could just as easily been the Entente.

This isn't a variation on the "stab in the back" claptrap, later promoted by the nazis and military in Germany, but a view based on the very real utter exhaustion of all sides in 1918, with morale kept only by total uncompromising commitment to victory by military and civilian leaders.

Lloyd George himself recorded early in 1918 his fears that the war was lost..it wouldn't take much to have tipped the balance.
 
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