Peace Among Nations? An Al Gore Timeline

POD: Pat Buchanan continues his campaign in the year 2000 as a Republican, instead of joining the Reform Party as he does OTL. His campaign secretly leaks the fact that George W. Bush was once arrested for a DUI, six months before the news is released OTL. This forces the primary into a tight three way deadlock, with Pat eventually coming out on top before losing to Al Gore.

Notes: This is my first timeline. I joined just to post this. There may be times when I post something unrealistic or am uninformed. If that happens, please let me know. I would like to grow and learn. I want to know when something I'm writing isn't up to standards.

The Timeline:

Part 1: Election Night

November 7, 2000
11:32 P.M. Eastern Time

“Al Gore, 45th Vice President of the United States, will become the 43rd President of the United States,” the voice of Bernard Shaw announced on national television, “At 32 minutes past eleven o’clock Eastern Time, CNN declares that Al Arnold Gore Jr. will carry Florida and Wisconsin, giving him a total of 283 Electoral Votes and winning him the Presidency…”


The camera now showed footage of ecstatic supporters cheering outside Gore’s headquarters in Nashville, Tennessee as Bernard’s colleague Jim Greenfield’s voice gave commentary. “Amazing scene here in Nashville. With the results coming in from Wisconsin… That is enough to put Al Gore over the top now, and it won’t really matter what happens in Oregon or Colorado. It seems that Al Gore is the next President of the United States.”


“And of course, the interesting thing about this race,” Judy Woodruff added, “This comes after a very heated election cycle. The Clinton administration was rocked with scandal. Al Gore has tried to distance himself from President Clinton, but after early results from several states in the mideast, many thought it would be Pat Buchanan declaring victory tonight.”


Al Gore had done it. He had easily beat out Republican candidate Patrick Buchanan for the Presidency of the United States. It had been a long road to achieving this victory. All those long days on the campaign trail, first in the primary, then in the General Election. Tonight, it was all worth it.


But it very nearly could have ended differently. What if Pat Buchanan hadn’t decided to stay in the Republican race? What if George Bush’s campaign hadn’t been rocked in May by allegations of a past DUI? What if Buchanan’s populist message hadn’t taken root in the south before quickly spreading throughout Blue Collar America? Yes, things could have ended very badly for Gore.


He thought about this, saying a silent prayer to God as he took the stage half an hour later to give his victory speech.


FULL TRANSCRIPT OF AL GORE’S VICTORY SPEECH:

GORE: Good evening. I am proud to be here on this stage tonight, and to say that you made this happen. You made the decision to keep America strong, to keep her prosperous, and to keep her moving forward into the new Millenia. It is the legacy of those who came before us that we inherit now. A legacy of independence, of vigilance, and equality. I am proud to bear the weight of that legacy tonight.


As we go forward into the 21st Century, it is imperative that we uphold America’s great legacy, while evolving and transforming into a modern nation. Joe and I have both worked long and hard over the last eleven months to make that dream a reality. We have visited the heartland of America, from sea to shining sea. And every stop we made, we saw optimism. Hope. I am proud to say that opportunity is still very much alive in these United States of America.


It is time to heal the divide among people, both here and all over the world. Those differences exist in the disparity among races, among genders, among the ruralite and the city dweller, and yes, among Democrats and Republicans. It exists in families, where awkward political conversations are silenced in the fear that another may be offended. It exists in our Universities and our boardrooms, among the private sector and the government.


We did not want this divide to happen. But it has come to us now, and we stare at it, eye to eye. Will we let discrimination, bigotry, hate defeat us? Or will we rise up as one people, one America, one nation made up of many different ideas and races and classes and nationalities, to say, “No, hate. Not here. Not today.”


In order to continue the growth of our country, of our people, we will create new jobs. We will support the working people who make up the families of our nation. Special interest groups shall no longer hold power over the dinner table. We will not give tax cuts to the wealthy. We will support those in need, through healthcare, through education, and through the civil service. That is how we will move America forward.


Almost a century and a half ago, Senator Stephen Douglas told Abraham Lincoln, who had just defeated him for the Presidency, “Partisan feeling must yield to Patriotism.”


In that same spirit, I say to my Republican colleagues… In the Federal government, and in the State houses across America… It is time to end the divide. I will reach my hand across the aisle, and together, we shall bring our nation forward. Our differences must now be put aside. Only together can this nation function. Only together can this nation look to the future.


I want to congratulate Mr. Buchanan on a hard fought race. This evening I have received a call from Pat. He wished me well and congratulated me on my victory. May God bless him and his family. I assured him that in the weeks and months to follow, I will call on him to help bridge the divide between the two parties. I appreciate everything he has done for this country.


I thank you for your love, for your prayers, and for your support. This is the beginning of America’s leap forward, into the future. We are one nation, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. Good night, and God bless America!

Electoral Map:
SPTlsxw.png


Al Gore: 283 Electoral Votes
Pat Buchanan: 254 Electoral Votes
 
Since we've already had quite a few Gore in 2000 TL's I'm curious to see if this thread does something really different from previous ones going forward. The first post just ended with election night, so I'm interested in seeing how @Peacemaker covers Gore's transition, domestic policy, foreign policy, etc.

That said, I find the POD very implausible. The DUI scandal didn't ruin Bush in OTL, although it may have caused him to narrowly lose the popular vote in the general election. That's very different from the primaries where Buchanan enjoyed extremely little establishment or popular support against Bush or McCain. It's more likely that if the DUI charge is leaked during the primaries that McCain would beat Bush and go onto face Gore in the general.
 
Since we've already had quite a few Gore in 2000 TL's I'm curious to see if this thread does something really different from previous ones going forward. The first post just ended with election night, so I'm interested in seeing how @Peacemaker covers Gore's transition, domestic policy, foreign policy, etc.

Hey there! Yes I figured the Gore TL had probably been done a few times. I do think my story will be a unique take. The real story I want to tell will be about the ramifications AFTER his administration, but I figured I should start with Gore. That being said...

That said, I find the POD very implausible. The DUI scandal didn't ruin Bush in OTL, although it may have caused him to narrowly lose the popular vote in the general election. That's very different from the primaries where Buchanan enjoyed extremely little establishment or popular support against Bush or McCain. It's more likely that if the DUI charge is leaked during the primaries that McCain would beat Bush and go onto face Gore in the general.

...I may have needed to begin my TL with the primaries. I didn't because I don't want this to be a Pat Buchanan story. That being said, here is my reasoning for Pat not just winning the primary but also doing fairly well in the General Election:

- Populism was already popular, especially in the southeast, by 2000. Donald Trump has had a cult following since the early 90's. I realize there is little hard data to back up my claim. I do believe that if the "perfect storm" of events occurred, someone running with a populist message could have won pre-2016. When you consider that this populist movement was particularly tied to the religious right in the early 2000's, I think Pat could have done decently well under the right circumstances. Most of the data I used to reach this conclusion comes from Pew research articles around the time of the election. Here are a few sources I used:
http://www.people-press.org/1999/11/11/section-1-the-political-typology/
http://www.people-press.org/2000/09/20/religion-and-politics-the-ambivalent-majority/
https://origins.osu.edu/history-news/patrick-j-buchanan-populist-not-conservative

- Under the right conditions, I believe Donald Trump would have donated to a Pat Buchanan campaign. That is probably hard for most people to believe based on comments from his interview with Meet the Press in 1999, but if Pat denounced the white nationalist ties (which he would have to do to be anywhere near successful on the primary level) and started picking up steam, there is a chance Trump and other conservative or populist donors would try to ride the wave.

- Most importantly is the effect I believe releasing Bush's DUI to the press would have in May. While you are correct that this had very little effect OTL, it's hard to say what would have happened if the news had been released in the primary. That news was released five days before the general election. Republicans were never going to vote for Gore. By November they had no choice but to vote for Bush. McCain could not come at Bush from the right, only from a neoconservative position. Pat could come at him from the right and earn the Christian vote.

- While I don't believe the DUI would push Bush out of the race even in the more religiously charged political environment of 2000, I do think it would be enough to start a very ugly primary between Bush and McCain. We know from OTL how prone McCain is to calling people he disagrees with names (Rand Paul and Trump to name a few). The DUI allegation could have been the spark that lit the fire, while Pat Buchanan sits back and waits for the perfect time to attract a following via the primary debates and the cable news circuits.

All of this being said, I realize the premise may be a little hard for some people to swallow. However; the root of this story will be a Gore presidency and the ramification afterwards. A little sneak peak into what's coming up... Gore's transitional team, cabinet picks, and inauguration day.

Thank you guys for your support. I look forward to getting to know the community here closely.
 
Very nice, doubly so for a first TL. Nice map, well formatted, excellent. Look forward to seeing where you go with this. The value is in the details.
 
November 2000: The Transition Begins


The relative success of Pat Buchanan in the 2000’s election baffled many pundits and pollsters alike. Historians would later credit the “silent majority” of laborers showing up at the polls for his success, as well as the outrage among paleoconservatives and labor unions alike for Bill Clinton’s bipartisan effort to normalize trade with China the year before. None the less, this success on the part of Pat Buchanan was not enough to defeat Al Gore when America went to the ballot box on a chilly November day.


The President-Elect hadn’t had to call Joe that first morning after the election. They’d watched the election results come in together the night before from the campaign headquarters, and the next morning, they enjoyed an early breakfast from Gore’s Nashville mansion, where Gore had asked Joe to help head his transitional team. Joe had quickly agreed. It was going to be a busy next few months, between transitioning and Gore continuing his work as a lame duck Vice President for President Clinton.

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It was a new day in American politics, and Al Gore was on top of the world. At a high level meeting with his transition team on November 10th, President-Elect Gore made it a point to let his team know that what he had informed his top level campaign staffers of before the election was just as true now as it had been then: Gore didn’t want any holdovers from the Clinton administration at the cabinet level. He was his own man, and he was determined to be known as such.


The team had mobilized quickly, with much of the planning for the team having been completed as early as August. With the election over, now the team could get to work. It quickly became apparent in the days after the election that the transition team would be led by two men: the Vice President-Elect, as well as Gore’s long time friend and former US Representative Thomas Downey.


So here Gore was on November 10th, the Friday after the election, in the thick of planning from the Transition Headquarters in DC. Today’s agenda involved calls to and from foreign leaders throughout the world, a typical first task for any President-Elect. Most of these foreign talks were broad, open ended, and high level. Subjects discussed included Al Gore’s commitment to fulfilling the Kyoto protocol, as well as the subject of setting up a global intelligence network to combat terrorism like the kind that had affected the USS Cole earlier that year.


The Gore transition team itself operated much like a well oiled machine. A total of three buildings made up their operations. One was provided by the GSA, a high tech building with key card entry, located at 1800 G St., N.W. The second was located in downtown Washington, and was a favorite location of the Vice President-Elect. The third building was a satellite office in Virginia which was mostly empty now but would undoubtedly be used more as the staff of the transition team grew; it was the staff’s original location.


Despite the quick growth of the team, there was some tension behind the scenes as Thomas Downey and the VP-Elect learned to work with each other. Later inside accounts from members of the staff would reveal that the two had trouble working together at first, but eventually learned to respect one another with the help of the President-Elect.


On November 13th, VP-Elect Lieberman was joined by the head of the GSA to give several members of the media a tour of the high tech transitional offices. Below are selected excerpts from the press conference that followed.

QUESTION: When do you expect to see the first nominations come out?


LIEBERMAN: Soon. Very soon. I can tell you that it’s coming soon. We’re talking to people in both parties, and we’ve got our eyes on some very special people.


QUESTION: How do you plan to reach out to Republicans as you begin the process? And does the president-elect plan to hold a press conference any time soon?


LIEBERMAN: Oh, we’ve already begun. We’re talking to Democrats, we’re talking to Republicans. The President has reached out to Mr. Buchanan and would like to meet with him soon, very soon, to get his input on some key issues.


And yes, you will likely hear from the President-Elect very soon, maybe later this week or next week.


QUESTION: Some members of your own party would suggest that you’re giving into Republican demands by offering to collaborate with Republican leaders.


LIEBERMAN: Why? I really don’t understand why people say that. Yes, we are all Republicans and Democrats and Independents, but at the end of the day, we’re also Americans. We’re Americans first. I think that’s something that gets forgotten far too often.


You know, Pat and the President-Elect have some really similar views on a lot of issues. They’re both men of the people, who are opposed to the special interests, opposed to a lot of what has been happening in Washington lately. So, I would say, I think you can expect the President-Elect to be calling on several leaders in both parties to bring about change.


QUESTION: Senator, several members of the press have been speculating that James Johnson or Dick Holbrooke are likely contenders for cabinet-level positions. Do you care to comment?


LIEBERMAN: I’m rather impressed! You guys seem to know more than I do.


[Laughter]


LIEBERMAN: Look guys, here’s the deal. There are a lot of people we have to vet, a lot of high ranking government officials in some cases, or members of the private sector, and we have to look at these people and ask, can they get the job done? Can they easily get past the clearance process first, and then the confirmation hearings in January? So, we’re looking at a lot of people, including those individuals you mentioned.


QUESTION: Senator, in order to become Vice President, you will have to resign your Senate seat before Inauguration Day. Many are speculating that this will tip the Senate to the Republican side, as Governor Rowland, from your home state, is expected to nominate someone from his own party to fill your post. Is the President-Elect worried that he may be dealing with a Republican controlled Congress?


LIEBERMAN: We’ll just have to cross that bridge when we come to it, won’t we?

[Laughter]

No, we’re not worried. The American people elected a Democratic President, and we will go to work for the American people. If that means reaching across the aisle and working with Republicans to create change, that’s what we’ll do.

On November 14th, a full week after the election, the first cabinet selection was announced.

The following is an excerpt from an article published by foreign newspaper The Independent on the same day:

GORE CHOOSES DOWNEY AS CHIEF OF STAFF


In an unexpected move, Gore chose former U.S. Representative Thomas Downey as his Chief of Staff on Tuesday, a week after Gore was elected the next President of the United States. Many expected this position would go to the President-Elect’s former campaign chair Bill Daley. This move comes just days after Gore made Thomas Downey the co-chair of his Transition Team, where he serves alongside the Vice President-Elect, Joe Lieberman. This marks Gore’s first major public decision since the election.


Thomas Downey and Al Gore have reportedly been close since the late 1970’s, when Al Gore was elected to represent Tennessee’s 4th District in the US House of Representatives. Both long time members of the Democratic Party, Gore and Downey’s politics have often looked similar. Now, over twenty years later, they will be working again, this time in the White House.


In his capacity as Chief of Staff, one of Downey’s primary roles will be to help guide and advise the president, ensuring that his agenda does not become weighed down by politics. However; the move has already caused some vocal concern among Republicans, who worry that Mr. Gore’s choice is far too much to the left, just days after Gore spoke of wanting to heal the divide between the two parties after a bitter election cycle. Most of Downey’s legislation in Congress centered on social programs such as Social Security and Unemployment Insurance. Downey will have to play politics if he expects to get much done in a Republican controlled Congress.

On November 17th, it was announced that Al Gore was considering Carl Levin for the role of Secretary of Defense.
 
If the GOP ran Buchanan then the Democrats would have won bigger in the Senate, and they would've narrowly taken the House of Representatives.
 
Electoral Map:
SPTlsxw.png


Al Gore: 283 Electoral Votes
Pat Buchanan: 254 Electoral Votes

Why did Gore pickup Virginia and Colorado? The margins of victory they gave for Bush, was Virginia, 8.04% and Colorado, 8.36%.

The Republican states that were closer for Gore in 2000, were
  1. Florida, 0.0092% (tipping point state) (Which you flipped)
  2. New Hampshire, 1.27% (Still R)
  3. Missouri, 3.34%
  4. Ohio, 3.51%
  5. Nevada, 3.55% (Which you have flip)
  6. Tennessee, 3.86%
  7. Arkansas, 5.44%
  8. Arizona, 6.29%
  9. West Virginia, 6.32%
  10. Louisiana, 7.68%
And you also have Iowa tipping into R (0.31% margin OTL) and Illinois (which isn't even on the state tipping points list)

While Buchanan could turnout some areas more, and depress GOP turnout in others, it doesn't really seem consistent. It seems more like you are applying future Democrat gains in Virginia, Nevada and Colorado backwards, even when it doesn't make sense. Clinton never got Virginia in either of his elections, and only got Colorado in 1992 with a third party spoiler. And I have no idea why Illinois is flipping R.
 
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