For sake of argument, lets assume that a complete or near complete capture of the British Expeditionary Force by the Germans (no halt order on May 23rd?) leads to a different resolution of the War cabinet crisis in May 1940, and as consequence the British seek armistice terms, and eventual peace negotiations with Germany within the next month or two.
Regardless of how plausible you believe the above scenario is - I think most people can agree on two things:
1) that any peace worked out with the Germans will be signed by the British with the understanding that Nazi Germany's word means nothing - and as such, a non-negotiable condition of the British will be that any peace agreement cannot limit the United Kingdom's ability to rearm. Additionally, (with the possible exception of a few colonial possessions that would be difficult to defend like Malta or British Somaliland), there will be zero cessation of British territory to Germany or Italy (assuming they join the war before an armistice is signed). In short, the British will only seriously entertain peace with Germany if they believe it leaves them in a stronger position than continuing the war would.
Given that Russia was always the big prize for Hitler, Germany can probably be amenable to this sort of peace.
2) Nazi Germany's dominant position on the continent will be viewed as a long term threat to British security, and as such many of the leading political figures in Britain would be perfectly willing to re-enter the war at an opportune moment to defeat Germany, provided they can find a sufficient pretext or marshal enough support for the moment.
As such, I ask the question: When would the United Kingdom rejoin WWII, if at all?
I've currently thought of two moments that offer the most promise.
First, the Italian invasion of Greece could trigger British re-entry. The United Kingdom had extended a guarantee of Independence to Greece, similar to the one they had extended to Poland, after Italy had invaded Albania. Unlike Romania, at no point did Greece renege this guarantee. With Italy either participating in the War against the UK and France for only a few weeks, or not at all in this scenario, it seems unlikely they will come away with many spoils - as such the Italian motivations for attacking Greece are arguably even greater than OTL. That being said, it is sort of up in the air if Italy would be willing to risk war with the United Kingdom over Greece or not. Italy might not be bold enough to attack Greece with a British guarantee, so instead might just do nothing or attack someone else (Yugoslavia).
The Second, and more obvious moment, would be some time after the German invasion of the Soviet Union. With Germany's forces tied down in the East, the British might attempt to re-establish a Western front, attack peripheral Nazi possessions, or start a bombing campaign against German industry. It might depend on the specific Prime Minister as to if this re-entry would occur sooner (when there's still a lot of fighting to do) or later (when Germany is clearly beaten and on the ropes)
Something to potentially consider is that the United Kingdom would probably have elections in late 1940 that could lead to a different British government and shakeup in party leaderships. If Italy makes a move on Greece on a similar time table to OTL, it will coincide almost exactly with the British election in 1940, which complicates things.
Any thoughts or feedback?
Regardless of how plausible you believe the above scenario is - I think most people can agree on two things:
1) that any peace worked out with the Germans will be signed by the British with the understanding that Nazi Germany's word means nothing - and as such, a non-negotiable condition of the British will be that any peace agreement cannot limit the United Kingdom's ability to rearm. Additionally, (with the possible exception of a few colonial possessions that would be difficult to defend like Malta or British Somaliland), there will be zero cessation of British territory to Germany or Italy (assuming they join the war before an armistice is signed). In short, the British will only seriously entertain peace with Germany if they believe it leaves them in a stronger position than continuing the war would.
Given that Russia was always the big prize for Hitler, Germany can probably be amenable to this sort of peace.
2) Nazi Germany's dominant position on the continent will be viewed as a long term threat to British security, and as such many of the leading political figures in Britain would be perfectly willing to re-enter the war at an opportune moment to defeat Germany, provided they can find a sufficient pretext or marshal enough support for the moment.
As such, I ask the question: When would the United Kingdom rejoin WWII, if at all?
I've currently thought of two moments that offer the most promise.
First, the Italian invasion of Greece could trigger British re-entry. The United Kingdom had extended a guarantee of Independence to Greece, similar to the one they had extended to Poland, after Italy had invaded Albania. Unlike Romania, at no point did Greece renege this guarantee. With Italy either participating in the War against the UK and France for only a few weeks, or not at all in this scenario, it seems unlikely they will come away with many spoils - as such the Italian motivations for attacking Greece are arguably even greater than OTL. That being said, it is sort of up in the air if Italy would be willing to risk war with the United Kingdom over Greece or not. Italy might not be bold enough to attack Greece with a British guarantee, so instead might just do nothing or attack someone else (Yugoslavia).
The Second, and more obvious moment, would be some time after the German invasion of the Soviet Union. With Germany's forces tied down in the East, the British might attempt to re-establish a Western front, attack peripheral Nazi possessions, or start a bombing campaign against German industry. It might depend on the specific Prime Minister as to if this re-entry would occur sooner (when there's still a lot of fighting to do) or later (when Germany is clearly beaten and on the ropes)
Something to potentially consider is that the United Kingdom would probably have elections in late 1940 that could lead to a different British government and shakeup in party leaderships. If Italy makes a move on Greece on a similar time table to OTL, it will coincide almost exactly with the British election in 1940, which complicates things.
Any thoughts or feedback?
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