alternatehistory.com

Despite the widespread popularity of President James Madison, Secretary Monroe, and the feeling of victory that followed the end of the War of 1812, not all was so perfect. Virginia had her men occupy the Presidency 24 out of 28 years by the time the 1816 was rolling around. Even without formally declaring his candidacy, William Crawford, who was Madison's French Ambassador during the war and twice a cabinet member after it, polled 54 congressional caucus votes to Monroe's 65. He would just need 6 defections and he could end up as the Republican nominee.

What I want to ask is not one, but a few questions:

1.) If the nomination were closer, say 61 for the Georgian and 60 for the Virginian, or vice-versa, could we get a split Republican field going into 1816? An earlier party split based on Monroenian and Crafordian (sic?) beliefs?

2.) If Monroe is chosen, and Crawford supporters feel the nomination was stolen or some such, could we seem another Republican take up the Federalist mantle for President? DeWitt Clinton's candidacy did fairly well only 4 years ago, and the Federalists had no real other options by that point, most didn't even bother to show up and nominate Rufus King that year!

3.) If Crawford were chosen, and Monroe doesn't contest it, how would his two terms end up? I say two because the Federalists were a basketcase and the prospect of a Presidential challenger seems unlikely.
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