PC & WI: Trotskyist 'wave' starts WWII

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
This is admittedly a pretty broad brush question, so just contribute what you care to.

Let's say Trotsky or Ivan Nikitich Smirnov become top dog in the aftermath of the Russian revolution or even in the interbellum period, or at least the 'revolution in one country' policy loses out completely (and preferably fast) and stays that way. Can Russia save the Hungarian Soviet Republic? The Slovak Soviet Republic? A Soviet victory in the Polish-Soviet War? Successfully support Hungary in occupying all the territory it claimed? The Bavarian/Munich Soviet Republic?! A red Germany?

Which of these goals could it realistically achieve after WWI or in an interbellum period? Which were a long shot, but still possible? Include 'hows' if you can. If Trotskyist dominance occurs later, will there be other opportunities for communist expansion and what would they likely be? What would be the tripwire event where the Western allies said enough was enough and fought another war? How would you see the rest of the 20th century shaping out as a consequence of such a war?
 

MSZ

Banned
The Hungarian Soviet Republic, Slovak Soviet Republic, Bavarian Soviet Republic and Polish-Soviet War were all finished before the end of the revolution, so there is zero chance that any of that changes with Trotsky getting power after the RCW. Even if he was to get power earlier (say, Lenin suffers a stroke earlier), even that won't really make the Soviets more effective - Trotsky's 'war communism' probably having more people turn against the bolsheviks than any of his supposed magnificent organizational skills could get him to support them.

Now, some kind of 'Red Alert' scenario occuring in the late 20's or 30's with Trotsky as leader is more likely to happen than with Stalin in charge. So a "Second Polish-Soviet War", the Red Army making it so far as Slovakia and declaring it a Soviet Republic (same in Hungary) is somewhat likely. But it is even more likely that it would help form a pan-european alliance against him, with Germany using it as an opportunity to reverse the Versailles and remilitarize, The French and ritish jumping in to save their colonies and prevent Germany from growing too strong in the aftermath or to fall to the communists. So yes, a 'Red Alert' scenario, only with the USSR losing after a long and bloody conflict.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
1. The Bavarian, Slovak and Hungarian Soviet Republics were gone long before someone had even said the words "Revolution in One Country".
2. Since Trotskyism was way more aggressive outwards than Stalinism, the USSR going berserk is more likely with a Trotskyist government.
3. If they do they'd soon face an alliance of Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Poland. They won't win.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
In any case, which of those Soviet Republics, etc. could Russia have feasibly pulled off if they were given a higher priority? Or is it pie in the sky for Russia to worry about pulling stuff like that off until 1922 or later? There's also the possibility of an earlier end to the RCW.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
None, Russia was too busy with internal affairs. They could probably have annexed Poland in the Polish/ Soviet war and then probably the Baltic States and maybe Finland. But that would already prompt the West to build a strong alliance against them (and interestingly enough probably start to strengthen Germany out of fear that they might fall to Communism).
 
Trotsky never would've taken power in time to stop the failed October 1923 uprising in Germany - although the policy of the KPD would be different from 1925 or so onward.

You'd see Trotsky probably intervening, politically or militarily, in the 1927 Shanghai commune, and maybe he'd be able to put the KPD in a position by 1932 or 33 to put up a bit of a fight against the Nazis, but it's doubtful to say they'd win. The first OTL conflict he'd be heavily involved in would be the Spanish Civil War, but given that Trotsky wanted no part of the popular front (the government that preceded the civil war IOTL), it's hard to say that the butterflies wouldn't have totally changed the scenario by that point.

The problem is, Trotsky would have had the Communist Parties in every country in Europe act very differently (much less the CPSU!). Without a pretty thorough investigation, it's hard to say exactly what effect it would've had in every case.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
On a related note, what's the fastest you guys think the Russian revolution and civil war can be resolved in favour of the Bolsheviks and when's the most opportune time for it to happen?
 

MSZ

Banned
On a related note, what's the fastest you guys think the Russian revolution and civil war can be resolved in favour of the Bolsheviks and when's the most opportune time for it to happen?

If you could get some kind of Red Army detachment to take control of the Siberian rail rather than the Czechoslovak legion, that would substantially shorten the war in Asia, as the bolsheviks would not have to waste time reclaiming it. Also Kolchak's support coming through it wouldn't arrive. I imagine you could possibly shorten in by a year or two (so to 1921 or even 1920) depending on how much the Japanese would want to hold out in Outer Manchuria.

In Europe, you could again possibly shorten it by a few months if in 1920 the bolsheviks decided to eliminate the whites in Crimea before going after the Poles. If Lenin ignored them taking Kiev in summer, he could keep on pushing south and be done with them maybe quicker.
 
Top