The Deluge in Poland and Lithuania, which was a crisis period extending from the early 1650's to the early 1660's, saw the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be invaded on all sides by Sweden, Russia, the Cossacks, Brandenburg (to a small extent), and the Duke of Transylvania. There were also some Lithuanian separatists. Some well-timed tactical victories by Poland and distractions by the occupying powers (such as Sweden getting embroiled in a war with Denmark in the middle of it) saved the Commonwealth from utter collapse.
But what if the Commonwealth was destroyed during this time period, and partitioned by these invading powers? How likely was this?
The Treaty of Radnot (1656), for reference, allocated:
-Ducal Prussia, Masovia, Samogitia, and Inflanty (Livonia) to Sweden
-Greater Poland to Brandenburg
-Lithuania as a Swedish vassal (which could foment future conflicts with Russia)
-Podolia and Volhynia to the Cossacks
-Lesser Poland to the Transylvanian Duke, George II Rakoczi
What would have been the effects of an earlier "partition of the white eagle"?
 
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PLC fully destroyed by this point seems a bit unlikely. Habsburgs have to join the party (IOTL they were PLC's main allies during Deluge). Perhaps John Casimir dies in exile in Silesia and Leopold claims Polish throne for himself and manage to take control over part of the country?
 
The Deluge in Poland and Lithuania, which was a crisis period extending from the early 1650's to the early 1660's, saw the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth be invaded on all sides by Sweden, Russia, the Cossacks, Brandenburg (to a small extent), and the Duke of Transylvania. There were also some Lithuanian separatists. Some well-timed tactical victories by Poland and distractions by the occupying powers (such as Sweden getting embroiled in a war with Denmark in the middle of it) saved the Commonwealth from utter collapse.
But what if the Commonwealth was destroyed during this time period, and partitioned by these invading powers? How likely was this?
The Treaty of Radnot (1656), for reference, allocated:
-Ducal Prussia, Masovia, Samogitia, and Inflanty (Livonia) to Sweden
-Greater Poland to Brandenburg
-Lithuania as a Swedish vassal (which could foment future conflicts with Russia)
-Podolia and Volhynia to the Cossacks
-Lesser Poland to the Transylvanian Duke, George II Rakoczi
What would have been the effects of an earlier "partition of the white eagle"?

Ducal Prussia would become a Swedish Vassal but still under the rule of the Hohenzollern, Brandenburg would also receive Ermland (which would be integrated into Ducal Prussia).
I suspect that the Swedes would annex Royal Prussia (the Polish Corridor).

So here's my thought Sweden would start a force conversion of their territories to Lutheranism, through they would likely extend tolerance to the Reformed/Calvinists. I suspect it would be pretty easy in the Roman Catholic areas, but it would likely be far harder in the Greek Catholic and Orthodox areas. I suspect Royal Prussia will become majority German speaking. Lithuania as it become converted will likely end up funding the Swedish state.

The Elector of Brandenburg would be a a vassal of the German Emperor in his HRE territories, a Swedish vassal in Ducal Prussia and a sovereign Prince in Greater Poland (where his precise title would be unclear, I'm not sure what the title High Duke, which the dukes of Greater Poland has used was, maybe it would simply be translated as Grand Duke). He would begin to convert the people of Greater Poland and Ermland to Calvinism and Lutheranism and settle Protestants in his new territories. The result could either be that the Poles of Greater Poland became Protestants or that Germans would end up the majority. A interesting fact would be that instead of Prussia, the Electors of Brandenburg would likely end up being "König in Grosspolen" instead of being "König in Preussen". A major goal for the Hohenzollern would likely be to end their vassalage to Sweden in Ducal Prussia and gaining Royal Prussia (maybe in alliance with the Transylavian which could go after Masovia).

No idea how a cossack state would end up.

The Duke of Transylvania would likely be crowned Polish king, he would favour Calvinism, but likely set up a large degree of tolerance as already existed in Transylvania for all Christians. In the longer term he and his successors would likely turn against their Ottoman overlord, and I could see them replacing Poland at Vienna, they could use the following war to expand and gain control over the Romanian Principalities and the trans-Danubian Ottoman territories. The results would be a new Poland which was pretty much made up of Austrian 3rd Partition Polish territories and Interbellum Romania, of course such a kingdom would likely expand south as the Ottomans weakens, it would be ironic to have a Poland without Warsaw but with Constantinoble.

As a POD for why Denmark doesn't enter the war, I would say Frederick III of Denmark falling down a bunch of stairs in 1656. Thsi would leave Denmark under a regency council unwilling to start a war.
 

raharris1973

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The Treaty of Radnot (1656), for reference, allocated:
-Ducal Prussia, Masovia, Samogitia, and Inflanty (Livonia) to Sweden
-Greater Poland to Brandenburg
-Lithuania as a Swedish vassal (which could foment future conflicts with Russia)
-Podolia and Volhynia to the Cossacks
-Lesser Poland to the Transylvanian Duke, George II Rakoczi
What would have been the effects of an earlier "partition of the white eagle"?


Why no territory for Muscovy? Weren't Muscovite troops involved? Or were they exerting influence/making gains through Cossack "clients"?
 
Why no territory for Muscovy? Weren't Muscovite troops involved? Or were they exerting influence/making gains through Cossack "clients"?
I guess they were nibbling some corners in Belarus, after capturing Smolensk. But the Swedes were quicker in sweeping the Lithuanians into their circle. Presumably, this was what led to the Russo-Swedish War (1656-58) in the fray of the fighting, weakening Sweden and allowing the Poles some breathing space. A grave mistake on the Russians' part.
But yeah, Russia was conquering by proxy through the Cossacks.
 
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raharris1973

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I guess they were nibbling some corners in Belarus, after capturing Smolensk. But the Swedes were quicker in sweeping the Lithuanians into their circle. Presumably, this was what led to the Russo-Swedish War (1656-58) in the fray of the fighting, weakening Sweden and allowing the Poles some breathing space. A grave mistake on the Russians' part.
But yeah, Russia was conquering by proxy through the Cossacks.

Another odd thing about the proposed territory, it adds Greater Poland, ie the Poznan area, to Brandenburg and its possessions in Pomerania. But it does not provide land contiguity with East Prussia, which was also under brandenburgian sovereignty at the time.

That’s because Royal Prussia in between, including Gdańsk and the Vistula estuary, was assigned to Sweden.
 
I mean fall one of the world greatest republic who mean lot of political divergence from OTL.

I mean whole political schools that born in PLC won't exist anymore, I mean we definitely won't have Aureumism
 
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TruthfulPanda

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Actually Muscovy occupied most of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania at that time, e.g. Wilno was in Muscovite hands from 1654 to 1660.
Part of the deal between Lithuanian elites accepting Swedish rule in 1655 was for Sweden to fight Muscovy.
See dark green areas - Muscovite/Cossak control:
800px-Rzeczpospolita_Potop.png
 

raharris1973

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Actually Muscovy occupied most of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania at that time, e.g. Wilno was in Muscovite hands from 1654 to 1660.
Part of the deal between Lithuanian elites accepting Swedish rule in 1655 was for Sweden to fight Muscovy.
See dark green areas - Muscovite/Cossak control:
800px-Rzeczpospolita_Potop.png

Wow, at its height this Muscovite occupation had encompassed almost all of the old historic Kievan Russian lands!
 

TruthfulPanda

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Indeed.
It was this wonderful performance by John Casimir (loss of Mandate of Heaven) that made so many of PLC nobility be wellcoming of the Swedes in 1655.
 

raharris1973

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Indeed.
It was this wonderful performance by John Casimir (loss of Mandate of Heaven) that made so many of PLC nobility be wellcoming of the Swedes in 1655.

Oh so the Polish King lost two thirds of his kingdoms land area to Cossacks before the Swedes even got involved?
 
Oh so the Polish King lost two thirds of his kingdoms land area to Cossacks before the Swedes even got involved?
Not to Cossacks, to Cossacks and Russians. it was result of lunacy of king Władysław IV and his advisors, who wanted to conquer Ottoman Empire and liberate Constantinopole. Władysłwa IV himself armed Cossacks for war, that never started, spending dowry of his second wife.
 

raharris1973

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Could the the Ottomans and PLC agreed on a common acceptable border and be perpetual allies instead of OTLs off and on struggles?
 
Could the the Ottomans and PLC agreed on a common acceptable border and be perpetual allies instead of OTLs off and on struggles?
Poland-Lithuania wants access to the Black Sea, while the Ottoman Empire wants a land border with the Crimean Khanate. It seems like a conflict of interest.
 

raharris1973

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Poland-Lithuania wants access to the Black Sea, while the Ottoman Empire wants a land border with the Crimean Khanate. It seems like a conflict of interest.

Sure, but if a neutral Hungary could plausibly happen, so could this. One of the sides just needs somewhat curbed ambition or several higher priority items ahead of controlling the northwest Black Sea Coast. When Poland got weaker, in the 18th it became de facto Ottoman ally.
 
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