PC/WI: The Novogorod Republic survives?

The easiest route would be having the Golden Horde never decline (no Timur?), preventing the breakaway of Muscovy. After Muscovy starts rising (especially under Ivan III), it becomes increasingly difficult for the prince-borrowing republic to survive.
Concerning culture, if Novgorod never declines, perhaps there would be a split between the southern, "tatar-ized" slavs and the northern, more nordic/baltic-oriented novgorodian slavs.
EDIT: found this little mishap by the novgorodians (the numbers may have been obviously manipulated, but i still think the novgorodians had a chance here):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Shelon
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The easiest route would be having the Golden Horde never decline (no Timur?), preventing the breakaway of Muscovy. After Muscovy starts rising (especially under Ivan III), it becomes increasingly difficult for the prince-borrowing republic to survive.
Concerning culture, if Novgorod never declines, perhaps there would be a split between the southern, "tatar-ized" slavs and the northern, more nordic/baltic-oriented novgorodian slavs.
EDIT: found this little mishap by the novgorodians (the numbers may have been obviously manipulated, but i still think the novgorodians had a chance here):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Shelon
So, would simply having the Novgorodians win at the Battle of Shelon be enough for this?

Also, in regards to your point about a Slavic split, could we see eventually see four East Slavic ethnic groups develop in this TL--Ukrainians, Belarusians, Novgorodians, and (Great) Russians?
 
So, would simply having the Novgorodians win at the Battle of Shelon be enough for this?

Also, in regards to your point about a Slavic split, could we see eventually see four East Slavic ethnic groups develop in this TL--Ukrainians, Belarusians, Novgorodians, and (Great) Russians?
Well, first, i'm unsure of how decisive the battle was. It could have been just a fluke, maybe the muscovites would come back to bite the novgorodians in the ass later anyway. The novgorodians could call the Swedes for help, but that would require something in return.

Second, i hear that the novgorodians still had a lot of similarities with the southern muscovites as they were, after all, ethnically russian. The novgorodians had their own dialect of russian, but it was only a dialect and not a fully different language. What i expect here is more of a governmental/political split rather than a cultural one, albeit the novgorodians could, still, start seeing the muscovites as "backwards southerners". That is, if the novgorodians don't go through a decline.

Again, i warn that Russia isn't a historical area i dominate, but i trust my sources.
 
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There was a similar thread recently, asking about a separate Novgorodian cultural / ethnic identity.
What I said there applies in good measure here, too:
Screw Muscovy through internal strife of the Zalesye principalities and Lithuanian meddling, prevent the rise of one big centralised super-principality there at least during the 15th and 16th century. Maintain control over Vologda and Cherdyn this way.
Have some archbishop of Novgorod step up higher education efforts, maybe inviting some Greek refugees after 1453 to come there instead of going to Zalesye.
That should create a) a distinct cultural identity which would foster political stress on remaining separate and b) provide enough impulses for modernisation efforts, which would really be necessary in order to continue existing into the present. Most of all, allow those dwelling on peripheral, colonised lands to climb the social ladder and participate in the Republic`s leadership.
 
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