PC/WI: Successful Rhineland Revolution in 1848

Inspired somewhat by this old Victoria 2 AAR, I was wondering what the plausibility and consequences of a successful, largely socialistic, revolution in the Rhineland during the 1848 Revolutions? Obviously the AAR isn't a very realistic account of 19th Century politics, and its main PoD, Weydemeyer defecting to the rebels along with the forces under his command, isn't likely to work given that he had already resigned from the Prussian army four years earlier, and even if he had stayed his well-known political views would have meant that he wouldn't have been promoted to a high enough position, or have been trusted to put down a radical uprising if he had been.

An alternative PoD might be to have the revolution in Belgium succeed. IOTL the revolutionaries in the Rhineland attempted to purchase arms from Belgium, but were blocked from doing so. With a more friendly government in power arms should be easier to come by, as well as the possibility for some sort of military alliance. With a better armed force, and a lot of luck, the revolutionaries might be able to win a decent battle against the Prussian army and advance into Westphalia. Then have an outside power (possibly France or Britain) throw their support behind the revolutionaries as part of a divide and rule foreign policy against Prussia. This then forces the Prussians to the table.

One consequence of a successful revolution in the Rhineland is that the revolution would likely be socialistic in nature. Unlike much of Germany at the time, which was still fairly agrarian, the Rhineland was fairly industrialised and proletarian. In addition many of those active in the revolution there were active socialists, such as Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels and August Willich. The more radical character of the revolution in the Rhineland was one of the main reasons that the bourgeoisie and petite-bourgeoisie began to turn against it.

I also imagine that the Rhenish revolutionaries would probably try to link up with the uprising in the neighbouring Palatine, possibly incorporating it into their republic.

The loss of the Rhineland province, and possibly part of Westphalia if the rebels manage to roll enough 6s, would be very damaging to Prussia, which could spell the beginning of a decline in their fortunes as the rising power in Germany.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
Inspired somewhat by this old Victoria 2 AAR, I was wondering what the plausibility and consequences of a successful, largely socialistic, revolution in the Rhineland during the 1848 Revolutions? Obviously the AAR isn't a very realistic account of 19th Century politics, and its main PoD, Weydemeyer defecting to the rebels along with the forces under his command, isn't likely to work given that he had already resigned from the Prussian army four years earlier, and even if he had stayed his well-known political views would have meant that he wouldn't have been promoted to a high enough position, or have been trusted to put down a radical uprising is he had been.

An alternative PoD might be to have the revolution in Belgium succeed. IOTL the revolutionaries in the Rhineland attempted to purchase arms from Belgium, but were blocked from doing so. With a more friendly government in power arms should be easier to come by, as well as the possibility for some sort of military alliance. With a better armed force, and a lot of luck, the revolutionaries might be able to win a decent battle against the Prussian army and advance into Westphalia. Then have an outside power (possibly France or Britain) throw their support behind the revolutionaries as part of a divide and rule foreign policy against Prussia. This then forces the Prussians to the table.

One consequence of a successful revolution in the Rhineland is that the revolution would likely be socialistic in nature. Unlike much of Germany at the time, which was still fairly agrarian, the Rhineland was fairly industrialised and proletarian. In addition many of those active in the revolution there were active socialists, such as Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels and August Willich. The more radical character of the revolution in the Rhineland was one of the main reasons that the bourgeoisie and petite-bourgeoisie began to turn against it.

I also imagine that the Rhenish revolutionaries would probably try to link up with the uprising in the neighbouring Palatine, possibly incorporating it into their republic.

The loss of the Rhineland province, and possibly part of Westphalia if the rebels manage to roll enough 6s, would be very damaging to Prussia, which could spell the beginning of a decline in their fortunes as the rising power in Germany.
Completely agreed that the loss of the Rhineland will severely weaken Prussia--especially if this new independent Rhineland state also acquires the Ruhr. Indeed, without either the Rhineland or the Ruhr, Prussia's chances to ever unify Germany under its own rule would probably fall to a near-zero level!
 

Bytor

Monthly Donor
Then have an outside power (possibly France or Britain) throw their support behind the revolutionaries as part of a divide and rule foreign policy against Prussia. This then forces the Prussians to the table.

Britain, with it's backing away from influence on the continent since about 1818 or so is unlikely to be that power, but if you can delay things long enough for Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte to be elected president of the Second French Republic in in December 1848, that might do it.
 
Britain, with it's backing away from influence on the continent since about 1818 or so is unlikely to be that power, but if you can delay things long enough for Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte to be elected president of the Second French Republic in in December 1848, that might do it.
Well as I understand it the Rhinelanders were still holding out by 1849 IOTL, so that shouldn't be too much of a problem. The only issue is, would Bonaparte be willing to prop-up a radical socialist republic? Given that he rose to power in the aftermath of a similar uprising being crushed, as well as his own dictatorial ambitions, he'd be just as likely to invade and claim the Rhineland as part of France. Considering the fact that he was deliberately trying to draw parallels between himself and the original Napoleon reestablishing direct French control over the Rhineland could be seen as a way of boosting his support and legitimacy.
 
A thought occurs. In the aftermath of the failed 1848 revolutions vast numbers of political refugees and political dissidents fled abroad, in particular to the US. These migrants, particularly the Germans, played a significant role in the founding of the Republican Party, the establishment of trade unionism, and were some of the most loyal supporters of the Union during the civil war. If at least a part of Germany was able to succeed as a revolutionary state then I can see a good chunk of the German, and maybe even a few of the radical French, Italian and Hungarian dissidents settling in the Rhineland instead of abroad.

The consequences of this could include:
  • A massive population boom in the Rhineland
  • Delaying the onset of the American Civil War
  • Delaying the onset of trade unionism
  • Earlier prohibition, due to the role that German-Americans played in the American alcohol industry
 
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Bytor

Monthly Donor
The only issue is, would Bonaparte be willing to prop-up a radical socialist republic?

Well he did overthrow the short-lived Second Republic nominally because they voted away universal (male) suffrage, something which he gave back on creating the Second Empire. While he may have been trying to bring back imperial glory, he almost always played his cards so as to be able to use his "street cred" of being a nationalist revolutionary, especially when it comes to Italy. I totally think he'd go for it since, 1) it would bolster that street cred back home, and 2) because it would be a sly "screw you" to Prussian interests by being able to let French industry sell to rebels in Cologne while being able to diplomatically wash his hands of it, which would 3) let him influence Britain & Russia to tell Prussia to back off doing anything to France.
 
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