PC/WI: Successful Italian Wars, France acquires Milan and Naples

Is it possible for the main early modern french kings (Charles VIII, Louis XII, or Francis I) to effectively hold their gains in Italy, especially Naples and Milan, without succumbing to their enemies?
If so, then which PoD is best for this? Charles VIII not dying early by hitting his head against a door? Francis I defeating Charles V at Pavia?
If such a victory happens, then what happens next?
Could we see an earlier rise of France as a power player in Europe?
Could this situation end up accelerating the drive towards italian unification in the long term?
Would France still have the need for an alliance with the ottomans? And, speaking of the ottomans, would Charles' weaker position favour them?
 
Is it possible for the main early modern french kings (Charles VIII, Louis XII, or Francis I) to effectively hold their gains in Italy, especially Naples and Milan, without succumbing to their enemies?
If so, then which PoD is best for this? Charles VIII not dying early by hitting his head against a door? Francis I defeating Charles V at Pavia?
If such a victory happens, then what happens next?
Could we see an earlier rise of France as a power player in Europe?
Could this situation end up accelerating the drive towards italian unification in the long term?
Would France still have the need for an alliance with the ottomans? And, speaking of the ottomans, would Charles' weaker position favour them?

Kill Charles VIII ! Let's have the Louis, the Bad and the Good.

PoD : the Dauphin Charles died at 5 or 6 (1475). After a few tries, Louis XI understands he would not have another son. Even if he dislikes him, the Duke of Orléans is the legitimate heir. Better to leave him the stronger state in Christianhood. A good thing would be a reconciliatory marriage Burgundy-Orléans (Louis and Mary have only a five-year age gap), but it would probably fail for the same reasons as OTL : the Netherlands elites are afraid of french dominion. Fortunately, there is always a Savoy princess when you need one, this one a niece of both Louis XI and his wife : Louise (b. 1462). When Mary of Burgundy dies (1482 - or butterfly?), Louis XI sees an opportunity, as OTL Treaty of Arras, with the engagement of Margarita of Austria to Louis of Orléans and Louise of Savoy firstborn son, Charles of Valois. When Louis XI dies (1483), Louis XII, sure of his alliance with the Savoy and of his rights, would aim for his legitimate patrimony : the duchy of Milan. Sure, the Anjou rights on the throne of Naples have merged with the crown, but why bother going for the other end of the peninsula when you have the richest province of Christiandom (save for these pesky Netherlands) at arms' length. Of course, no need to settle things with Aragon (why bother ?) or Austria, so Artois, Franche-Comté, Roussillon and Cerdagne stay french. The Duke of Brittany needs some lessons in realpolitik, but his feeble attempts to safeguard his duchy independence meet an early stop as his own nobility deserts him. His eldest daughter is engaged to Louis's second son, but it is well understood she would not be duchess of Britanny. In 1485 or so, the Kingdom of France has more or less the frontiers of OTL 1678 ! Pope Innocent VIII needs a strongman to put pressure on Ferdinand of Naples, so the wedding offer of second-tier french princess and the duchy of Valentinois for his son Franceschetto by Louis is fully appreciated. Lorenzo de' Medici is isolated, his family bank close to collapse. At Milan, young Gian Galeazzo is under the thumb of his uncle Lodovico il Moro, while his mother (and aunt to the Queen of France) is locked away in a castle. Venice is tempted by some discrete offers of Lombardy fiefdoms. In 1486, Furia Francese, Milan falls to the troops of the Franco-Savoyard Alliance. In 1487, Florence is also taken by the French and the Pope. Savoy gets Montferrato and a strip of Liguria, the Pope Sienna, the second-tiers lords become vassals (Genova and Modena to France, Ferrara to the Papacy, Mantova to Venice) and the King of France is Duke of Milan and perpetual podestà and rector magnificus of Florence.

How long will hold the precarious, four-way, equilibrium of Northern Italy ?
 
How about PANIC? The French just took a good chunk of Italy. Coalition against France?

A french-dominated Italy would be a utter nightmare to all involved.
 
How about PANIC? The French just took a good chunk of Italy. Coalition against France?

A french-dominated Italy would be a utter nightmare to all involved.

Maybe France former allies would turn on her. Probably, even. But OTL, they ended up with an Habsburg dominated Italy, which was not so great for them. Given the sheer manpower of France (especially TTL France) and the possible butterflying away of the Spanish-Habsburg match (as John of Aragon's wife would not be Margarita of Austria), there is no certainty in an eventual french defeat in Northern Italy.
 
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Maybe France former allies would turn on her. Probably, even. But OTL, they ended up with an Habsburg dominated Italy, which was not so great for them. Given the sheer manpower of France (especially TTL France) and the possible butterflying away of the Spanish-Habsburg match (as John of Aragon's wife would not be Margarita of Austria), there is no certainty in an eventual french defeat in Northern Italy.

So what stops the French from going down into the Peninsula?
I can't see Genoa and Venice simply letting France own the place, however.
A coalition appears likely, the question if they will dislodge the French.

Austria-Venice-Genoa-Papal States-Naples coalition against France?
 
So what stops the French from going down into the Peninsula?
I can't see Genoa and Venice simply letting France own the place, however.
A coalition appears likely, the question if they will dislodge the French.

Austria-Venice-Genoa-Papal States-Naples coalition against France?

Genoa at the time was under Milan's thumb, not really in position to turn on the local overdog. A cautious French king (remember, no Charles VIII in this TL) will aim to consolidate his gains in northern Italy rather than going for Naples. The Pope needs a check to Naples, especially if Naples is taken over by Aragon. I do not say there would be no strife, but France is in far better position. OTL, it took the might of the Hapsburg empire to drive her out of Italy. With a bigger France and no Spain-Netherlands-Austria union, the possibility for the french Kings to keep Milan is quite high. Again, when the Habsburg OTL got their hands on both Milan and Naples, they were not confronted by coalition over coalition. Same can go for France.
 
Something else to think about:

This is all bumping up against the Reformation and the resultant chaos in Germany and elsewhere. Doubly so if we are butterflying away Charles I and V's empire, leaving the HRE and Spain under different rulers (which will almost certainly affect how the Emperor reacts to Protestantism, given that he is both weaker without Spain and its colonies, and without the need to placate the devoutly Catholic Spaniards).
 
Something else to think about:

This is all bumping up against the Reformation and the resultant chaos in Germany and elsewhere. Doubly so if we are butterflying away Charles I and V's empire, leaving the HRE and Spain under different rulers (which will almost certainly affect how the Emperor reacts to Protestantism, given that he is both weaker without Spain and its colonies, and without the need to placate the devoutly Catholic Spaniards).

Actually, all this happens before the Reformation. One very potent butterfly is the identity of the Pope. The new political situation would see new figures in the Church. For example, Roderic Borgia was elected by the rallying of Ascanio Sforza. ITTL, Sforza is a man of no influence, thereby hurting the chances of Borgia.
 
Actually, all this happens before the Reformation. One very potent butterfly is the identity of the Pope. The new political situation would see new figures in the Church. For example, Roderic Borgia was elected by the rallying of Ascanio Sforza. ITTL, Sforza is a man of no influence, thereby hurting the chances of Borgia.
Some form of Reformation is almost certainly coming. Proto-Reform movements had been breaking out long before the POD (the Lollards and Hussites being the most famous, but hardly the only, examples, and you can arguably go back to various movements like the Franciscans or before). Changing the identity of the Pope isn't going to stop the general flow, even if the exact details and theology may turn out differently.

I also suspect you are being far too optimistic on the willingness of France's neighbors to just roll over and accept a fait accompli. OTL the Habsburgs and Valois spent literally centuries fighting in large part over the Burgundian inheritance, and the Italian Wars themselves lasted roughly half a century (and saw initial French success be completely reversed). While the Habsburgs don't have a direct blood claim ITTL, they will still be quite concerned about France encroaching on the Empire, and are likely to use all the Imperial tools at their disposal to limit those gains (and it's not like it was ever hard to find some excuse for a succession dispute in Early Modern Europe). A resurgent France makes a Spanish-Austrian alliance (with optional English participation on-and-off as OTL) very likely even if there isn't a shared ruler, and I'd expect any English king to make at least some minor objections to annexing Brittany wholesale (even Henry VII, one of the least warlike English kings of the pre-modern period, and one who owed his throne to French help, mounted at least a token military expedition, despite the instability of his own throne). So I'd expect French victory to take at least a couple of decades to firmly secure. A French victory is certainly doable, but it will likely take longer than you are portraying.
 
Some form of Reformation is almost certainly coming. Proto-Reform movements had been breaking out long before the POD (the Lollards and Hussites being the most famous, but hardly the only, examples, and you can arguably go back to various movements like the Franciscans or before). Changing the identity of the Pope isn't going to stop the general flow, even if the exact details and theology may turn out differently.

I also suspect you are being far too optimistic on the willingness of France's neighbors to just roll over and accept a fait accompli. OTL the Habsburgs and Valois spent literally centuries fighting in large part over the Burgundian inheritance, and the Italian Wars themselves lasted roughly half a century (and saw initial French success be completely reversed). While the Habsburgs don't have a direct blood claim ITTL, they will still be quite concerned about France encroaching on the Empire, and are likely to use all the Imperial tools at their disposal to limit those gains (and it's not like it was ever hard to find some excuse for a succession dispute in Early Modern Europe). A resurgent France makes a Spanish-Austrian alliance (with optional English participation on-and-off as OTL) very likely even if there isn't a shared ruler, and I'd expect any English king to make at least some minor objections to annexing Brittany wholesale (even Henry VII, one of the least warlike English kings of the pre-modern period, and one who owed his throne to French help, mounted at least a token military expedition, despite the instability of his own throne). So I'd expect French victory to take at least a couple of decades to firmly secure. A French victory is certainly doable, but it will likely take longer than you are portraying.

I agree with you on the broad picture. I just gave a quick story of an alt-1st Italian War, hence my question at the end of my first post. I do not believe in a EU4-style general coalition. Some Italian states would turn on France, but for others, the French alliance/protectorate is a real possibility.

For the Reformation, there is a need for change, it is undeniable. But the idea of an external reformation is no more inevitable than an internal one. Your point on Franciscans is especially significant : at a time and in a region when and where heresy was important, the Franciscans (and the other mendicants) were a reform drive inside the Church, showing a competent papacy could allow some space for an internal reform in front of growing contestation. This could be the case in the last decade of the 15th c., but not with the likes of Borgia or della Rovere. Saint Martin Luther, founder of the Order of Saint Paul Apostle (commonly known as the Lay Servants) ?
 
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