Do remember that he's going up against Bryan, and the press hated Bryan. And they'll also hate catholic Bonaparte. I'm trying to imagine the ridiculous headlines revolving around this election.
I'd say his chances are dead even, if not bad- he is coming off of the Roosevelt administration, one of the most popular ever, and going against Bryan, an also-ran who has a hard time distinguishing his own platform from his opponent's. But even then anti-catholicism is very potent. It'll be a rough race for sure.
The thing is, though, that anti-Catholicism is going to kill his prospects for the nomination before we get to see how badly it would hurt him in the general election. (With Taft, the GOP had a candidate who could be popular with Catholics--because of his record in the Philippines--without the political burden of being a Catholic himself. Though some fundamentalists did object to his Unitarianism...)
I don't think the Republicans are going to nominate a Catholic in 1908.
I realize we are to assume that his nomination for president somehow takes place, but if we want to start with more plausible assumptions, the best way to get Bonaparte to the presidency is to make him *vice*-president first, and have the president die in office. To be sure, I think it unlikely the Republicans would nominate a Catholic even for vice-president, but it is at least more plausible than their doing so for president, and would be less likely to hurt their ticket in November.
Hmm. Bonaparte would be a progressive from Maryland, so maybe a Midwestern conservative would be a good balance for his VP. Maybe Speaker Joseph Gurney Cannon if he's willing to accept the loss of relative power. Charles Fairbanks would also be a potential VP.Let's say Bonaparte is indeed the Presidential nominee, who is his Vice-Presidential pick? What are the state's which lead to victory? Does Bryan get his third nomination? What would Bonaparte's cabinet look like?