PC/WI: Poland DOWs Nazi Germany

First, is it plausible that through some diplomatic rangling similar to Bismark's effort with the French in 1870, that the Fuhrerreich is able to get Poland to declare war on Germany instead of the other way around in 1939?

If so, what could be done to cause it and what would be the repercussions if it occured? I'm assuming France and Britian couldn't honor their defense agreement.
Maybe a suprise Polish offensive into Silesia or recently occupied Bohemia could catch Hitler by suprise.

And off the top of my head, maybe if the Germans moved to blockade Danzig or possibly some other minor move that gave Poland enough of a Casus Belli, she may have done it
 
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I honestly doubt Poles would do anything like this. War was the last thing they wanted. Polish troops had strict orders to avoid reacting to German provocations (see Gleiwitz incident).
Poles were prepared for eventuality of a Nazi putsch in Danzig, i.e. Danzig Nazis officially taking over and proclaimimg reunification with the Reich. Poles had plans for intervention in Danzig, but ONLY in Danzig. At the end of August 1939 the Intervention Corps was disbanded.
A sea blockade of Danzig would be hard for Poles, but it would also be extremely hostile act from German side. I think Polish government would appeal to France and Britain that Polish rights are violated and asked for diplomatic help. Besides, Danizg was a popular port also for French and British ships. Would Germans also try to stop them?
 
If the Czech Crisis of Oct 1938 come to war then the Poles would have the option of supporting the French & mobilizing their army. Helping to put down a major long therm threat to Poland & gaining a few bits at the peace table might be worth it.
 
I updated the OP with this, but I wonder if Poland does indeed take an aggressive stance if provoked diplomatically, might they be able to catch the Germans off guard with a quick strike at Silesia or possibly recently occupied Bohemia?
 
Originally posted by GlobalHumanism
I updated the OP with this, but I wonder if Poland does indeed take an aggressive stance if provoked diplomatically, might they be able to catch the Germans off guard with a quick strike at Silesia or possibly recently occupied Bohemia?


Doubtful. Poland would need to mobilize the army, which would take them some time and would be noticed quite easily. Sure, Poles might actually surprise the Germans concerning place of an attack, but Polish offensive power was limited, and German with much larger mechanized force, good roads and railway network, not to mention better communication would be able to react quickly and efficiently.
And I still do not think Poles would actually decide to fire the first shot. They wanted to avoid the war they they could not win on their own and their trust in western allies had its limits.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Hmmm, ... IIRC there were polish militarys, who boasted in August '39 the polish army could be in Berlin in just a few days (can't find the source right now) ...
 
Hmmm, ... IIRC there were polish militarys, who boasted in August '39 the polish army could be in Berlin in just a few days (can't find the source right now) ...

I'm not quite sure what you're trying to say here, but the talk about being in the Berlin in few days was only street propganda - no high level commanders actually thought that.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the Czech Crisis of Oct 1938 come to war then the Poles would have the option of supporting the French & mobilizing their army. Helping to put down a major long therm threat to Poland & gaining a few bits at the peace table might be worth it.
They'd have to violate their non-aggression pact though...which would be diplomatically problematic as it was for Germany.
 
Originally posted by Carl Schwamberger
If the Czech Crisis of Oct 1938 come to war then the Poles would have the option of supporting the French & mobilizing their army. Helping to put down a major long therm threat to Poland & gaining a few bits at the peace table might be worth it.

Originaly posted by wiking
They'd have to violate their non-aggression pact though...which would be diplomatically problematic as it was for Germany.

If they won, who would blame them? They would cancel the pact first, and then attack a day or 2 later.
 

Deleted member 1487

If they won, who would blame them? They would cancel the pact first, and then attack a day or 2 later.
Few if any would trust them, which is worse than having a low credit score. I mean of course they could, but it would damage their international trustworthiness, just as Germany did by all of its violations of its agreements.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
As it was hinted before:

Make Danzig asking Germany for reunification. Let the Poles invade then Danzig, German soil, and you have a declaration of war, especially if German forces are attacked by Polish soldiers.
 
I updated the OP with this, but I wonder if Poland does indeed take an aggressive stance if provoked diplomatically, might they be able to catch the Germans off guard with a quick strike at Silesia or possibly recently occupied Bohemia?
Too late. They either need to signal Czechoslovakia they will join them or maybe at least signal French they will supply Czechoslovakia after September 1938 and after significant French offensive they will DOW. After March 1939 it is too late for Poland to attack Germany. It is allready late after Czechoslovak retreat from the borders.
 
They'd have to violate their non-aggression pact though...which would be diplomatically problematic as it was for Germany.
Probably less problematic if Czechoslovakia is fighting with French and British support. Especially if as said before they declared few days or hours Germans actions against Czechoslovakia as act against peace and Europe. They would be blamed maybe just by some neonazis over the beer 70 years later.
 
Few if any would trust them, which is worse than having a low credit score. I mean of course they could, but it would damage their international trustworthiness, just as Germany did by all of its violations of its agreements.

I don't agree.

First, I don't think any other power would hold it against Poland for intervening against Germany in the context of an Allied-German war over Czechoslovakia. Who is going to object specifically? I don't see anybody deciding the Poles were utterly treacherous warmongers who couldn't be trusted. Italy might complain a bit. And Stalin would use anything he could in his rhetoric. But in terms of real policy blowback? Nothing.

Second, in the text of the treaty the Poles insisted on stating that it did not nullify any previous international agreements, i.e. the Franco-Polish Alliance. While the terms of the Alliance did not oblige Poland to declare war on Germany upon a French DOW on Germany, I think the treaty's existence is going to give their diplomats a way to fulfill it.

"If, notwithstanding the sincerely peaceful views and intentions of the two contracting states, either or both of them should be attacked without giving provocation, the two governments shall take concerted measures for the defense of their territory and the protection of their legitimate interests."

"In case of German aggression against either Poland or France, or both, the two nations would aid each other to the fullest extent."

Poland would have an arguable case that any war as a result of the Czech crisis was a result of German aggression, and that their legitimate interests were threatened. Enough for diplomats to wiggle around.
 
Didn't the Poles get a bit of Czechoslovakia when the Germans invaded, or something like that? Seems they'd be unlikely to attack the Germans when they get something for nothing in return.
 
Didn't the Poles get a bit of Czechoslovakia when the Germans invaded, or something like that? Seems they'd be unlikely to attack the Germans when they get something for nothing in return.

Poles hold a twenty year old grudge over Tesin/Cieszyn area (and some bits and pieces here and there) where Poles were majority but it was important for Czechoslovakia. After WW1 there was supposed to be a plebiscite or division of land according to ethnic lines, but when Poland was distracted fighting bolsheviks, Czechs unilaterally grabbed it whole and the Entente put their stamp on for some or ther reason. The Polish landgrab was related to German one in the way as Poles noticed that Czechoslovakia is letting herself to be screwed over and they decided to get some meat for themselves, but that didn't mean the Poles suddenly somehow became Germany's buddies.

If they see a chance of ending the German threat for a couple of decades at least, if they see French, Czechs, Brits, maybe Italians and some Balkan states forming a coalition against Germany they are going to join. Especially if they have chance of getting some land or other concessions out of Germany.
 
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Poles hold a twenty year old grudge over Tesin/Cieszyn area (and some bits and pieces here and there)
Actually pieces here, pieces there annexed after Munich and Tesin had mostly Slovak population. Actually feelings in Slovakia was that Poles were after 1919 compensated for Tesin by Slovak villages in now Polish Spisz.

where Poles were majority but it was important for Czechoslovakia. After WW1 there was supposed to be a plebiscite or division of land according to ethnic lines, but when Poland was distracted fighting bolsheviks, Czechs unilaterally grabbed it whole and the Entente put their stamp on for some or ther reason.

Seems in Czechoslovakia there was feeling that while Czechoslovakia was distracted fighting Hungarian Bolshevisk, Poles held Kosice-Bohumin railway and situation was really really bed for troops in Slovakia fighting these red suckers. ;)

But anyway probably something could be figured out in 1938. Even Czechoslovak generality was requesting I believe in early 30-ties (before Hitler got to power) and even later to improve relation with Poland.
 
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