PC/WI- Menalamba Rebellion succeeded?

[Zachariah]

The Menalamba rebellion was a rebellion that emerged in central Madagascar, in response to a French expeditionary force occupying the capital city of the Merina Kingdom, Antananarivo, in September 1895, capturing the royal palace and imprisoning the queen and prime minister. In December 1895, two months after the French capture of Antananarivo, popular resistance to French rule emerged in the form of the Menalamba ("red shawl") Uprising. This guerrilla war against foreigners, Christianity, and political corruption, quickly spread throughout the island, and was principally conducted by common peasants who wore shawls smeared with the red laterite soil of the highlands.

The fighting was led by commoners, principally from Imerina, who rejected not only French rule but Christianity and the influence of Europeans among the Merina rulers. This resistance movement gained ground, even more so after the official annexation of Madagascar by the French on the 1st January 1896 following a successful campaign under General Jacques Duchesne, their subsequent declaration that Madagascar was their colony, and their move to exile the Malagasy Prime Minister Rainilaiarivony to Algiers (in Algeria) where he died the following year. Members of Ranavalona's court were accused of encouraging the rebels and many leading figures were executed, including the queen's uncle Ratsimamanga (brother of her favored adviser, Ramisindrazana) and her Minister of War, Rainandriamampandry. Ramisindrazana, the queen's aunt, was exiled to Reunion because the French were reluctant to execute a woman.

Initially, a civil governor, Hippolyte Laroche, was appointed to administer the territory, with the Merina monarch and much of her administration allowed to remain and continue managing certain internal affairs, but as little more than figureheads. But the increasing strength of the Menalamba rebels and the Malagasy resistance led the government of France to replace the island's civil governor with a military governor, General Joseph Gallieni, and was also a principal factor in their decision to exile Ranavalona III to Reunion Island later that same year. The rebellion was eventually violently quelled, with great difficulty, by General Gallieni over a year later; by which stage, the French government had decided that a civil governor was incapable of ensuring order and submission of the Malagasy people, and the French Parliament had voted to annex the island as a colony, dissolve the 103-year-old Merina monarchy, and install a military government headed by Gallieni. Queen Ranavalona III was exiled to Réunion and later to Algeria, where she died in 1917 without ever being allowed to return to Madagascar.

So then, how plausible might it be for the Menalamba Rebellion to have been successful? And how different might Madagascar have been if it had 'succeeded' (at the very least, in persuading the French to either withdraw from the island, or grant greater power and independence to the Merina monarchy, allowing it to either remain a protectorate in a similar manner to Cambodia and Laos, or to retain its independence in a manner vaguely akin to Thailand after the Franco-Siamese War)? Any thoughts on this?

 

[Ricard (i.e. Rdffigueira)]

I don't know about full-independence, France in 1896 was in a very good shape, and the Third Republic was more than willing to flex the muscles to assert their colonial hegemony. They had gone through serious conflicts in Indochina (as you pointed out) and in North Africa, and so Madagascar, which for them was a prize that they would not desire falling in the hands of a foreign power, is enough to justify a larger investment in war.

I mean, you see what happened in Algeria as late as the 1950s, after the country went through two World Wars. Perhaps not a sensible comparison, considering the very different geopolitical circumstances, but in late 19th Century, France was in a much better situation.

Now, I suppose that if the situation turned into a military quagmire through months or years of guerilla warfare, like the Italians in Ethiopia or the British in Afghanistan, you could see the colonial conflict escalating with the appearance of another European power willing to support the Malagasy against the French. Perhaps if the war goes long enough that Madagascar becomes a Fashoda Crisis-like episode. The only ones I can imagine going through this would be Germany or the UK. I'm having a hard time imagining that the Malagasy can deter France all by themselves. Perhaps if they bleed enough Frenchmen, even if they fail to obtain a restoration of a puppet Merina monarch, but something akin to a "home rule" with a local (even if more divided) administration, and a less pervasive military occupation. Some concessions can be made regarding the Christians missionaries, and this perhaps reduces the tensions.

Now, I got thinking that if the rebellion survives in full force as late as 1898, it could coincide with the Fashoda incident itself (if it is not butterflied away), and thus France's attentions would be turned to a possible war against Britain, while the British would take the opportunity of weakening the French in Africa by all means possible. We must then think if it is plausible that the UK goes to an early alt-WW for Madagascar and Sudan (and, after this, if they win the war, if they are willing to let Madagascar independent like Ethiopia...).

 

[Zachariah]

Know it's been a long time, but felt it'd be better to bump my own thread rather create a new identical one asking the same thing all over again. What do you lot think?