So, I've been musing on different possible outcomes for 1848 for a while, but most of them have either been used before or are too hard to work out. But now I've got another idea, inspired by
this old thread.
From Wikipedia:
The Great Powers having reached a compromise to end the revolt of Mehmet Ali, the Eastern Question lay dormant for approximately a decade until revived by the
Revolutions of 1848. Though Russia could have seized the opportunity to attack the Ottoman Empire—France and Austria were at the time occupied by their own insurrections—she chose not to do so. The Emperor Nicholas instead committed his troops to the defence of Austria, deeming that the goodwill established in the process would allow him to seize Ottoman possessions in Europe at a later date.
What if, instead of aiding Austria to put down the Hungarian revolt, Russia attacked the Ottoman Empire, attempting to gain suzerainty over Moldavia and Wallachia?
Fearful of Russian presence in the region, the Hungarians are much quicker to recall their regiments, allowing northern Italy (possibly Bohemia as well) to break away from the Austrian Empire. Under the leadership of Lajos Kossuth, Hungary too breaks away from the Empire.
But when the German liberals and nationalists go out of control, and the Emperor fears for his very life, the Hungarian nobility invite him, as King of Hungary, to rule over the lands of Hungary, which he grudgingly accepts. Though he does not officially recognize that he has lost control of the German territories of the Austrian Empire, they have slipped from his grasp, and though he now rules as King of Hungary, he still claims those territories as part of the Austrian Empire.
When the dust settles, the Frankfurt Parliament becomes the ruling body of a German Federation encompassing southern Germany and Austria (possibly Bohemia as well), but excluding the North German states, which become united under Prussia. Italy is united, and the Kingdom of Hungary is the successor state of the Austrian Empire. And due to Russian intervention, Moldavia and Wallachia have slipped out of the hands of the Ottoman Empire.
How plausible is this, and what effects might it have? What would the new states look like, and what alliances might develop?
