PC/WI: Liberal Germany, Separate Prussia, Italy, and Hapsburg Hungary after 1848

[Velkas]

So, I've been musing on different possible outcomes for 1848 for a while, but most of them have either been used before or are too hard to work out. But now I've got another idea, inspired by this old thread.

From Wikipedia:

The Great Powers having reached a compromise to end the revolt of Mehmet Ali, the Eastern Question lay dormant for approximately a decade until revived by the Revolutions of 1848. Though Russia could have seized the opportunity to attack the Ottoman Empire—France and Austria were at the time occupied by their own insurrections—she chose not to do so. The Emperor Nicholas instead committed his troops to the defence of Austria, deeming that the goodwill established in the process would allow him to seize Ottoman possessions in Europe at a later date.

What if, instead of aiding Austria to put down the Hungarian revolt, Russia attacked the Ottoman Empire, attempting to gain suzerainty over Moldavia and Wallachia?

Fearful of Russian presence in the region, the Hungarians are much quicker to recall their regiments, allowing northern Italy (possibly Bohemia as well) to break away from the Austrian Empire. Under the leadership of Lajos Kossuth, Hungary too breaks away from the Empire.

But when the German liberals and nationalists go out of control, and the Emperor fears for his very life, the Hungarian nobility invite him, as King of Hungary, to rule over the lands of Hungary, which he grudgingly accepts. Though he does not officially recognize that he has lost control of the German territories of the Austrian Empire, they have slipped from his grasp, and though he now rules as King of Hungary, he still claims those territories as part of the Austrian Empire.

When the dust settles, the Frankfurt Parliament becomes the ruling body of a German Federation encompassing southern Germany and Austria (possibly Bohemia as well), but excluding the North German states, which become united under Prussia. Italy is united, and the Kingdom of Hungary is the successor state of the Austrian Empire. And due to Russian intervention, Moldavia and Wallachia have slipped out of the hands of the Ottoman Empire.

How plausible is this, and what effects might it have? What would the new states look like, and what alliances might develop?

 

[King of Rome]

Assuming Russia follows this course and the Hungarians get skittish, the Hapsburg monarch still had troops loyal to him and not any nation-state. I don't see a proud Hapsburg admitting defeat for scraps.

 

[Velkas]

Assuming Russia follows this course and the Hungarians get skittish, the Hapsburg monarch still had troops loyal to him and not any nation-state. I don't see a proud Hapsburg admitting defeat for scraps.

Then what about reversing the fates of Hungary and Southern Germany?

The Empire is able to suppress the revolts in Germany and Bohemia, but Hungary falls from its grasp, where a liberal regime is installed. After the revolutions are over, the Empire turns towards Germany, appropriating ideas of German nationalism to unify the states of Southern Germany.

 

[King of Rome]

Then what about reversing the fates of Hungary and Southern Germany?

The Empire is able to suppress the revolts in Germany and Bohemia, but Hungary falls from its grasp, where a liberal regime is installed. After the revolutions are over, the Empire turns towards Germany, appropriating ideas of German nationalism to unify the states of Southern Germany.

To me that is highly more likely. This is alternate history after all, anythings possible, but using what you given here a Cislethanian Austrian Empire turning to South Germany after the creation of a Hungarian State seems more probable. That's me though.

The South Germans were Catholic and their leaders were more sympathetic to Vienna than Berlin.

 

[Velkas]

To me that is highly more likely. This is alternate history after all, anythings possible, but using what you given here a Cislethanian Austrian Empire turning to South Germany after the creation of a Hungarian State seems more probable. That's me though.

The South Germans were Catholic and their leaders were more sympathetic to Vienna than Berlin.

In the case of a Cislethanian Austrian Empire, what might happen with Galicia, Bukovina, and Dalmatia, as these territories would be cut off from the Empire by Hungary?

 

[King of Rome]

In the case of a Cislethanian Austrian Empire, what might happen with Galicia, Bukovina, and Dalmatia, as these territories would be cut off from the Empire by Hungary?

I believe that Galicia and Bukovina would be jumped by Russia, and Dalmatia has the prospect of independence or Hungarian domination. This sounds rough, but if Austria can redirect her efforts, it might be good in the long run.

 

[wolf_brother]

Well, the Russians did intervene in the Romanian principalities IOTL, so...

 

[jycee]

Well Gallicia is still somewhat adjacent to the Southern Germany via Moravia (assuming Bohemia and Moravia stay around in the new federation, which is likely). However they'll be more of an Eastern European colony of the Germans.

Also on the enlarged Prussia I have a feeling Hannover will stay independent, so it might be smaller. Does Denmark retain Schleswig-Holstein or does it go to Prussia in some war?

The biggest question though is what is Europe's overall reaction to Russia's attack on the Ottoman's?

 

[Velkas]

Well, the Russians did intervene in the Romanian principalities IOTL, so...

Then another option would be to have a revolution in Poland. The Russians move in to suppress the revolution, causing the Hungarians to withdraw their regiments. Then things happen the same as before...

Well Gallicia is still somewhat adjacent to the Southern Germany via Moravia (assuming Bohemia and Moravia stay around in the new federation, which is likely). However they'll be more of an Eastern European colony of the Germans.

Also on the enlarged Prussia I have a feeling Hannover will stay independent, so it might be smaller. Does Denmark retain Schleswig-Holstein or does it go to Prussia in some war?

The biggest question though is what is Europe's overall reaction to Russia's attack on the Ottoman's?

Hmm. I'll need to think those over some more...

 

[wolf_brother]

Then another option would be to have a revolution in Poland. The Russians move in to suppress the revolution, causing the Hungarians to withdraw their regiments. Then things happen the same as before...

Hmm. I'll need to think those over some more...

There was a revolution in Poland... And it was crushed IOTL by the Prussians and the Russians.

 

[CaliBoy1990]

Hungary looks awfully wonky and I doubt this would butterfly the Gadsden Purchase.....other than that, though, it does look nice. I also like the German Federation....very nice indeed.

 

[Velkas]

I think I'm going to have Hanover remain independent as the third German state. Hanover always did have that independent streak...

There was a revolution in Poland... And it was crushed IOTL by the Prussians and the Russians.

Right... Any suggestions, then? And wasn't the revolution only in the Prussian part of Poland? What if there was a revolution in the Russian part as well?

And I definitely need to research more into this period. Any good resources I can use?

 

[oberdada]

1. Do have a map, or alternative a list of German States to incorpurate into SouthGErmany and Prussia?
With the European Map it is to much guesswork.
2. Czech nationalist might try to set up their own country in this szenario.. (just a wild guess)
3. A prussian denish war over Schleswig-Holstein is very likely in the future.

 

[Eurofed]

I think I'm going to have Hanover remain independent as the third German state. Hanover always did have that independent streak...

Not really. They didn't like being forcibly annexed by Prussia too much, but they weren't any less sensible to German national sentiment than any other part of Germany. They would be happy to join (North) Germany just like the other German states, provided they can keep their own autonomy. You can simply have Prussia, Saxony, Hanover, and the other North German minors form a North German federation without Hanover being annexed by Prussia as IOTL.

A division between North Germany and South Germany might be an interesting butterfly that follows a preexisting cultural-religious divide, but any more division of Germany than that seems gratuitous Balkanization for the sake of Balkanization, and rather unlikely in the age of nationalism.

Right... Any suggestions, then? And wasn't the revolution only in the Prussian part of Poland? What if there was a revolution in the Russian part as well?

It's a quite likely development, if the liberal revolutions win in Germany, Italy, and Hungary.

 

[wolf_brother]

Any suggestions, then? And wasn't the revolution only in the Prussian part of Poland? What if there was a revolution in the Russian part as well?

The Greater Poland Uprising of 1848 bled over from Posen into Austrian and Russian Polish lands, and there were demonstrations in the later as well. Not so much 'revolution,' but certainly lets of protests, and quite a bit of tax evasion resistance. The Congressional Poles still remembered 1831 and weren't keen for a repeat.

 

[Eurofed]

The Congressional Poles still remembered 1831 and weren't keen for a repeat.

They might easily change their mind if the revolution is seemingly victorious on their borders, however, esp. if events somehow provide a restoration of Polish autonomy in Posen and/or Galicia.

 

[Marko]

In case of such a scenario it is more likely that Croats invite the Emperor to their corner of the world rather than the Hungarians. So you could end up with liberal Germany, nationalistic Hungary and monarchistic Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia.

 

[Eurofed]

In case of such a scenario it is more likely that Croats invite the Emperor to their corner of the world rather than the Hungarians. So you could end up with liberal Germany, nationalistic Hungary and monarchistic Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia.

As a matter of fact, you are quite right.

 

[Velkas]

1. Do have a map, or alternative a list of German States to incorpurate into SouthGErmany and Prussia?
With the European Map it is to much guesswork.
2. Czech nationalist might try to set up their own country in this szenario.. (just a wild guess)
3. A prussian denish war over Schleswig-Holstein is very likely in the future.

1. The map I made up is just a vague approximation. I'll need to look at the different states of the German confederation and see which would be likely to join Prussia and which Austria.
2. That would be possible, but it's also quite possible for Bohemia/Moravia to remain with South Germany, as they were part of the German Confederation and the Austrian Empire, and had a large German population.

Not really. They didn't like being forcibly annexed by Prussia too much, but they weren't any less sensible to German national sentiment than any other part of Germany. They would be happy to join (North) Germany just like the other German states, provided they can keep their own autonomy. You can simply have Prussia, Saxony, Hanover, and the other North German minors form a North German federation without Hanover being annexed by Prussia as IOTL.

Okay. Good to know.

In case of such a scenario it is more likely that Croats invite the Emperor to their corner of the world rather than the Hungarians. So you could end up with liberal Germany, nationalistic Hungary and monarchistic Croatia-Slavonia-Dalmatia.

That could be quite interesting. Why would that be more likely?

 

[Detlef]

Then what about reversing the fates of Hungary and Southern Germany?

The Empire is able to suppress the revolts in Germany and Bohemia, but Hungary falls from its grasp, where a liberal regime is installed. After the revolutions are over, the Empire turns towards Germany, appropriating ideas of German nationalism to unify the states of Southern Germany.

I´m having some troubles with that scenario.
In this proposal it´s Austrian - not Prussian - troops that suppress the revolts in (Southern?) Germany? And afterwards the grateful rulers of the Southern German states join an Austrian-South German Empire? With the Austrian Empire "appropriating ideas of German nationalism" to convince the population?

Hmmm....

1. I don´t think that even a smaller Austrian Empire can or would use "German nationalism" as an official policy. Remember Bohemia, Moravia, the Italian speaking parts?
   (And if Austria loses them all, then they:
   a) wouldn´t have enough troops to suppress revolts in Germany
   b) aren´t more powerful than Bavaria for example. So why accept an Austrian Emperor?)
2. In our TL the South German states stayed away from the Prussian dominated North German Confederation till 1871. It took a victorious war against France, public enthusiasm, lots of concessions (own armies, law-enforcement, diplomatic service etc) and bribes to get them to agree to a (highly federalized) German Empire. And here Austria - after centuries of expanding in the Balkans - just has to make a few speeches about "Germanness" to get them to agree? With the possibility that their troops might be used in Italy or Eastern Europe by the Austrian Emperor?
3. Austria at that time is pretty conservative. I don´t think they would follow Bismarck´s approach in our TL. Namely a German parliament with a progressive election law to win over some Liberals.
4. Which means that there will be quite some political opposition in the South German states. Baden for example. Especially since Austria suppressed the liberal revolts there. It also means that as soon as Northern Germany looks more liberal quite a few South Germans will look northwards....
   If Bismarck develops like in our TL I can see him using that.